If Obama endorsed same sex marriage, would it help his campaign?

[angus]

I think it helps him.

I sort of agree with Torie, but as a practical matter, it would probably cost him any chance to retain those few states he won in 2008 which generally vote for Republicans (IN, NC, etc.) and his advisors would therefore advise him to focus like a laser on the states that he can win.  In the end, a solid 270-vote victory is better than a possible 338-vote victory, so he spends his money more effectively.

More importantly, it would probably affect his ability to push a legislative agenda through the next congress, and it is for this reason that he will likely continue the dodge ball routine. 

[angus]

When I saw this headline I was jumping for joy!

Was that before or after you had your film-school boys film you showering?

[angus]

Now that we have had nearly a week to chew on it, it really doesn't leave such a bad taste.

I'm not defending Obama's motives, but as a political manoeuvre, it seems to have been either a neutral.  (I voted that it'd be a net plus, by the way, and I think that in the long run it will be, not only for the reasons I mentioned but also because it'll force his opponent to come up with a solid statement one way or t'other.  And Mitt ain't very good at doing that sort of thing.)

[angus]

Now that we have had nearly a week to chew on it, it really doesn't leave such a bad taste.

I'm not defending Obama's motives, but as a political manoeuvre, it seems to have been either a neutral.  (I voted that it'd be a net plus, by the way, and I think that in the long run it will be, not only for the reasons I mentioned but also because it'll force his opponent to come up with a solid statement one way or t'other.  And Mitt ain't very good at doing that sort of thing.)

I'm gonna have to disagree, Angus. Many polls show a tightening of the race if not a lead for Romney. One of my female co-workers who is an Obama supporter mentioned how she saw Romney ahead by seven points, then eight points the following day. I mentioned how something must have given Mitt Romney a temporary bump. Instantly we thought about the gay marriage debacle and realized that Romney's gains are probably just a temporary backlash from it.

The funniest thing is all across the county, from here in Medina County, Ohio to Houston, Texas to Central Florida to the cowboys out west...nearly everyone you talk to dislikes large government, spending, and is opposed to gay marriage. You can't do your "Well...um...let me be clear...um...I...um...Michelle and I...um" statement the day after a state that voted for you overwhelmingly bans gay marriage and not expect some kind of backlash.

That's why I know already there is no way this election is 365 electoral votes for Obama. He will be lucky to break 290. I'm just hoping on election night I see many crying faces in Grant Park and hear Stevie Wonder's music as we await the conclusion of the concession call from Barack Obama to Mitt Romney.

Maybe, but it's hard to separate from the noise.  Rasmussen tracking poll has Romney ahead by 2 with 1500 likely voters, up from a week ago.  Here's the six-month graph:



But if look more deeply at the data, it trends with opposition to Obamacare, banking, and the perception of a global conflict between the West and Islam.  Not from gay marriage, apparently, since opposition is steady at about 40 to 55%, depending upon which polls you believe.

Now, there's a NYT/ABC poll from yesterday, and the results were mixed:  67% said they thought Obama's announcement was made "mostly for political reasons," while 24% said it was "mostly because he thinks it is right."  That could be significant, but most of those polled say it will not impact their vote.  On the other hand, among those who say it will influence their choice, 26 percent said they are less likely to vote for Obama as a result, while 16 percent say they are more likely to.  That last bit suggests that it might hurt Obama more than help.

Here's a link to the pdf if you're interested:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/05/15/us/politics/20120515-polling-docs.html