Bibi forms broadest coalition ever to govern Israel, cancels elections

[danny]

This isn't actually the broadest as the Shamir-Peres coalition had 97 MK's.

Also Mofaz can teach Romney how to flip-flop. The media is having a field day with videos of Mofaz for months saying terrible things about Bibi and what a failure. Also promising very clearly that there is no chance that he will join the coalition and that he is the only one who can stand up to and replace Bibi. Worst of all is that the day before the deal was announced he blamed Shelly that she is pretending to be an opposition while secretly making a deal with Bibi while secretly doing exactly that very thing himself.

[danny]

This isn't actually the broadest as the Shamir-Peres coalition had 97 MK's.

Also Mofaz has a thing or two to teach Romney about flip-flopping. The media is having a field day with videos of Mofaz for months saying terrible things about Bibi and what a failure. Also promising very clearly that there is no chance that he will join the coalition and that he is the only one who can stand up to and replace Bibi. Worst of all is that the day before the deal was announced he blamed Shelly that she is pretending to be an opposition while secretly making a deal with Bibi while secretly doing exactly that very thing himself.

[danny]

Well, we'd have to wait and see if a few of the Kadima people defect. A certain Ms Tzipi isn't sounding very happy, does she?

Livni resigned and is not relevant at the moment. As for the other members of Kadima, they approved this deal unanimously, And with good (personal) reason: most of them were about to lose their jobs which were now saved because of this deal.

[danny]

Well, we'd have to wait and see if a few of the Kadima people defect. A certain Ms Tzipi isn't sounding very happy, does she?

Livni resigned and is not relevant at the moment. As for the other members of Kadima, they approved this deal unanimously, And with good (personal) reason: most of them were about to lose their jobs which were now saved because of this deal.

Well, good for them. They should start merger negotiations as soon as possible - otherwise they are running the risk of missing the next Knesset even more decisively. And, given their recent decisions, it's clear they are valuing being in that House a lot )

I'm not sure the decision to enter the coalition will necessarily harm them in the next election. It's clear that a significant portion of centrists wanted Kadima to enter the coalition and are happy with the decision. The first poll after the decision doesn't show any movement away from Kadima. IMO the worst looking thing for Kadima is the flip-flopping, but I doubt many people will remember and/or care much about that in 18 months.

[danny]

It's not that the people should/would be unhappy about them joining the coalition. It's that it's not clear, what's the difference between them and Likud. If you don't like the government: well, vote for the opposition. If you like the government: vote for the government - that is, Likud. What's their niche?

People who, for various reasons would not agree to vote for Likud (because they dislike Bibi, because they think Likud is too right wing for them, because they associate Likud with a type of people they wouldn't want to be associated with), but who either think a unity is government the responsible thing to do or don't like the idea of early elections.

Netaniyahu is, by far, a better politician than Mofaz. This is still going to be the Netaniyahu government, on which Kadima will struggle to make any imprint. What are the positions they are getting, besides the minister w/ out portfolio?

Agreed about Bibi being a better politician. They will be getting some committee chairmanships and there is media speculation that they will be getting some ministries soon. Obviously they would be getting much more if they entered the coalition after the election from a position of power.

[danny]

So, is Shinui 2.0 or whatever Lapid's party is called going to eat most of Kadima?  I thought they have roughly the same voter demos.

Basically yes together with Labour, they might still keep their votes but the centrist vote is especially fickle so Centrist parties are prone to quickly rising and crashing down again and unless Mofaz can make his party appealing somehow to these voters they will disappear. And from what I have seen of Mofaz so far I wouldn't trust him to be able to do that.

[danny]

People who, for various reasons would not agree to vote for Likud (because they dislike Bibi, because they think Likud is too right wing for them, because they associate Likud with a type of people they wouldn't want to be associated with), but who either think a unity is government the responsible thing to do or don't like the idea of early elections.

Disliking Netaniyahu and liking Mofaz.... Hm., that's a particularly perverted taste. Are there many of those? (I AM being disingenious here, but only somewhat). After a year in this coalition, Kadima will be associated exactly with the same sort of people, anyway.

Not necessarily liking Mofaz, plenty of Israelis don't like any politician, But if they apathetic or dislike Mofaz less than Bibi that could be enough.

And being associated with a certain segment in the population is a party specific thing and not to the coalition as a whole. All the parties to the right of Meretz have served with almost every other parties and it hasn't stopped stopped parties from retaining distinct voting groups anyway.

[danny]

Nothing I say in this thread means I think Kadima will do well in the next election. But that is because I think very lowly of Mofaz's political skills and mass appeal, and I think a better politician could have entered the coalition and come out looking better than Mofaz can.

[danny]

Coming into coalition w/ Netaniyahu "from the left" is suicidal. Barak's not a complete nincompoop: he, actually, managed to get to be a PM, didn't he? And look what's this done to him.

Barak's problem is that while he can get into positions of power, he tends become hated after that. His big loss of popularity happened not when he entered Likuds coalition, but during his tenure as PM.

Being associated w/ the "wrong sort" ...  Kadima is, essentially, a Likud splinter, graced w/ a few ex-Laborites for a show.  Are they REALLY associated w/ different people?

That may be so but in 2009 Likud and Kadima had very different electorates nonetheless. The former looked like the classic Likud electorate, being stronger in poorer cities especially in the periphery, and rural Mizrachi areas. Whereas Kadima was clearly a more left wing electorate being stronger in wealthy cities in the centre and the Askenazi rural areas.

[danny]

Haaretz is reporting that 5 Kadima MKs are all but ready to bolt - at least, if they get two more to go w/ them (you need 7 MKs not to be bound by the anti-defection law).  Interestingly, all five are somewhat "strange" ethnically, three of them ex-Soviet, but only one Ashkenazic: Russian (Orit Zuaretz), a Georgian (Nino Abesadze), a Mountain (Tat) Jew (Robert Tiviaev) as well as an Ethiopian (Shlomo Molla) and a Druze (Majallie Whbee).

In other news, outside Knesset, both Tzipi Livny and Haim Ramon (one of the key co-founders of the party from the "left" and the chairman of its Council) have left Kadima and are planning to form a new party.

If they succeed in finding two more MK's it will be very ironic as the law that allows just 7 to defect (instead of a third) is called the "Mofaz law" because it was originally passed to allow Mofaz to leave Kadima and join the coalition.

Livni's decision to leave looks really silly in hindsight as she could have split and led the new party, but instead will now be out of the knesset until at least the next elections.

Orit Zuaretz came when she was 4 in 1971 rather than the post USSR collapse immigration wave, no one thinks of her as Russian. And while the ethnic makeup might be interesting they have in common them being Livni loyalists.

[danny]

Wait, Livni's back into things? Didn't she say she was permanently out of politics like less then a week ago?

When she resigned from the Knesset she said she would remain in public life so it's clear we haven't seen the last of her.