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| | | | |-+  Which one of these three states does Obama have the best chance to pick-up?
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Poll
Question: Best pick-up oppurtunity?
Arizona   -34 (65.4%)
Georgia   -8 (15.4%)
Missouri   -10 (19.2%)
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Total Voters: 52

Author Topic: Which one of these three states does Obama have the best chance to pick-up?  (Read 1397 times)
Chris B
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« on: May 05, 2012, 03:51:23 pm »

I'm going to say AZ since Romney is doing so poorly with Hispanics. Though MO seems possible if Romney can't excite white working class voters.
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Snowstalker's Last Stand
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« Reply #1 on: May 05, 2012, 03:59:31 pm »

Romney will get ~30% of the Hispanic vote overall, and I believe AZ Hispanics are slightly more Republican than, say, California Hispanics. Also, Romney has Mormons and affluent suburbia.

MO, on the other hand, was razor-thin for McCain in 2008, and while the Scots-Irish veteran could appeal to the heartland, Romney won't be as effective.
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R2D2
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« Reply #2 on: May 05, 2012, 04:09:35 pm »

Arizona.
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #3 on: May 05, 2012, 04:36:37 pm »

I believe AZ Hispanics are slightly more Republican than, say, California Hispanics.

Not much anymore since the AZ immigration law a few years ago. Plus AZ Hispanics and CA Hispanics are mainly of the same stock, so they won't too much different.
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« Reply #4 on: May 05, 2012, 04:44:42 pm »

Missouri is slighly more likely than Arizona. Georgia wont be competitive till 2016.
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« Reply #5 on: May 05, 2012, 10:48:03 pm »

Arizona went R in 2008  because of a Favorite Son -- by less than the usual difference that a Favorite Son offers. The Hispanic vote must be extremely alienated with statewide Republicans... even more than in 2008.

A bare win by President Obama of this state is 'progress while standing still'.
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« Reply #6 on: May 05, 2012, 11:14:07 pm »

If Obama doesn't win Georgia in 2012, it probably won't have a shot at going Dem until 2020.

If Obama wins in 2012, then a Republican will most likely win next cycle, and even by then he/she will take Georgia with them. It 2020 shapes up to be a competitive election, then Georgia's demographics will have had sufficient time to catch up with its voting behavior and it will vote along the lines of the nation as a whole.

Totally weird thinking about the year 2020. We might all be dead by then, if the Mayans were right after all.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #7 on: May 06, 2012, 02:49:00 am »

Georgia isn't there yet.

While Missouri was much closer than Arizona in 2008, I believe that MO is trending Rep and AZ is trending dem, which to me makes it slightly more likely that he pics up AZ.

All three are very long shots though.
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Zagg
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« Reply #8 on: May 06, 2012, 08:06:02 pm »

The best chance? Arizona. Will he carry any of them? No.
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