Current polling, Obama vs. Romney

[krazen1211]

Virginia is miscolored based on the latest Gravis poll. This map has used Gravis polls before.

[LiberalJunkie]

Virginia is miscolored based on the latest Gravis poll. This map has used Gravis polls before.

That poll is junk.

[pbrower2a]

Nobody is going to question a Quinnipiac poll that has President Obama up by well over 10% in New York State, right?  We Ask America has a poll with Obama up 17% in Illinois, and I am not going to dispute that. I don't distinguish leads over 10%.

Rasmussen has Obama down by 3% in Missouri. This is post-Convention, and after a powerful speech by Bill Clinton -- who might have some influence over voters who warmed up to him in 1992 and 1996 and did not warm up to Barack Obama in 2008. Missouri is now a legitimate swing state.

It's beginning to look like November 2008.

Likely voters -- the Obama floor.  Such voters tend to be old and R-leaning.

[pbrower2a]

Polls in Florida and Ohio -- Rasmussen and ARG, razor-thin leads for President Obama.
WMUR, New Hampshire -- President Obama up 5.
PPP, Minnesota -- President Obama up 7.
SUSA, California -- Obama up by a huge margin.
 
An entity known as Associated Industries of Florida or something to the effect showed a significant lead by Romney -- junk pollster, and everyone knows how his employer wants hm to vote. Gravis, Virginia -- pollster that says nothing about itself. Not used.

[pbrower2a]

Marist, WSJ.

In both Florida and Virginia, Obama is ahead of Romney by five points among likely voters (including those leaning toward a particular candidate), 49 percent to 44 percent.

In Ohio, the president’s lead is seven points, 50 percent to 43 percent.

That's with "likely voters", the floor for President Obama.

It's huge for registered voters.

(averaged with some Rasmussen polls for Florida and Ohio -- it's still past the margin of error).

KDVR-TV (Denver's FoX station): Obama up 49-44.

Romney's chances seem to be falling before the autumn leaves get a chance to do so.  

[5280]

Don't forget the ARG poll of Obama +2 on Romney in CO.  If you don't include that, then your polls are moot.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/CO12.html

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Don't forget the ARG poll of Obama +2 on Romney in CO.  If you don't include that, then your polls are moot.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/CO12.html

ARG is, and has always been, a bad pollster.

[Mehmentum]

Fun fact: even if Romney won all of the 'pink' states on your map, he would still loose.

[pbrower2a]

University (Fairleigh-Dickinson, NJ) -- Obama up 14.

Rasmussen, NC -- Romney up 2.

[pbrower2a]

Philadelphia  Inquirer --

PA, Obama up 11. NJ, Obama up 14.

SUSA, Kentucky -- Romney up 14. 

It looks as if Mitt Romney will get an early lead in the Electoral College as Kentucky and Vermont will be the first two states called. 8-3 Romney.

[pbrower2a]

Rasmussen, Colorado -- Romney up 2 (even if the President has an approval of 48%)
SUSA, Oregon -- Obama up 9.  
Suffolk, Massachusetts -- Obama up 33%
Washington Post, Virginia -- Obama up 8.
Southern Illinois U, Illinois -- Obama up huge.
ARG, New Hampshire -- Obama up 2.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

I think the CO is junk lol.

[LiberalJunkie]

I think the CO is junk lol.

[pbrower2a]

I think the CO is junk lol.

So do I -- but rules are rules.

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac, NYT -- Obama up 6 in Wisconsin. Fringe of competitiveness.


It is Obama up 17 if people are asked 'Which candidate cares about your needs and problems?' This is before the '47% of all people don't pay enough taxes like you noble tycoons and executives' gaffe leaked out.

[pbrower2a]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/presidential-swing-states-%28co-va-and-wi%29/release-detail?ReleaseID=1799

For Romney to win those three states, he must either get people to forget that he doesn't care about their economic distress or get them to believe that if they sacrifice on behalf of the Master Class they will get enough benefits to justify the sacrifices. That will be a difficult sell.

Mitt Romney couldn't convince the French to accept a religion that requires them to reject wine.

[krazen1211]

How does Rasmussen's Colorado poll and Quinnipiac's Colorado poll average to pink?

[LiberalJunkie]

How does Rasmussen's Colorado poll and Quinnipiac's Colorado poll average to pink?

He takes the most recent or atleast credible poll.

[5280]

How does Rasmussen's Colorado poll and Quinnipiac's Colorado poll average to pink?

He takes the most recent or atleast credible poll.

It should average to white, not pink.  That's not credibility, that's bullsh*t.

[Person Man]

There's still no way that Romney is leading in Colorado. Out of dozens of polls he leads what? 2 or 3?

[pbrower2a]

Marquette University Law School, which got the Walker recall right in Wisconsin, now shows the President up 14 in Wisconsin. Averaging this with Q I get an average of 10. Deep red. Could Wisconsin be spiraling away from a possible R flip?

Maine, PPP --- Obama up 17.

[krazen1211]

How does Rasmussen's Colorado poll and Quinnipiac's Colorado poll average to pink?

He takes the most recent or atleast credible poll.

Pbrower has at least a dozen times in this thread averaged recent polls, just as he just averaged the recent Wisconsin polls.

+2 Romney and +1 Obama average to +.5 Romney. You can then round that either way, but certainly not to pink.

[pbrower2a]

CNN -- Michigan, Obama up 8. CO averaged (under 1% -- white. The edge goes to Romney, but not enough).

[7,052,770]

Krazen realizes that his guy is going to lose the real election, so he's clinging to any last thing he can find, like pointing out minor unintentional errors on a map that changes daily and will have no impact whatsoever on the election.

[pbrower2a]

From the pollster that FoX News Channel goes to (Opinion Research?) when it wants accuracy:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/09/19/obama-has-edge-over-romney-in-three-battleground-states/#ixzz26yXrTMwN

No change in the map shades -- but apparently a disaster in the making.

Mitt Romney will not be President of the United States, barring some miracle on his behalf.