Why Obama looks better in the electoral college

[TJ in Oregon]

I think the accelerated collapse of the Roman Catholic Church is hurting the GOP with social issues, thus PA and OH are increasingly more Dem.

Oh my... this is interesting on so many levels.

PA and OH aren't increasingly Dem. If anything OH has become more Republican over the last ten years (right now it's more Dem than it would otherwise be because the state GOP decided to tick off the unions, not because of social issues). PA may have become increasingly Dem in your lifetime, but it hasn't really been a swing state in a long time. If you're expecting the rust belt Catholic areas to suddenly become Republican bastions, that's not about to happen. You have to understand the union/protectionist mentality of these towns to get it. The GOP can make inroads into the blue collar Catholic vote, but will never win it since the workers are mostly yearning for a byegone era of economics that isn't coming back and isn't about to be provided by the GOP in particular. You will see some Republican trend in places like the Youngstown metro area or Monroe, Michigan that fit this bill well, but it would take at least a generation for those areas to become solidly Republican if everything else in the nation remained the same.

The Catholic Church does have a whole lot of problems and certainly isn't on the rise right now, but also bear in mind its members started off very, very Democratic to begin with. Most of the social fragmentation within didn't happen recently; it happened during the 1960s "spirit of Vatican II" era and is just now becoming increasingly obvious. The Catholic Church is going to slowly shrink for a while still, especially in the Midwest, and slowly become more conservative as people either fall inline with the bishops or leave altogether. And to be entirely honest, most of the recent social issues polling out of the rust belt hasn't been all that bad for the GOP to begin with.

If the Catholic Church was in better condition across the rust belt, the GOP would definitely be in better shape, but it's a lot more complicated than that.

[TJ in Oregon]

The main reason why Obama has an advantage in the electoral college is that so many states that used to be safely Republican, like NC, VA, NV, and CO are now swing states while no Dem states have really become swingy.

[TJ in Oregon]

My impression is that the Catholicism (ala mainline Protestantism, as a sort of mainline kind of outfit itself these days) is losing whites in the US in droves, and the increase in Hispanics net of those who convert to Protestantism substantially but not totally offsets that, resulting in a slow overall percentage decline.

I suspect that conversions to Catholicism just about match conversions from Catholicism.

In the US, Catholicism is losing more people in conversions from than it is gaining in conversions to, which is being offset by immigration such that the overall percentage of the population in the US remains roughly stable (I think it did drop a fraction of a percentage point over the last 10 years). Losing whites "in droves" is probably something of an overstatement since roughly two-thirds of Americans raised Catholic remain so (I remember reading 68% somewhere though I'm not sure I can find the source easily; anyway it seems about the right number to me). But yes, the Catholic Church is shrinking in most of the northeast in particular and shrinking but less noticeably in the rust belt.

[TJ in Oregon]

Catholics may still be 'practicing' in the sense of attending weekly mass, but most are very secular at all other times.  Priests may preach whatever the Pope tells them to preach, but parishioners are more pragmatic these days. If they have to have contraception to prevent abortion... then so be it. 

This is also really important to keep in mind. Catholics, while we may have similar moral views as Evangelicals in many respects are less overtly political in announcing them, especially on the local level. The Catholic Church will mostly organize anti-abortion rallies, speak out against abortion, and that's about it. Maybe there will be a mention of some other issue once every four or five months if it comes up in the news in some way that affects the Church. I think I've heard a reference to gay marriage from the pulpit a grand total of once in 23 years of attending Catholic Churches. While the bishops may speak out on occasion to the press, most Catholics don't read the religious news all that closely and most aren't going to pay much attention anyway.

Catholics also are culturally distinct from Evangelicals in how we approach religion in the public sphere. We are generally not as eager to publically announce our religious beliefs at the drop of a hat in real life. I was raised in an atmosphere where we did not often discuss religion much. It was assumed that I would go to Mass every Sunday, and we always did, but it wasn't a question. It wasn't something we talked about, rather something we just did. One thing that becomes obvious in every seminar I've been a part of in education is that the Evangelical members tend to identify and declare themselves very quickly, while Catholics seem to divulge their beliefs only if directly asked. It's a cultural thing.