OR-SurveyUSA: Obama by only 4
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  OR-SurveyUSA: Obama by only 4
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Author Topic: OR-SurveyUSA: Obama by only 4  (Read 8407 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: May 10, 2012, 10:42:33 PM »

47% Obama
43% Romney

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=19eb906a-ae83-463b-9daa-3c3bda489d7d
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LiberalJunkie
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« Reply #1 on: May 10, 2012, 10:43:27 PM »

No
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MaxQue
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« Reply #2 on: May 10, 2012, 10:55:27 PM »

Failure of polling.

The President question must be first, not last after all the primaries questions.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #3 on: May 10, 2012, 10:56:41 PM »

I'm not being hackish here... but not a chance.
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NVGonzalez
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« Reply #4 on: May 11, 2012, 12:04:43 AM »

Seems legit.
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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
Just Passion Through
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« Reply #5 on: May 11, 2012, 12:07:13 AM »

wat
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #6 on: May 11, 2012, 12:18:02 AM »

Stuff like this happens sometimes with SUSA. Take a look at their OR poll from June 2008:

Obama+3

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?action=indpoll&id=4120080619019
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greenforest32
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« Reply #7 on: May 11, 2012, 12:25:30 AM »

Well I hope those AG numbers play out.

Holton is a DLCer who wants to crack down on our medical marijuana law.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #8 on: May 11, 2012, 12:53:10 AM »

Why is this so out of the realm of possibility?
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Negusa Nagast 🚀
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« Reply #9 on: May 11, 2012, 02:41:32 AM »

Why is this so out of the realm of possibility?

Because Dems have carried it every time in the general since 1988 (and it supported Mondale by a great margin relative to the national result in 1984). Democrats hold both Senate seats and the held the Governor's mansion in 2010. This state is part of the solid Democratic coast, which would only break ranks if the Republicans were winning in a massive landslide.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #10 on: May 11, 2012, 08:01:18 AM »

Mittmentum rolls on.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #11 on: May 11, 2012, 09:11:08 AM »

SurveyUSA can come up with some odd numbers sometimes. Romney won't be anywhere near that close in Oregon.
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cavalcade
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« Reply #12 on: May 11, 2012, 09:55:23 AM »

Kerry beat Bush by 4 in Oregon, so it's not impossible for Romney to be down by, say, 6.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #13 on: May 11, 2012, 10:17:20 AM »

SurveyUSA is a Republican pollster. They fixed the 2003 "election" in Kentucky by putting out a press release saying their polls had already decided the "election."
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #14 on: May 11, 2012, 10:26:38 AM »

Rasmussen's tracker has Romney up by 7, and if we factor in a 3.9-point house effect as determined by Nate Silver (and I think Rassy has partially fixed their model since 2010), this result would still be consistent with Romney up by 3 nationally.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #15 on: May 11, 2012, 10:28:07 AM »

Rasmussen's tracker has Romney up by 7, and if we factor in a 3.9-point house effect as determined by Nate Silver (and I think Rassy has partially fixed their model since 2010), this result would still be consistent with Romney up by 3 nationally.

Yes, but all other polls have Obama winning nationwide.
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tpfkaw
wormyguy
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« Reply #16 on: May 11, 2012, 10:29:21 AM »

Rasmussen's tracker has Romney up by 7, and if we factor in a 3.9-point house effect as determined by Nate Silver (and I think Rassy has partially fixed their model since 2010), this result would still be consistent with Romney up by 3 nationally.

Yes, but all other polls have Obama winning nationwide.

All other polls weren't conducted after Obama's gay marriage announcement (which, sadly, seems to have hurt substantially).
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marvelrobbins
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« Reply #17 on: May 11, 2012, 10:56:20 AM »

SurveryUSA has had some crazy results like Mccain being ahead In Minnesotta in fall 2008.

RAS Is full of It by Romney by 7.The day after Romney as bully story breaks they have him
ahead by 7.PPP had polling where many already thought Obama way for gay Marrage.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #18 on: May 11, 2012, 11:01:14 AM »

The bullying story is brand new, so the polls haven't even reflected it yet.

Plus, Obama's stance on gay marriage will actually help him. Anyone who was really, really, REALLY against gay marriage was already against Obama.
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Ben Romney
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« Reply #19 on: May 11, 2012, 11:27:18 AM »

It`s possible

Gore won over Bush with 0.5% and Kerry with 4% only!!
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Oakvale
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« Reply #20 on: May 11, 2012, 11:48:23 AM »
« Edited: May 11, 2012, 11:50:10 AM by Oakvale »

Rasmussen's tracker has Romney up by 7, and if we factor in a 3.9-point house effect as determined by Nate Silver (and I think Rassy has partially fixed their model since 2010), this result would still be consistent with Romney up by 3 nationally.

Yes, but all other polls have Obama winning nationwide.

All other polls weren't conducted after Obama's gay marriage announcement (which, sadly, seems to have hurt substantially).

What evidence is there for this? Huh

EDIT: Unless I'm much mistaken there's a Rasmussen tracker, which.... no, and a Dick Morris poll, which people should be banned for posting. Not exactly a wealth of evidence, wormy.
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tpfkaw
wormyguy
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« Reply #21 on: May 11, 2012, 12:59:53 PM »

Rasmussen's tracker has Romney up by 7, and if we factor in a 3.9-point house effect as determined by Nate Silver (and I think Rassy has partially fixed their model since 2010), this result would still be consistent with Romney up by 3 nationally.

Yes, but all other polls have Obama winning nationwide.

All other polls weren't conducted after Obama's gay marriage announcement (which, sadly, seems to have hurt substantially).

What evidence is there for this? Huh

EDIT: Unless I'm much mistaken there's a Rasmussen tracker, which.... no, and a Dick Morris poll, which people should be banned for posting. Not exactly a wealth of evidence, wormy.

There's also the SurveyUSA poll showing very lukewarm support for SSM in urban areas (including only about 2/3rds in San Francisco).
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NVGonzalez
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« Reply #22 on: May 11, 2012, 01:07:32 PM »

I hope the Romney campaign actually believes this poll and throws in cash and resources to this state.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #23 on: May 11, 2012, 01:09:18 PM »

And I hope Dems continue to underestimate Mitt Romney.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #24 on: May 11, 2012, 01:13:25 PM »

SurveyUsa is a solid pollster. They did a better job on Amendment 1 than PPP.
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