Devils30
YaBB God
Posts: 4,989
Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00
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« on: May 08, 2012, 03:06:37 PM » |
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I think it's simple math: There are more D+1-5 PVI states out there than R+1-5 states. (using national average based on 2008)
D+ 1-5: PA, NJ, MI, WI, MN, IA, NV, CO, NM, OR, WA, NH, ME= 143 ev
R+1-5:MO, IN, NC, FL (these are conclusively R+) , for 2008 purposes OH,AZ, VA=118 ev.
VA could easily flip to D+ this year and OH will be near the average, without those two the GOP would only have 76 ev from those states.
The GOP has a ton of likely 60% Romney/ R+8-13 states such as WV, AR, TN, LA etc. Obama's electoral votes are more efficiently allocated. If NC goes from R+3 to R+1-2, he could win nationally by 3-4 points but win 347 electoral votes.
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