Arkansas: a tossup?

[JacobNC]

I'm not talking about the general election, of course.  I'm talking about the primary in two weeks.  

If you thought West Virginia was nuts - Hillary only got 67% there in 2008, she got 70% in Arkansas.  They're still really upset about her loss.

Plus, Obama's opponent in the Democratic primary, John Wolfe Jr., is not a convicted felon!  His platform actually looks liberal to me, but the voters won't care as long as he doesn't have a Kenyan name!

And the West Virginia primary was BEFORE Obama's endorsement of gay marriage.  Arkansas has to be toss-up/leaning Wolfe now.

I don't know where to request these.... but it might be good to start keeping maps for 2012 Democratic primaries in the Election atlas.  They're turning out to be more interesting anyone thought, for an incumbent President apparently running unopposed.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Well, Hillary did better in Arkansas because she lived there for a quarter century or so.

[mondale84]

Safe Wolfe

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

I was thinking about this today, actually.

[mondale84]

In all seriousness, last poll put Obama's approval ~70% with Dems I think... WV was 45%...so I think he's safe. Maybe Louisiana-type numbers...

[Simfan34]

What would happen if he won?

[RogueBeaver]

What would happen if he won?

The same thing that happened when that Louisiana lawyer won some delegates in March. DNC will take them away or bar them from the convnetion. Same thing happened with some LaRouchites in '96.

[Miles]

The West Virginia Democratic electorate is almost all white; there's a large black vote in Arkansas which should help Obama.

[JacobNC]

Obama's running unopposed in Kentucky, otherwise that would be a state he'd have to watch out for too.  You'd think there is some liberal strength around Louisville - but Kentucky has the highest Democratic party registration in the United States and he did worse there than he did in West Virginia in the general

[Oakvale]

Nah, AR is more Republican than WV - meaning that the "Democrats" who would vote for any white-sounding name over Obama are not, for the most part, members of the party. Safe Obama.

[TJ in Oregon]

Safe Obama, as is every other state. WV is the most rural, white, culturally Appalachan state in the country by far. Those are the characteristics needed for Obama to lose a primary. Anywhere else too many conservatives would be Republicans.

[tmthforu94]

Yeah, I think he'll be held under 70%, which is terrible for an incumbent against a no-name, but he won't come close to losing.

In all seriousness, Randall Terry or another Democrat who could actually campaign should have made a play to win West Virginia. It would have been very plausible.

[bgwah]

Nah, AR is more Republican than WV - meaning that the "Democrats" who would vote for any white-sounding name over Obama are not, for the most part, members of the party. Safe Obama.

I'd imagine there are still a ton of registered Democrats in AR.

Anyway, he'll probably do embarrassingly bad but still win. One key difference between AR and WV is that AR has blacks.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Yeah, I think he'll be held under 70%, which is terrible for an incumbent against a no-name, but he won't come close to losing.

In all seriousness, Randall Terry or another Democrat who could actually campaign should have made a play to win West Virginia. It would have been very plausible.

Agreed, and Terry should be kicking himself for not running there.

[cavalcade]

WV was about race, but it was also about coal so even with the gay marriage bit Obama should win Arkansas.

But now you've got me wondering if he would have lost WV if he'd gone pro-marriage right before that primary...

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Arkansas has more blacks, so Obama will get ~70%.

As for West Virginia, I doubt most Judd voters knew he was a felon; they probably just saw his name and voted for it because it was the guy other than Obama.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Arkansas is one of those states where right-wing Democrats are too lazy to change their registration.

[golden]

The open primary takes place on on May 22, 2012.

[Tender Branson]

Obama with ca. 60% of the vote.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Wolfe, oddly enough, is rather progressive if you look at his website. I'd vote for him.

But Obama wins--AR Dems are not as overwhelmingly white, and less big-tent than in West Virginia.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

John Wolfe, clearly.

[minionofmidas]

It's also an open primary, meaning people wanting to cast an anti Obama vote can just as easily vote for Romney. Then again, Republicans can also vote for Wolfe.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Arkansas has too many blacks and urban liberals (OK not many, but they certainly aren't non-existent in Little Rock) for Obama to do much worse than WV.

[Andrew1]

These people in southern states who have abandoned the national Democratic Party, but are still registered Democrats - why do they bother to vote in Democratic primaries? Is it just to embarrass Obama?

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

At this stage, a large number of the primary voters are there primarily for the nonpresidential races. No primary I know of allows you to vote for one party for the presidential primary and another for state/local primaries.