Obama beats a federal prisoner by less than 20% in the West Virginia D. Primary.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

These are the people Snowstalker wants Democrats to cater to.

No one turned out, and Obama will mathematically win about 70% or more of Democrats in 2012. "Catering" doesn't necessarily mean adopting social conservatism; it means waiting until the GOP becomes more socially liberal/libertarian (which is inevitable) and then moving more towards economic left-populism through a coalition of minorities and working-class whites.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Obama isn't winning a single county in November.

Probably not.  He won 7 counties in 2008, including Morgantown's (WVU) Monongalia, Jefferson in the Eastern Panhandle and some Southern West Virginia counties that have voted Democratic for decades.  My guess is he'll still win a few counties.  It will be interesting to see if the coal country holdouts that voted for Obama in 2008 flip this time, given Obama's anti-coal policies. 

If they didn't flip in 2008, they're not flipping this year. Given current polling and Obama's more populist campaign, he'll get 44-45% in West Virginia, which obviously is bad for a Democrat but marginally better than 2008.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

And you guys wonder why I said Obama wont even break 30% in West Virginia this November.

Not that low. Based on polling, I don't see him below 40-41% barring utter collapse. Based on Obama's numbers in these counties in 2008 and the general, he really has nothing to lose other than a guaranteed base. What's really needed is for Manchin to publicly support Obama (he privately does already, but he's clearly too much of a coward). He'll still win easily given his overall popularity and that Byrd was among Obama's greatest supporters, but clearly he's a selfish jerk who wants to win 70% instead of 65%.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

That seems completely reasonable, given that it's barely an increase from 2008.