Current polling, Obama vs. Romney

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

It looks like Romney can actually win this thing. 

nail down 1) NC, 2)FL, 3)VA, 4)OH... it's like clockwork. 

You're forgetting that Obama will still have 272 EVs. Even with all four of those, Romney will still need one of CO/NM/NV/IA/NH, which are all looking solid Obama at this point.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

There was a FL poll that had Obama up 1.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Despite Romney's shortcomings this week, the race is still his to lose. He is up by 5 pts in today's poll.

He's also down 8 points in Ohio, which for him is a must-win.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Despite Romney's shortcomings this week, the race is still his to lose. He is up by 5 pts in today's poll.

He's also down 8 points in Ohio, which for him is a must-win.

Yes in July. Let's wait until November to analyze actual votes rather than polls that are taken in the dog days of summer. How many Democrats were polled in that poll. Now that's something to analyze... 60% maybe?

Then let's wait on that R+5 national poll. You can't dismiss polls favorable to the opposition because it's summer and then say "Look at this one!".

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

As usual --

White... tied.

Results of 2008 are shown here with results 'yellowed'.

under 4%  light
4.01- 9.99% medium
10% dark

I am using 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll. I am using only the 60% shading for orange because 70% orange is an ugly color.

These are the 2008 results. Current polls will be shown in blue (Republican) or red (Democratic) in subsequent posts.  As you can see, orange does not show up for the two districts of Maine that President Obama won by whopping margins or NE-01 which he barely won. NE-03 and NE-03, which John McCain won handily, show up deep green.  

(I reduced the green shades and got the Dakotas right below).


PPP had polls for Iowa and Ohio today, and neither shows cause for the comfort of Mitt Romney.  In Iowa, the President is up 10%; in Ohio he is up 7% Orange goes red in these two cases. For a state on the other side of this divide, consider a recent PPP poll for Montana in which Mitt Romney has a lead.

Yeah, but PPP polls have been producing huge outliers for Democrats.  The notion that Obama leads by 10 points in Iowa and 7 in Ohio is ludicrous.

...Not really. Also, that was from May. This is August.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Romney's up in VA and OH.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I recommend making MO yellow for a while.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I recommend making MO yellow for a while.

Why?  It's fairly clear by now that Akin's gaffe is not having much of an effect beyond his own race.  If this were a Senate polling thread, I could maybe see it, but not for this thread.

The polling's been varying wildly on the presidential leve.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I recommend making MO yellow for a while.

Why?  It's fairly clear by now that Akin's gaffe is not having much of an effect beyond his own race.  If this were a Senate polling thread, I could maybe see it, but not for this thread.

The polling's been varying wildly on the presidential leve.

I think the Mason-Dixon Poll having Romney up 7 was correct, and it corroborates PPP's Monday poll having Romney up 10. Missouri is Blue.

However, there are also several polls showing the race as a toss-up.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

You know, I think we can start accepting MO polls now. The Akin controversy seems to have died down for now.