Japan 2012

[jaichind]

     July 7 (Bloomberg) -- Government officials close to
Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda told senior members of
the Liberal Democratic Party, the biggest opposition group, that
a general election will be held before the end of this year,
Kyodo News reported, citing people familiar with the matter.

[jaichind]

LDP will be back after the next election.  But watch out for Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T%C5%8Dru_Hashimoto).  He represent a new force on a political scene where people are fed up with the two major parties.  He is for easing the Constitution's war-renouncing Article 9 and might tie up with Ozawa's new party.  I think this change in policy for Japan makese sense.  Even as a Chinese nationalist with my differences with Japan's past I feel that Japan should be able to be normal country with a normal military and independent foreign policy.  Just how long can one beat up a country over what happen back in WWII.

[jaichind]

     Yukio Hatoyama, a former prime minister and force in the ruling 
Democratic Party of Japan, indicated Saturday there is a possibility 
he might back a no-confidence motion if the opposition submitted one 
against Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda's administration, increasing 
the chances of the Noda government falling and a snap election being 
called.
     Hatoyama, whose party membership was suspended this week as 
punishment for voting against sales tax hike legislation that passed 
the House of Representatives last week, has formed a study group with 
about 20 other DPJ members of similar status. Ichiro Ozawa and 36 
other lower house members resigned from the ruling party, as they 
faced expulsion for also voting against the tax bill.
     "The Noda administration has moved far from the DPJ's original 
policies," Hatoyama said in answer to a question after a lecture in 
Beijing. "There are many points I cannot agree with." 
     But Hatoyama said it was not clear how we would vote if a 
no-confidence motion were brought against the Noda government.
     "From my policy standpoint of having opposed the tax hike bill, 
I have some inclination to side with a no-confidence motion, but the 
situation does not allow me to easily come to a conclusion," he said.
     If Hatoyama's group wholly backed a no-confidence motion, the 
ruling coalition of Noda's DPJ and the tiny People's New Party could 
fail to block it and Noda could be forced to either have his Cabinet 
resign en masse or to dissolve the lower house for a general election.

[jaichind]

Does Hashimoto have any traction outside Kansai, though?  From what I'd heard, he wants to basically be the new Ishihara, making Osaka into his own fief.

For now I think he will keep his activities in the KinKi region.  But KinKi region is quite large and he is on his way to being the largest political force there.  He will very likely form alliances with other political forces in the next Diet elections as well making him a national figure if his block makes breakthroughs. 

[jaichind]

But KinKi region is quite large

Insert canned laughter here, right?

I guess my Chinese bias comes in here.  The places is 近畿 and when pronounced in Chinese Mandrain is is very close to KinKi.  Sometimes it is called 関西 or Kansai where the similiarity to the Chinese Mandrain way of pronouncing it is much larger so I am used to calling that area KinKi.

[jaichind]

Osaka mayor eyes political realignment, hints at tie-up with Nod

OSAKA, July 10 Kyodo 
     Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto, who also leads a political group in 
the western Japan city, said Tuesday he is expecting a national 
political realignment to take place and suggested the possibility of 
a tie-up between his group and Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda's ruling 
party.
     The mayor told reporters at Osaka city hall that he believes the 
main opposition Liberal Democratic Party and the ruling Democratic 
Party of Japan led by Noda will likely reorganize in the near future. 
"If politicians rally together for the premier, they will form a very 
strong administration," he said.
     "There are many rank-and-file LDP members who share the 
premier's vision. If they join forces and create a new group, it 
would gain a high approval rating," Hashimoto said.
     The mayor also said Noda's basic ideas, such as introducing a 
system for the direct election of the prime minister and accelerating 
decentralization to give more power to regions, are shared by his 
political group called "Osaka Ishin no Kai" (Osaka restoration group).
     Hashimoto had been rather critical of Noda's political skills 
but spoke highly of the premier Tuesday, saying he "has steadfastly 
made (important political) decisions."
     Noda's plan to double the nation's consumption tax rate from the 
current 5 percent has led to the recent departure of former DPJ 
leader Ichiro Ozawa and his allies from the ruling party.
     The Osaka mayor has expressed his readiness to enter national 
politics, suggesting his group would field candidates in the next 
general election that Noda could call at any time.

[jaichind]

Ozawa courting Hashimoto for tieup

OSAKA — Former Democratic Party of Japan power broker Ichiro Ozawa is saying he would welcome a tieup with Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto in the next Lower House election.

The appeal, initiated Sunday, to the popular Hashimoto, who plans to field up to 300 candidates and hopes to capture 200 seats, came as the mayor and his supporters fine tune their political platform by calling for the national consumption tax to be turned into a local tax, and for a national referendum on whether to revise Article 9 of the Constitution.

Ozawa, expected to form a new political party Wednesday with around 50 followers, said his political philosophy is in tune with Hashimoto's Osaka Ishin no Kai (One Osaka).

"Hashimoto says that unless the fundamental way Japan is governed is changed, things will get worse. I've been saying this for a long time, and have emphasized that power must devolve from the central government to the local regions," Ozawa said on NHK.

"Hashimoto's thinking is basically the same as mine, and I want to tie up with those who think along similar lines."

Last week, Osaka Ishin no Kai finalized its political manifesto for the Lower House election. Though there were few changes from the basic platform released earlier this year, the revised version doesn't come out for or against raising the consumption tax. Instead, the group calls for it to become a local tax administered by local governments.

"The way to change Japan is by making the consumption tax a local tax, which will help local governments achieve independence from Tokyo and realize a system of semiautonomous regions," Hashimoto said last week.

The mayor believes that, along with the question of whether to keep using nuclear power, the structure of the sales tax will be the main issue in the next poll.

But he and Osaka Ishin no Kai have also stirred controversy among potential allies with another proposal, which is to revise the Constitution to allow revision by a simple majority vote instead of a two-thirds majority and then hold a national referendum on whether to revise Article 9, the passivist clause.

Tokyo Gov. Shintaro Ishihara said late last week that, rather than revise Article 9, the Constitution should be scrapped entirely. The governor, who plans to field his own supporters in the election, is a close ally of Hashimoto and would likely tie up with him after the election.

However, Ishihara and Ozawa have long been political opponents. Many in Osaka Ishin no Kai are reluctant to join forces with Ozawa, saying it's better to remain on good terms with Ishihara and that Hashimoto's rising popularity in Kansai and elsewhere means it's unnecessary to court Ozawa.

[jaichind]

Iwate governor to part with DPJ and join Ozawa's planned party

Iwate Gov. Takuya Tasso said Monday he will part with the ruling Democratic Party of Japan this week and join the new party expected to be headed by former DPJ leader Ichiro Ozawa.

"The new Ozawa party is expected to lead moves to open up new politics in Japan while standing by the people," Tasso told a press conference.

Tasso was elected governor for the first time in April 2007 after serving as a House of Representatives lawmaker from the DPJ. He is now in his second four-year term.

Ozawa and dozens of other DPJ lawmakers close to him bolted from the DPJ last week after casting dissenting votes against bills to hike the consumption tax during a Lower House plenary vote. Ozawa is a veteran Lower House member elected from a constituency in Iwate, one of the three prefectures hit hardest by the March 11 earthquake and tsunami last year.

[jaichind]

That's my hope. The worst case scenario is a more annoying repeat of 1993-6 with even less getting done.

Even back in 2006-2008 there were all kinds of talks/rumors of realignements where significant parts of the "reform" wings of LDP and DPJ would merge into a new party.  DPJ's landslide victory in 2009 ended such talks.  I think we might be entering into another period (like 1993-6) where there will be significant political realignment. This will be a political version of the Sengoku period of the 1500s (or 戦国時代) In theory this benifits Ozawa but he is not the same Ozawa of the 1990s. Local power brokers like Hashimoto I think will benifit due to disappointment with national parties.  I personally like Your Party, I think it has a lot of potential but not sure it will come out a winner in all this.

[jaichind]

A history of Ozawa

     The following is a chronology of major events related to former  
Democratic Party of Japan leader Ichiro Ozawa, who launched a new  
party with his allies on Wednesday after breaking ranks with the DPJ.
     December 1969 -- Ozawa wins seat in the House of Representatives  
for the first time as a member of the Liberal Democratic Party.
     August 1989 -- Ozawa is promoted to LDP secretary general.
     June 1993 -- Ozawa quits the LDP and forms Shinseito, or Japan  
Renewal Party.  This leads to the fall of the LDP government.
     December 1994 -- Ozawa launches Shinshinto, or New Frontier  
Party.
     January 1998 -- Ozawa forms the Liberal Party, which is then
allied with LDP
     September 2003 -- The Liberal Party merges with the DPJ.
     April 2006 -- Ozawa becomes DPJ leader.
     May 2009 -- Ozawa resigns as party leader over a political funds  
scandal, becomes acting leader in charge of elections.
     September -- The Cabinet led by DPJ chief Yukio Hatoyama is  
launched, with Ozawa assuming the post of the party's secretary  
general.
     June 2010 -- Ozawa resigns as DPJ secretary general, while  
Hatoyama resigns as prime minister.
     January 2011 -- Ozawa faces mandatory indictment over the funds  
scandal.
     April 2012 -- Ozawa wins acquittal at a district court.
     June 26 -- Ozawa votes against a tax-hike bill in the lower  
house.
     July 2 -- Ozawa and his allies submit letters of resignation  
from the DPJ.
     July 11 -- Ozawa launches new party "Kokumin no Seikatsu ga  
Daiichi," which roughly means putting people's lives first.

[jaichind]

It is also funny that when I do a search on Youtube for Ozawa to watch videos on developments for Ozawa's new party, all I get is videos of porn star "Maria Ozawa."

[jaichind]

Most believe Ozawa's new party not a game-changer; Noda's rating drifts lower

Note that  Hashimoto's outfit level is support is almost as high as DPJ.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

More than 80 percent of voters think the new party formed by former Democratic Party of Japan leader Ichiro Ozawa will not significantly impact politics, a survey said Sunday.

The nationwide survey by Kyodo News, which drew responses from 1,012 voters on Saturday and Sunday, also said that the approval rating for Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda's Cabinet had fallen 1.8 points since June to 28.1 percent and that its disapproval rating rose 5.7 points to 60 percent.

On Wednesday, Ozawa launched a new political party named Kokumin no Seikatsu ga Daiichi (People's Life First) to challenge the Noda government over its push to double the country's 5 percent sales tax rate by late 2015.

According to the results of the poll, 57.9 percent oppose enacting the tax legislation at this time, while 36.7 percent support it.

The House of Councilors is holding deliberations on the bills, which cleared the House of Representatives last month.

Asked which party they would support in the proportional representation portion of the next general election, 19.2 percent said the opposition-leading Liberal Democratic Party and 14.1 percent said Noda's ruling DPJ.

Another 13.2 percent said they would support the fledgling group Osaka Ishin no Kai (One Osaka) led by Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto, while 5.6 percent opted for the new Ozawa party.

As for the reactor in Fukui Prefecture that became the first to resume power generation since the Fukushima disaster, 51.9 percent said they oppose reactor restarts and 40.7 percent said they support them.

Asked what the kind of government they wanted to emerge from the next general election, 38.8 percent said they prefer a new framework based on a realignment of the major parties, the highest figure since Noda took office. Another 19.8 percent said they prefer a DPJ-LDP grand coalition, while 16.3 percent want to revert back to the old LDP-led government and 7.9 percent want a DPJ-led government.

[jaichind]

So Kizuna has apparently allied with Ozawa Ichiro Appreciation Life. Quite frankly, I'm hugely disappointed. They're hitching their wagon to a moron.

Well, Kizuna broke from DPJ over the consumption tax issue, the same reason Ozawa broke with DPJ.

[jaichind]

One thing that will stop Hashimoto, Ishihara and Ozawa from coming togeather is differences in domestic policy but mainly significant differences in foreign policy.  All are for a more independent Japanese foreign policy.  Ishihara is anti-Mainland China, anti-Korea, and anti-Russia.    Hashimoto talks a lot about assertive nationalism but Hashimoto appears less anti-Mainland China or anti-Russia in tone, and more likely to advocate a pragmatic power
politics stance of improving ties with these two powers.  Ozawa is strongly pro-Mainland China and would find it hard to forge common cause with Ishihara on foreign policy.  In this context, it may be difficult for these new local political forces to create a credible foreign policy which they can take to influence the national level.
   

[jaichind]

See

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fVfxZ8ojC3Q&feature=my_liked_videos&list=LLBZqnIPPjMvxL1cq6anDjYw

I think what Taro Kono says makes a lot of sense.  It matches a lot of what Your Party asserts and frankly a lot of what USA Republicans/Libertarians stands for.

[jaichind]

News below came out a couple of days ago.  If the election were held now I would say
that LDP would get around 200 seats, DPJ 100 seats, and the rest spread out across all
kind of parties like Your Party, Sunrise, New Komeito, SDP, JCP, Ozawa's new outfit, various
postal reform rebel parties from 2005, and of course Hashimoto's outfit.  I dare say that if
Hash**tmoto does well and is able to get a pre-election coalition togeather of various non-LDP
non-DPJ parties, it could really hurt DPJ ine the FPTP seats and hand LDP-Komeito a majority
where as where things stands now I feel LDP-Komeito will not get a majority.  Either way I
cannot see a situtation where DPJ does well.  Noda I feel might have done the right thing
from a fiscal point of view but is really bad politically for him and his party.


   Tokyo (DPA) -- Japan's unpopular Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda
has reportedly suggested to the main opposition party that he is
planning to put back the next election to November, but public
patience is wearing thin, analysts said.
   "Noda is trying to postpone an election date, but public
discontent has come to a head and Japanese people are urging him
to hold an election now," Minoru Morita, a political analyst,
said.
   According to polls, Noda's ruling Democratic Party of Japan
(DPJ) would take a drubbing in the next election. A series of
recent territorial disputes with neighbouring countries has
angered many Japanese and made Noda look weak.
   The beleaguered premier also infuriated the growing number of
anti-nuclear voters by approving the restart of two reactors on
the Sea of Japan coast, the first reactivation after last year's
nuclear disaster, despite fierce public opposition and experts'
warning of fault lines under the complex.
   The public also showed signs of feeling betrayed after the DPJ
decided to double sales tax to 10 per cent by 2015, despite an
election campaign pledge not to.
   The campaign earned the DPJ a landslide victory in 2009,
ending more than a half-century of almost uninterrupted rule by
the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).
   The tax-hike legislation is particularly unpopular as many
Japanese do not feel the economy is recovering. More than 50
lawmakers also left the DPJ in protest against the increase.
   On August 8, Noda and the two main opposition parties - the
LDP and the New Komeito - struck a deal to pass the tax-hike
legislation in exchange for a promise to dissolve the lower house
for an election "sometime soon," the premier told reporters at
the time.
   But he told LDP leader Sadakazu Tanigaki the same day that the
election would be on November 4 or 11, Kyodo News agency reported
Thursday, citing an unnamed LDP lawmaker.
   The LDP rejected those dates, and urged Noda to dissolve the
lower house within the current parliamentary session, which ends
September 8, the source told Kyodo.
   The LDP and the New Komeito, which control the upper house,
are threatening to issue a censure motion against Noda, for
passing legislation without the required participation of all
lawmakers. Such a motion would put considerable pressure on the
premier to step down.
   But analysts said the opposition may have overestimated its
gains from the government's unpopularity, as many Japanese have
been disenchanted with all existing parties over the current
economic situation and nuclear power policy.
   Many lawmakers and the mainstream media failed to grasp this
aspect of public sentiment, Morita said. "They have been out of
touch with the public as they are obsessed with politics in
Tokyo," Morita said.
   Whenever the election ends up being held, it is, therefore,
likely that no party may gain an effective majority.
   So more political confusion is expected under a fragile
coalition government, while the nation continues to struggle with
a flagging economy and deteriorating relations with China and
South Korea. dpa tk cds Author: Takehiko Kambayashi

[jaichind]

I took the test too. I cannot claim to know too much about some of the issues raised.  But as expected Your Party was my top party. 

[jaichind]

I agree that the LDP is not that popular but they do not need to be.  LDP has a deep bench whereas DJP does not in terms of a farm league of politicans that can win the personal vote without the party label.   I agree in the PR segment LDP will be the largest party but will not do that well,  It is in the FPTP section that LDP will romp home.  The anti-LDP vote will be splintered due to the disappointment in DPJ and LDP candidates will get enough LDP + personal vote to win a lot of seats where if if "against all" was an option like Russia, "against all" would win. 

I don't see why everyone thinks Hashimoto is going to have "an outfit". I simply cannot see him building a national party, or even a regional party (in Kansai) in a matter of weeks. Plus, third parties never break in during general elections. If he's smart, he's going to wait until the next upper house election and pull what YP did.

Also, I don't think the LDP is going to do that well. The problem with the LDP is that very few people actually like it. I could see them with a plurality of 160-170 or so, but 200 is a little difficult.

The member of the district I once lived in was Seiji Maehara, who I still very much like.

[jaichind]

Thanks for your insights.  Say that LDP gets 160-170 and New Komeito gets is usual 25-30 (22-23 PR plus a few FPTP seats), where does that leave government formation as LDP-New Komeito will have about almost 200 seats.  Under this situation DPJ will most likely have about 140 seats.  I just do not see any viable government unless it is a LDP-DPJ grand coalition.  Even if LDP-Komeito or DPJ manage to cobble up a coalition government it almost will not have a majority in the upper house unless it is a massive coalition which most likley will collpase under its own weight soon anyway.  But without a majority in the Upper house it will just be a re-run of the twisted diet of 2007 to 2009 and 2010 to now where nothing gets done.  This whole comsumption tax business of Noda seems to me a desperate attempt to get anything done but pushing for something that was actually in the LDP manifesto.  So if so are we not looking at a LDP-DPJ government? 

The LDP has largely lost their electoral edge in the rural "farm leagues". Nokyo stopped endorsing LDP candidates by default in 2003 and I'm pretty sure the urban-rural gap vanished by 2005.

Keep in mind, the DPJ, especially on the FPTP level, are still largely staffed by long-term politicians from other parties. Most of them have been around since at least the eight-party period of the 90's and some of them are long-serving LDP/JSP members.

A lot of the institutional support for LDP candidates (ie, counting on corporate cash, doctors, farmers, postal workers), this was all vanishing even before 2009. And it hasn't come back. Some members in the LDP have yet to understand that they are simply no longer the default party of government. I do think they are poised to do well, but not 200-seats well.

Also, I'd like Your Party a lot more if it weren't for their decidely anti-bureaucrat rhetoric, which although very popular among the public, turns me off a lot.

[jaichind]

Hmmm... you might have to educate me here.  I thought that Watanabe formed Your Party in 2009 before the 2009 elections and actually ran candidates in the 2009 elections.  Granted Your Party did much better in 2010 elections but I have to assume that Your Party built on its efforts in 2009 which led to its good results in 2010.  Also what is different between 2009 and 2010 is that in 2009 DPJ captured most of the anti-LDP vote and that vote got split over many parties in 2010 as disappointment in DPJ set in.  It seems a 2012 election will be more like 2010 than 2009 where there will be a lot of anti-LDP/anti-DPJ votes up for grabs.  I  agree it would be hard for Hashimoto to put something togeather that quickly which means it might not be able to realize the opportunity it has been given but I would think the opportunity is there in 2012.

I don't see why everyone thinks Hashimoto is going to have "an outfit". I simply cannot see him building a national party, or even a regional party (in Kansai) in a matter of weeks. Plus, third parties never break in during general elections. If he's smart, he's going to wait until the next upper house election and pull what YP did.

[jaichind]

Osaka mayor to establish new political party


OSAKA, Aug. 28 Kyodo 
 (EDS: ADDING NEW INFO IN 4TH AND 5TH GRAPHS)
     Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto plans to establish a new national 
political party as early as mid-September ahead of the approaching 
general election for the House of Representatives, political sources
said Tuesday.
     The Osaka-based local political group Osaka Ishin no Kai (Osaka
Restoration Association) that Hashimoto, a reform-minded 
lawyer-turned-politician, founded in April 2010 will call on more 
than five current Diet members to join the new party, the sources 
said.
     Under the law, a political party needs to have at least five 
Diet members under its wing or to have gained more than 2 percent of
votes cast in the latest national election.
     An official of the group said that five lawmakers are set to 
leave their parties and join Hashimoto's group as early as 
Your Party.
     Hashimoto, leader of Osaka Ishin no Kai, told reporters Tuesday 
his group has yet to decide on the establishment of the new political 
party.
     Hashimoto apparently does not want to link up with any existing 
political parties but to unite with individual lawmakers to try to 
distinguish the new party from conventional ones, the sources said.
     Osaka Ishin no Kai plans to unveil a set of election promises 
later this week. It also plans to invite incumbent lawmakers to an 
open forum in Osaka on Sept. 9 and look at their opinions on its 
Shinji Oguma, a House of Councillors member from Your Party, were 
among the members who met with him.
     On Wednesday, Osaka Gov. Ichiro Matsui, who serves as secretary 
general of Osaka Ishin no Kai, said the group would not call on 
current political parties to join the Sept. 9 open forum but would 
like to discuss issues with individual lawmakers.
     Hashimoto, 43, who was once a TV personality, won the Osaka 
gubernatorial election in January 2008, and then resigned in November 
2011 to run in the Osaka mayoral election.
     Hashimoto, who proposed the administrative abolition of the two 
large cities of Osaka and Sakai to create a metropolis similar to 
Tokyo in a bid to avoid overlapping administrative structures, beat 
incumbent Osaka Mayor Kunio Hiramatsu in the November 2011 election.
     Osaka Ishin no Kai was established in April last year and 
includes more than 100 mayors and prefectural and municipal assembly 
members in its ranks.
     In June this year, Osaka Ishin no Kai launched a political 
school, called Ishin Seijijuku, which is intended to train 
politicians who can take the lead in reforming Japan's governance.
election promises.
     The group also plans to publicly solicit candidates for the next 
general election and field candidates in the election on a nationwide 
scale.
     On Sept. 8, Osaka Ishin no Kai is scheduled to hold a meeting of 
prefectural and municipal assembly members who are members of the 
group and confirm these targets. Hashimoto may declare the 
establishment of the new party at the group's fundraising function on 
Sept. 12, the sources said.
     In mid-August, Hashimoto met with members of a bipartisan group 
on local administration reforms in Osaka. Matsuno, Matsunami and 
mid-September.
     Among the five are Yorihisa Matsuno, a fourth-term lower house
member of the governing Democratic Party of Japan, and Kenta 
Matsunami, a third-term lower house member of the main opposition 
Liberal Democratic Party, as well as two members from the opposition

[jaichind]

Japan Political Turmoil Forces Government to Plan Spending Delay

     Aug. 31 (Bloomberg) --  Japanese Finance Minister Jun Azumi
said the government may delay payment of 4 trillion yen ($51
billion) in tax revenue to local governments if a bill needed to
finance spending isn’t passed soon.
     “Funds for the general account may dry up if the bill
isn’t passed during the parliamentary session” ending on Sept.
8, Azumi said at a press conference in Tokyo today. “We need to
consider postponing as much spending as possible to delay the
timing of budget depletion.”
     Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda’s effort to pass legislation
to issue 38.3 trillion yen of deficit-financing bonds stalled
after the opposition-dominated upper house passed a censure
motion against him this week, halting parliamentary business.
Azumi said that the government will continue to pay interest on
already issued bonds as planned.
     As well as delaying tax transfers scheduled for early
September to municipalities and prefectures, the government is
also considering temporarily cutting spending on travel,
building upkeep and other internal costs by more than half,
according to documents released by the Finance Ministry today.
     The government could hit the spending ceiling as soon as
October without the passage of bill, the documents showed. The
revenues from the deficit financing bonds account for 42 percent
of this year’s budget.

[jaichind]

I really hope Taro Kono runs again.  I feel what he advocates really
make a lot of sense.

Japan Opposition LDP to Hold Leadership Contest Sept. 26

     Aug. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s main opposition Liberal
Democratic Party will hold its leadership contest on Sept. 26,
the party said in a statement.
     LDP President Sadakazu Tanigaki is expected to run for re-
election, the Yomiuri newspaper said today, without citing
anyone. Former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba and ex-premier
Shinzo Abe will also probably run, according to separate Yomiuri
reports.
     The ruling Democratic Party of Japan will meet Sept. 21 to
decide whether to retain Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda as its
leader.

[jaichind]

While I agree with you that given the way lower house elections work versus how upper house elections works (FPTP vs some multi membered seats) does make it easier for YP to do well for upper house elections.  In the case of 2009 vs 2010 performance of YP I feel a much greater factor is just raw number of votes.  In 2009 lower house elections YP got .87% of the district vote and 4.27% of the PR vote, which translated into 2 FPTP seats and 3 PR seats out of the total 480 seats available.  In 2010 upper house elections YP got 10.24% of the district vote and 13.59% of the PR vote, which translated into 3 district seats and 7 PR seats out of 121 seats available.  YP ran a lot less candidates in 2009 FPTP than in 2010.  That is most likely because what you pointed out that in 2010 these candidates are more likely to win due to the systems.  But another and I feel bigger factor just has to be that YP was much more popular in 2010 versus 2009 as seen in the jump in the PR vote share from 2009 to 2010.   

YP did exceptionally well in 2010 because of how Upper House elections work. They had enough support in the Kanto plains to take a seat in several of the multi-member districts, but not enough to outright win pluralities. In short, YP would have won very few FPTP districts, but could come second or third in prefectures that they were strong in. People knew that and knew that if they lived in the Kanto plains, voting for a YP candidate would not be a waste.

I mean, Hashimoto very well could run people in 2012. And he's filed enough paperwork so that he could if he wanted to. At the same time, his performance would probably be underwhelming if he did.

On the other hand, waiting until 2013 to run for the Upper House is also a tricky position considering Hashimoto wants to abolish the upper house.

[jaichind]

His idea of having one giant PR bloc is interesting but does have
the net affect of messing up the Costa Rica arrangements lots of
parties like LDP and DPJ where people alternate between PR list
of a bloc and a district of said bloc.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Hashimoto group to propose halving No. of lower house seats+

     Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto said Thursday that his political 
group is planning to propose cutting the number of seats in the House 
of Representatives to 240 from the present 480, as part of its policy 
pledges for an upcoming general election.
     The regional political group will try to cut the number of seats 
for the lower house's single-seat constituencies to 150 from the 
present 300, the popular mayor said at a news conference.
     Hashimoto, leader of Osaka Ishin no Kai (Osaka restoration 
association), said that one seat is enough for each of Japan's 47 
prefectures but that he will propose expanding the area of each 
constituency to one with a population of about 1 million.
     On the proportional representation system, Hashimoto said his 
group will aim to abolish the current 11 regional blocs and instead 
establish one for the whole country, with cutting the number of seats 
to 90 from the current 180.
     Currently, the number of seats in a general election for the 
lower house stands at 480 -- 300 seats for single-seat constituencies 
and 180 seats for proportional representation in 11 blocs.
     Osaka Ishin no Kai plans to incorporate those proposals in a set 
of election promises under the title Ishin Hassaku (eight policy 
programs for restoring the country).
     Osaka Ishin no Kai, which is currently composed of local 
politicians such as mayors and assembly members, plans to establish a
new national political party as early as mid-September with the next 
general election approaching.
     Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda promised earlier this month in 
talks with opposition leaders dissolving the lower house "sometime 
soon" in exchange for their help in passing tax hike legislation.
     Hashimoto, speaking at the news conference, also criticized 
incumbent lawmakers for attending funeral services or joining "bon" 
dance festivals in their constituencies.
     He said Diet members need to keep some distance from voters, 
noting that their duties are to decide on the course of the country.
     Hashimoto proposed the administrative abolition of the two large
cities of Osaka and Sakai to create a metropolis similar to Tokyo in 
a bid to avoid overlapping administrative structures.
     The Osaka mayor said he himself would not run in the next 
general election, noting that his mission is to realize the Osaka 
metropolis.
     Hashimoto established Osaka Ishin no Kai in April last year. 
Osaka Gov. Ichiro Matsui serves as its secretary general and more 
than 100 prefectural and municipal assembly members in Osaka 
Prefecture are part of the group.
     Hashimoto, 43, a lawyer who was once a TV personality, won the 
Osaka gubernatorial election in January 2008, and then resigned in 
November 2011 to run in the Osaka mayoral election.