What happened to California between 1988 and 1992?

[freepcrusher]

here is the PVI of California each year since 1912

1912 N/A (No GOP Nominee on Ballot)
1916 R+1.4
1920 R+9.3
1924 R+22.2
1928 R+6.6
1932 D+1.9
1936 D+5.4
1940 D+3.1
1944 D+3
1948 R+2.2
1952 R+1.8
1956 D+2.2
1960 R+.4
1964 R+2.1
1968 R+1.3
1972 D+4.8
1976 R+2
1980 R+4.3
1984 D+1
1988 D+2.1
1992 D+5
1996 D+2.5
2000 D+5.9
2004 D+6.2
2008 D+8.6

As you can pretty much see, the state has always been rather schizophrenic in its swings. The state was a pretty solid GOP state initially and then shifted to FDR in the 30s. It trended republican with Dewey (the governor was the vp pick) but gave Stevenson a higher % than his national average in 1956, possibly due to the central valley's dislike of ETB. Then in 1960, it trended slightly democrat again due to Nixon being on the ballot.

In 1964, it voted 2 points more republican than the national average because the republicans probably had a higher ceiling back then as Goldwater managed to win a lot of the suburban areas in southern California. 1968 was almost a uniform swing from 1964. 1972 is an interesting election because Nixon, a hometown son, received almost lukewarm support from his home state. California in the early 1970s was in a bad recession and in the early 70s it was the first time since the 19th century that there was net outmigration from CA to other states.

In the early 1970s, it was thought that CA was going to become a safely democrat state. Reagan's approval ratings were fairly subpar, and the state had recently elected two new democrat senators. This was further evidence in 1974 when Jerry Brown was elected governor, the democrats got legislative super majorities and Alan Cranston was re-elected with 60%. But in 1976, the state voted for Ford, probably because the state still preferred a republican in the mold of Earl Warren then someone like Carter who was probably viewed as a white trash messiah. Carter on the ballot probably hurt John Tunney as he was unseated that year.

Another thing that delayed the state's leftward shift was that the state economy picked up steam in the late 1970s and there was an influx of right wing ideas like prop 13. It also helped that Ronald Reagan, a favorite son, was on the ballot in 1980 and many democrat voters presumably didn't vote after 7 PM. This was probably why James Corman, a SFV congressman, lost re-election. The state did give Reagan and Bush a smaller winning margin than its national average but the reason the state still was considered a battleground was because the state had a huge population growth and the aerospace industry was still booming.

The big change happened in the early 90s when the aerospace industry collapsed with the end of the cold war and unemployment was approaching ten percent. In the early 90s, there was a net outmigration from the state and there were other events such as the Rodney King riots and the Northridge earthquake that caused people to GTFO. California Governor Pete Wilson had Taftian approval ratings. 1994 however was sort of the last major victory for the California republican party. The issue of prop 187 helped Pete Wilson win re-election with 55 percent of the vote, helped the gop sweep the state house and nearly win the state senate and split the congressional delegation. Dianne Feinstein also nearly lost that year.

But after 1994, the state began a sustained leftward shift.