Current polling, Obama vs. Romney

[old timey villain]

Romney aint gonna win based on the sheer demographic mountain he has to climb. We are entering an era of Democratic presidential dominance based solely on the growing number of minority voters. Why do you think Democrats have dominated in most presidential elections since 1992? States that used to be easy GOP pickups are becoming increasingly out of reach because of rising minority populations.

Romney can try to make inroads with these voters, but he's certainly not going to win hispanics, for instance, after his party based their entire election strategy in 2010 on bashing and scapegoating them. And don't try to tell me that there is a difference between legal and illegal hispanics. Even most of the legal hispanics found the attacks on illegal immigration disgusting.

Things will change of course. After these minorities become more assimilated they will begin to split more between the parties, but it's not happening for a while. I wish Romney luck trying to win Florida, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and even Arizona. But I think he's going to hit a wall with these voters that he can't break through.

[old timey villain]

Romney aint gonna win based on the sheer demographic mountain he has to climb. We are entering an era of Democratic presidential dominance based solely on the growing number of minority voters. Why do you think Democrats have dominated in most presidential elections since 1992? States that used to be easy GOP pickups are becoming increasingly out of reach because of rising minority populations.

Romney can try to make inroads with these voters, but he's certainly not going to win hispanics, for instance, after his party based their entire election strategy in 2010 on bashing and scapegoating them. And don't try to tell me that there is a difference between legal and illegal hispanics. Even most of the legal hispanics found the attacks on illegal immigration disgusting.

Things will change of course. After these minorities become more assimilated they will begin to split more between the parties, but it's not happening for a while. I wish Romney luck trying to win Florida, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and even Arizona. But I think he's going to hit a wall with these voters that he can't break through.

Haha.. So the Democrats win the most recent election, and now you're ready to say GOP won't win again until minorities "assimilate?" That's a pretty big leap, and you seem simply to be relying on minority growth trends to predict the outcome of elections. Did you predict that the Republicans would win the most House seats since 1948 in 2010? You shouldn't have, because those same "minority growth trends" you speak of were in place then. Elections don't take place in vacuums. Yes, minorities (some more than others), lean Democrat. But like Hopper indicated, lots of external factors can effect their vote. Your argument that "we're entering an era of Democratic Presidential dominance seems more like wishful thinking than actual fact when you look at minority turn out and vote in elections as recent as 2010 and 2004.

Yeah, and Republicans would have control or at least a tie in the senate if they hadn't lost the races in Nevada, Colorado, California and even Washington. Hispanics kept the democratic incumbents in power in those states. You had a chance to win them over but you decided to use the anti immigration rhetoric and it blew up in your face, especially in Nevada.

I also said that Dems now have an advantage in PRESIDENTIAL elections. Midterm voters still sway older and whiter.

Facts: Dems have won the popular vote in 4 out of the past 5 presidential elections. From 1992 onwards, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico have gone from safe R to tossup or lean dem largely because of hispanic voters. California has gone from safe R to safe D largely because of hispanic voters. Even Arizona cannot be taken for granted by the Republicans now because of hispanic voters.

[old timey villain]

Facts: Dems have won the popular vote in 4 out of the past 5 presidential elections. From 1992 onwards, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico have gone from safe R to tossup or lean dem largely because of hispanic voters. California has gone from safe R to safe D largely because of hispanic voters. Even Arizona cannot be taken for granted by the Republicans now because of hispanic voters.

1) Bush beat Gore in 2000, so your "popular vote" caveat is misleading
2) Clinton lost a majority of votes in 1992, also misleading
So, your pet number turns into 2 of 5.
3) Republicans won the 3 previous elections from your starting point of 92
So, your pet number turns into 2 of 8.    

1) The election was basically decided by an activist Supreme Court and a political infrastructure in Florida that was in the bag for Bush, so I could care less than Bush technically won that year. Gore still received more votes.
2) Clinton got 43%, but Bush only got 37%. Don't pretend that the Perot effect didn't exist. It pulled down the vote share for both parties, but Clinton still came out on top in both elections.
3) 1992 was a realignment that shifted the country away from the Reagan/Bush years. I consider it a new political era, as do many political experts, so that's why I'm going from there. My whole spiel was about political "eras". Get it?

If this still isn't enough for you, then we can look at electoral vote averages since 1992.

Democratic candidate: 326 electoral votes
Republican Candidate: 211 electoral votes

This contrasts sharply from 1968 to 1988, which is why I consider 1992 the start of a new era.

[old timey villain]

I think Obama's "choom gang" widespread marijuana use in hawaii may hurt him in the polls. 

At the very least, it will help Romney solidify his support amongst christian families and even catholic families.  In many ways, Romney is more mainstream/main street than Obama.  Soccer moms would be hesitant to vote for bigtime pot heads and cocaine user. 

On the other hand, legalization advocates, like college students, will get a boost knowing that Obama personally favors legalization, even though he may not be able to politically enforce legalization. 

The dirty little secret is that a lot of those soccer moms were 420 friendly when they were young too. Obama grew up, ditched the pot and so did they. Some people may feign moral outrage with this news, but it's not a game changer at all, in fact it humanizes Obama to the swing voters he's trying to win.

And in all honesty, who is more out there to the average American? A guy who did drugs when he was younger, or a guy who pushed the limits of teenage rebellion by taking a puff of a cigarette, taking a sip of alcohol, and then never touching either again?