Why Obama looks better in the electoral college

[pbrower2a]

It is simple. President Obama is winning by smaller margins in most of the states that he is winning than Romney leads in most states in which Romney leads. There just aren't that many states that are R+5 to R+10 in (AR, GA, MO, MT)  recent President elections but there are lots of them in the states in the D+5 to D+10 range (IA, MN, MI, NH, PA, WI). This time the President seems a good cultural match for most states in the R+0 to R+5 range (CO, FL, IN, NC, OH, VA)  even while he is a horrible match for states that Clinton won twice but Obama got clobbered in (AR, KY, LA, TN, WV). What he loses in the Mountain South (AR, KY, TN, and WV and southern MO) he more than gains elsewhere.

[pbrower2a]

Maybe it is not that different that 2004 when Bush, if he had narrowly lost Ohio, would have lost the EV, but had a >2.5 million PV lead.

True. Dubya was racking up huge vote totals all over the South while losing by small margins in a bunch of states. But shift the election 2% in favor of Dubya and he would have picked up Oregon, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire and 68 electoral votes creating a near-landslide.

...If Kerry had picked up enough votes with which to win Ohio he would have probably also picked up Iowa and New Mexico as well.

[pbrower2a]

My impression is that the Catholicism (ala mainline Protestantism, as a sort of mainline kind of outfit itself these days) is losing whites in the US in droves, and the increase in Hispanics net of those who convert to Protestantism substantially but not totally offsets that, resulting in a slow overall percentage decline.

I suspect that conversions to Catholicism just about match conversions from Catholicism.

Catholics tend to be much more liberal than Protestants in general -- much more liberal than white fundamentalists and evangelicals and much more liberal than Lutherans. If it is 'losing' white members, its members used to go from fitting a culture that well served the expansion of Catholicism (large families often with a son dedicated to the Priesthood and a daughter to the convent) to the much smaller family. The Catholic priesthood used to be an attractive career to an intellectual with few chances of getting a college education; that is over. The demands are too high and the rewards are too slight.

Catholics may still be 'practicing' in the sense of attending weekly mass, but most are very secular at all other times.  Priests may preach whatever the Pope tells them to preach, but parishioners are more pragmatic these days. If they have to have contraception to prevent abortion... then so be it. 

[pbrower2a]

Catholics may still be 'practicing' in the sense of attending weekly mass, but most are very secular at all other times.  Priests may preach whatever the Pope tells them to preach, but parishioners are more pragmatic these days. If they have to have contraception to prevent abortion... then so be it. 

This is also really important to keep in mind. Catholics, while we may have similar moral views as Evangelicals in many respects are less overtly political in announcing them, especially on the local level. The Catholic Church will mostly organize anti-abortion rallies, speak out against abortion, and that's about it. Maybe there will be a mention of some other issue once every four or five months if it comes up in the news in some way that affects the Church. I think I've heard a reference to gay marriage from the pulpit a grand total of once in 23 years of attending Catholic Churches. While the bishops may speak out on occasion to the press, most Catholics don't read the religious news all that closely and most aren't going to pay much attention anyway.

Catholics also are culturally distinct from Evangelicals in how we approach religion in the public sphere. We are generally not as eager to publically announce our religious beliefs at the drop of a hat in real life. I was raised in an atmosphere where we did not often discuss religion much. It was assumed that I would go to Mass every Sunday, and we always did, but it wasn't a question. It wasn't something we talked about, rather something we just did. One thing that becomes obvious in every seminar I've been a part of in education is that the Evangelical members tend to identify and declare themselves very quickly, while Catholics seem to divulge their beliefs only if directly asked. It's a cultural thing.

Add to that, the Catholic Church has made plenty of statements that have no connection to sexuality. The Catholic Church is more consistently 'pro-life' than evangelical Protestants, as shown on the death penalty, gun control,  nuclear proliferation, and poverty on which evangelicals can be clearly or at least implicitly 'pro-death'.