Egypt 2012 presidential election
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Author Topic: Egypt 2012 presidential election  (Read 23652 times)
Tender Branson
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« Reply #100 on: May 28, 2012, 11:21:07 AM »

Mahmoud, who do you think wins ?

Probably Morsi, because the Brotherhood did already very well in the parliamentary elections ?

Looks like a vote between cancer and ebola to me ... Tongue
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Meeker
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« Reply #101 on: May 28, 2012, 12:06:02 PM »

Turnout seems low for being the first free election in several decades...
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politicus
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« Reply #102 on: May 28, 2012, 02:17:50 PM »

Danish state TV quote Al-Akhbar for saying that a court decision on june 11. can prevent "ex-Mubarak officials" from participating in the second round. Could give Sabahi a second chance.
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Mahmoud
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« Reply #103 on: May 28, 2012, 03:00:43 PM »

Mahmoud, who do you think wins ?

Probably Morsi, because the Brotherhood did already very well in the parliamentary elections ?

Looks like a vote between cancer and ebola to me ... Tongue
Well, it depends. If the MB can gather other political forces around them, like Fotouh and Sabahi's voters, then Morsi will win. If though they refuse to vote and boycott the second round, then it's a hard guess, with me believing Shafiq would have a slightly better chance.
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Mahmoud
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« Reply #104 on: May 28, 2012, 03:12:49 PM »

Danish state TV quote Al-Akhbar for saying that a court decision on june 11. can prevent "ex-Mubarak officials" from participating in the second round. Could give Sabahi a second chance.

Actually such a law was already made by the parliament around a month ago or so, that would have actually prevented Omar Sulaiman and Shafiq from running into elections. But the elections commitee strangely put them back into the race, and now there are marches demanding them to take Shafiq out of the second round, for Sabahi to be in. Well, we just wait and see.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #105 on: May 29, 2012, 02:13:47 AM »

Morsi will win over Fotouh Shafiq in the 2nd round.

Updated/fixed.
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politicus
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« Reply #106 on: May 29, 2012, 05:34:04 AM »
« Edited: May 29, 2012, 05:36:50 AM by fascistbeijingregime »

Have any of you seen any reliable data on the voting pattern of the Coptic Christians? It would be interesting to see their preferences. I guess you could deduct the info from voting pattern from certain districts, but I am unsure of the exact demographical distribution of Copts on a district level.  
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Insula Dei
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« Reply #107 on: May 29, 2012, 10:44:29 AM »

Have any of you seen any reliable data on the voting pattern of the Coptic Christians? It would be interesting to see their preferences. I guess you could deduct the info from voting pattern from certain districts, but I am unsure of the exact demographical distribution of Copts on a district level.  

Overwhelmingly Shafik I'd think. Likewise with the Sufi minority, I hear.
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Mahmoud
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« Reply #108 on: May 29, 2012, 01:41:13 PM »

Yes, the majority voted for Shafiq, but no exact numbers.
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RodPresident
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« Reply #109 on: June 02, 2012, 11:06:49 PM »

In Constitution, what is most likely? Egypt as federal state or unitary state? Federalism would be a not so unlegitimate way to prevent a big power for MB. Imagine a Sabbahi as Governor of Cairo.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #110 on: June 03, 2012, 10:39:52 AM »

Mahmoud, the conventional wisdom in the English language media seems to be that the outrage over the Mubarak verdict is sure to help Morsi.  Is this what people are saying in Egypt as well?
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
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« Reply #111 on: June 16, 2012, 02:26:33 PM »

Any idea what's going on there right now?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #112 on: June 16, 2012, 05:41:37 PM »

Here's an interesting roundup of turnout reports:

http://allafrica.com/stories/201206160623.html
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Beet
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« Reply #113 on: June 17, 2012, 03:33:44 PM »

This thread is pretty quiet...
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Nhoj
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« Reply #114 on: June 17, 2012, 03:35:54 PM »

I Dont think any results will be posted until at the earliest tomorrow.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #115 on: June 17, 2012, 03:41:33 PM »


I heard that a Muslim Brotherhood campaign worker was shot dead, but that's all the news I've heard.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #116 on: June 17, 2012, 04:22:10 PM »

Guardian election blog:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/middle-east-live/2012/jun/17/egypt-elections-shafiq-morsi-live?newsfeed=true

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It looks like Shafiq's people are accusing the Muslim Brotherhood of electoral fraud, rather than the other way around.....suggesting that Morsi is winning.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #117 on: June 17, 2012, 06:46:10 PM »

Latest update from the Guardian:

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The Mikado
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« Reply #118 on: June 17, 2012, 08:08:37 PM »

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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #119 on: June 17, 2012, 08:11:01 PM »

So it could still be a nailbiter?
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Mahmoud
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« Reply #120 on: June 17, 2012, 09:25:06 PM »
« Edited: June 17, 2012, 10:16:52 PM by Mahmoud »

Well, it's been a while since I posted here. Blame that on the exams Cheesy

Anyway, the first results show that Mursi is the new Egyptian president with 52.6% lead. That's around 11,973,841 votes, and Shafiq having 10,782,190 votes, or 47.4% of the valid votes.
Final results are coming out on Tuesday Thursday.
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rob in cal
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« Reply #121 on: June 18, 2012, 11:01:58 AM »

Has Mursi said anything about the court invalidating the parliamentary elections?  Can he do anything about it once he's president?
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The Mikado
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« Reply #122 on: June 22, 2012, 01:50:49 PM »

Results to be certified this weekend, possibly sooner.  Rumors abound that SCAF will just declare Shafiq president.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #123 on: June 24, 2012, 03:36:59 AM »

Apparently, results will be released today at 3pm local time, which I think is just over 4 hours from now.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #124 on: June 24, 2012, 09:05:49 AM »

The Election Commission guy is speaking now - he's not actually announced the result yet, he's just going on about all of the appeals etc.
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