Japan 2012

[Iannis]

Based on personal tabulation of numbers in PR list I get

LDP        27.63%
NKP        11.83%  -> LDP+NKP 39.46%
JRP         20.83%
DPJ         16.00%
PNP          0.12% -> DPJ+PNP  16.12%
YP             8.72%
JCP           6.13%
Future      5.69%
SDP          2.36%
Daichi       0.58%
HRP          0.36%
NRP          0.22%

So LDP+NKP could not even cross 40%.  This is the worst showing by LDP+NKP in the PR vote since the 1993 system was established except for 2009.  

From a DPJ point of view, there is not time to lose.  They have to hope that the new LDP-NKP stumbles and the JRP starts falling apart.  Even if that were to take place the only way DPJ can take advantage of this is if it forms an alliance with itself, SDP and Future Party into a broad center-left block.  Only then can it take advantage of problems in LDP-NKP and JPR in the 2013 upper house elections.  Or else JRP might take the position of the main opposition party and DPJ will turn into another SDP. 

This enlights very well all the defects of FPTP system, a totally undemocratic representation.

Japan has a mixed FPTP-PR system.

The FPTP prevails largely, 300 seat out of 480 are assigned with FPTP

[big bad fab]

So maybe FPTP is not the worst thing in the world. Ugh.

Quoting in case you delete it one day

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Shouldn't the fptp figures be seen as more 'important' if those are what determine the vast majority of seats?

[minionofmidas]

Well, Your Party is more Libertarian and JPR more of a populist right.  I personally rather like YR.  On the same topic, I would argue that NKP which is LDP's ally is not that right wing.  It is Japan's version of the Christian Democrats, or NKP would argue.  On the hawkish dovish axis, NKP is quite dovish and it is economically centrist.

The old Komeito, pre 8-party-coalition and then alliance with the LDP, was a center-left party.

[jaichind]

I am still working on calculating the FPTP votes.  I suspect where was LDP+NKP got 39.46% in PR, they will get around 45% of the FPTP.  Reason is mostly because DPJ, Future Party, and JRP did not run candidates in 300 seats so supporters of those parties would then vote for the person with the best name reconigtion which often is the LDP candidate since LDP has the best farm league of all parties given its domination of prefecture assemblies.  Also this election looks a lot like the 2000 elections where LDP+NKP got 41.7% of the PR vote but won 271 out of 480 seats because of the split in opposition between DPJ, Ozawa's Liberal Party, and SDP.  In that election LDP+NKP got around 45.35% of the vote, I suspect this time it will be similar.

[jaichind]

Not sure what you mean.  If Japan had used a all FPTP, the the scale of the LDP+NKP victory will be even greater.  of course under a pure FPTP system, parties like SDP would have died out years ago.

So maybe FPTP is not the worst thing in the world. Ugh.

[RogueBeaver]

PV has been tabulated. LDP: 43% FPTP, 28% PR. DPJ: 23% FPTP, 15% PR. JRP actually got a higher PR vote than DPJ.

And Abe will be confirmed on the 26th.

[jaichind]

Looks like LDP+NKP FPTP vote was 44.49% and PR was 39.69%, so my guess of LDP-NKP FPTP vote of 45% was pretty accurate.  What is interesting, as I pointed out, is that this election looks a lot like 2000 election, when LDP led block got 45.35% of the FPTP vote and 41.7% of the PR vote.  In 2000, LDP led block got 191 FPTP seats versus 246 this time and got 80 PR seats versus 79 this time.  There were complaints back in 2000 about how the system was not fair and that an unpopular incumbant ruling block that could only get 41.7% support would be able to win an election with a significant majority.  This election is an even more extreme version of 2000 election. 

I will spend time mapping doing my own calculation of the FPTP and PR vote because I am interested in figuring out where the extra 5% the LDP-NKP got in FPTP versus PR came from.

[jaichind]

Another way to compare LDP+NKP performance in 2012.  This is the lowest number of votes the LDP led block go since 1996.  LDP+NKP got 23,740,931 for PR vote and 26,529,190 in FPTP vote in 2012.  In 2000, LDP led block got 24,952,791 for PR vote and 27,611,760 in FPTP vote.  LDP+NKP in 2012 vote underperformed 2000 2003 2005 and 2009.

[Zuza]

It is strange for me that JCP get significantly more FPTP votes than PR votes (even taking into account that it run candidates in nearly every constituency).

[jaichind]

That is exactly the point.  LDP-NKP ran candidates in every district as did JCP.  While DPJ, JRP, YP, SDP, and Future Party all only ran candidates in some of the districts.  So anti-LDP voters who did not have their favored party run in their district sometimes vote JCP.  YP and NKP voters tend to vote LDP if no YP or NKP candidates ran in their district but center left voters often vote JCP if they found no good alternative in their district.

It is strange for me that JCP get significantly more FPTP votes than PR votes (even taking into account that it run candidates in nearly every constituency).

[minionofmidas]

The wik table here seems to be missing a party that had one seat before the election and zero after. Anybody happen to know what party that is?

[Zuza]

The wik table here seems to be missing a party that had one seat before the election and zero after. Anybody happen to know what party that is?

Probably New Party Nippon.

[minionofmidas]

Thanks!

[minionofmidas]

For my amusement, results if all 480 seats were distributed according to the PR block vote. Each block constituency was awarded as many seats as it actually has + fptp constituencies included within it; D'Hondt with no unnatural thresholds was used  as *I think* that's what Japan uses for the current 180 - certainly didn't spot any result contradicting that.

LDP 142 (+6), JRP 100 (+100), DPJ 79 (-137), NK 56 (+1), YP 41 (+23), JCP 28 (-3), TPJ 23 (+23), SDP 8 (-9), NPD 3 (0), PNP 0 (-4)

Of course the actual voting result would probably have been a fair bit different under such a system.


Now with 2009 comparison figures!

[jaichind]

Look over each PR zone and the FPTP the vote and PR vote I am beginning to map out how the PR vote mapped to FPTP votes.  Trends I found were the following

1) LDP+NKP PR voters voted LDP+NKP FPTP.  No surprise here since there was a LDP+NKP candidate in every district.
2) JRP and YP voted for their party FPTP candidates, but where there was none split their vote evenly between LDP+NKP and the center-left parties (DPJ, Future Party, SDP).  In fact since in Osaka there were several districts where JRP and YP endorced the NKP candidate the "free choice" JRP/YP voters that were not able to vote for their own party lean slightly left.
3) Future Party and SDP voted DPJ where they could not vote for their own party, sometimes they voted JCP.
4) DPJ PR voters voted Future and SDP where their candidate was not running but some went to JCP.

One thing that is different in 2012 versus 2009 was that the there was no tactical voting by JCP PR voters.  In 2009 3% out of the 7% voters that voted JCP voted for the center left DPJ alliance in the FPTP vote.  This time around JCP got a surplus FPTP vote mostly based on protest (refusal to vote LDP by center-left voters).  This is part of my point earlier that the real mistake of the DPJ was (asaide from the Ozawa split ito the Future Party) was the split with the SDP.  A broad cente-left alliance of DPJ and SDP (as wwell as Future Party) would give the center-left voter a choice that could win so their vote would not go to the hopeless JCP.  In fact such a alliance would give JCP voters a tactical choice of voting for this llaiance.  This allaince is the basis of a DPJ comeback,especially give the fact that JRP and YP voters are not all wedded into votinh LDP  if left a hard choice of LDP vs DPJ.
 

[Zuza]

Look over each PR zone and the FPTP the vote and PR vote I am beginning to map out how the PR vote mapped to FPTP votes.  Trends I found were the following

1) LDP+NKP PR voters voted LDP+NKP FPTP.  No surprise here since there was a LDP+NKP candidate in every district.
2) JRP and YP voted for their party FPTP candidates, but where there was none split their vote evenly between LDP+NKP and the center-left parties (DPJ, Future Party, SDP).  In fact since in Osaka there were several districts where JRP and YP endorced the NKP candidate the "free choice" JRP/YP voters that were not able to vote for their own party lean slightly left.
3) Future Party and SDP voted DPJ where they could not vote for their own party, sometimes they voted JCP.
4) DPJ PR voters voted Future and SDP where their candidate was not running but some went to JCP.

One thing that is different in 2012 versus 2009 was that the there was no tactical voting by JCP PR voters.  In 2009 3% out of the 7% voters that voted JCP voted for the center left DPJ alliance in the FPTP vote.  This time around JCP got a surplus FPTP vote mostly based on protest (refusal to vote LDP by center-left voters).  This is part of my point earlier that the real mistake of the DPJ was (asaide from the Ozawa split ito the Future Party) was the split with the SDP.  A broad cente-left alliance of DPJ and SDP (as wwell as Future Party) would give the center-left voter a choice that could win so their vote would not go to the hopeless JCP.  In fact such a alliance would give JCP voters a tactical choice of voting for this llaiance.  This allaince is the basis of a DPJ comeback,especially give the fact that JRP and YP voters are not all wedded into votinh LDP  if left a hard choice of LDP vs DPJ.
 

Are there any differences between JRP and YP voters behavior? I suppose YP voters more easily than JRP voters supported centre-left parties.

Did YP voters always voted for JRP candidate (if their own candidate was not on the ballot) and vice versa?

[jaichind]

Using some simple regression analysis, I found that all things equal, 75% of YP PR voters that did not go to YP FPTP candidates went to LDP+NKP FPTP candidates.  Likewise, only 36% of JRP PR voters that did not go to JRP FPTP candidates when to LDP+NKP FPTP candidates.  This means that when given a choice of LDP+NKP or other center left parties (DPJ, SDP, Future Party) when JRP candidates are not available, JRP voters tend to vote center left over LDP-NKP by 2 to 1.  This leads me to feel that the JRP voter are really made up of anti-LDP but disgruntled former DPJ 2009 voters.  If JRP fails or fall apart, they will likely not vote or go back to DPJ.  There is high policy overlap between YP and neoliberal elements of LDP so that so many of YP voters go with LDP-NKP is really not a surprise.  

[RogueBeaver]

The Noda cabinet has resigned in advance of Abe's confirmation vote.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The Noda cabinet has resigned in advance of Abe's confirmation vote.

Yep. Abe to take office presently. It's the 26th in Japan now.

[Zuza]

This leads me to feel that the JRP voter are really made up of anti-LDP but disgruntled former DPJ 2009 voters.  If JRP fails or fall apart, they will likely not vote or go back to DPJ.

If so, then I doubt that JRP has a chance to become main alternative to LDP (especially if DPJ will manage to reunite Japanese centre-left). Most voters have a short memory, and I guess that most ex-DPJ voters will forget and forgive DPJ by the time of the next elections.

[jaichind]

Another thing JRP should be on the lookout for is that the new JRP members of the diet are mostly new and not vetted for scandals.  I am sure the media will flush out some of these skeletons and this will have a negative impact on the JRP image.  I suspect they will not do as well in the 2013 upper house elections. 

[jaichind]

New LDP-NKP starts off strong in post election polling.  This can fall very quickly if economic outlook does not change for the positive soon.  I also suspect a lot of this are DPJ supporters refusing to be polled or saying they support no party after the DPJ was just smashed in the recent elections.

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The support rating for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's new Cabinet stood at 62.0 percent against a disapproval score of 21.8 percent, an opinion poll by Kyodo News showed Thursday.
In the nationwide telephone survey conducted Wednesday and Thursday, support for the Democratic Party of Japan, now an opposition party after its humiliating defeat in the Dec. 16 general election, was 8.6 percent.
The Japan Restoration Party led by former Tokyo Gov. Shintaro Ishihara was in second place at 13.0 percent after the Liberal Democratic Party, which earned 34.3 percent.

[Famous Mortimer]

The Tomorrow Party, founded about a month ago to unite anti-Noda forces to the left of the LDP, will break up.

It looks like Ichirō Ozawa will take most of their elected members and probably re-join the DPJ, which just elected a new leader who's close to Ozawa.

The rump Tomorrow Party will be strongly left-wing but only have 2 or 3 elected members.

[Benj]

The Tomorrow Party, founded about a month ago to unite anti-Noda forces to the left of the LDP, will break up.

It looks like Ichirō Ozawa will take most of their elected members and probably re-join the DPJ, which just elected a new leader who's close to Ozawa.

The rump Tomorrow Party will be strongly left-wing but only have 2 or 3 elected members.

They only have one Diet member and are thus derecognized. Ozawa Ichiro will probably stick it out on his own as his new group will get official recognition, though he may go back to the DPJ. The only remaining Tomorrow Party Diet member is a recent defectee from the SDP who may go back there, or she may join the environmentalist/anti-nuclear Green Wind, which lost its two Representatives at the election but has four Councillors and thus needs another member for official recognition (which requires five Diet members across both houses). No idea what Kada Yukiko will do, but presumably her fantastic adventure into national politics is over. Unfortunate; I like her.