Challenge: Anti-incumbent redistricting

[Nichlemn]

Some polls suggest that Americans would vote to defeat every single Congressman if they could. Let's try to make this a reality!

My attempt at New Hampshire:



Each district contains almost exactly 50% of the population of each of the previous districts. Guinta and Bass are both drawn into the blue district, which is 57%-42% Obama and contains Ann McLane Kuster's hometown. The green district is 52-47% Obama and contains Carol Shea-Porter's hometown. The population deviance is +/- 45. Cities in general I attempt to keep whole so a challenging local candidate can get a larger home boost.

What I could have done (but didn't) was analyse the Congressional primaries and general elections to a) draw districts suitable for primary challengers and b) find areas of candidate-specific strength. I'm also a bit concerned that Guinta or Bass could quite easily move to the green district given that it borders their home towns.

Naturally in a two district state you can't scramble the districts up too much. But in a larger state, you could wreak all kinds of havoc.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I don't know that you can do this in Ohio due to the Cleveland African-American district.

[TJ in Oregon]

Do the Congressmen have to run in the district they live in for the purposes of this challenge? If so, we can just draw Marcia Fudge out of here district and someone else would have to win. If not, it would be almost impossible since there are too many prominent Congressmen in staunchly partisan areas. For example, if there is any Republican district in Butler County, OH, you can bet John Boehner will win it, and it's too big to put in a Democratic district without making all the surrounding incuments safe, unless you draw something tortured like attaching it to Columbus.

[muon2]

Do the Congressmen have to run in the district they live in for the purposes of this challenge? If so, we can just draw Marcia Fudge out of here district and someone else would have to win. If not, it would be almost impossible since there are too many prominent Congressmen in staunchly partisan areas. For example, if there is any Republican district in Butler County, OH, you can bet John Boehner will win it, and it's too big to put in a Democratic district without making all the surrounding incuments safe, unless you draw something tortured like attaching it to Columbus.

I agree. You can target some number of them, but in a state with large partisan areas and the ability to represent areas away from one's home, it become impossible to get them all. For example, a lot of the IL plan was drawn as an anti-GOP-incumbent map. Kinzinger was placed in JJJ's CD, but ran against Manzullo instead insuring one would be eliminated. Walsh and Hultgren were targeted for a primary against each other, but Walsh opted to run in his relocated, now Dem-leaning IL-8 instead. A non-partisan map could have put pressure on a couple of Dems as well, but even getting half into trouble would be hard.

[Nichlemn]

Do the Congressmen have to run in the district they live in for the purposes of this challenge? If so, we can just draw Marcia Fudge out of here district and someone else would have to win. If not, it would be almost impossible since there are too many prominent Congressmen in staunchly partisan areas. For example, if there is any Republican district in Butler County, OH, you can bet John Boehner will win it, and it's too big to put in a Democratic district without making all the surrounding incuments safe, unless you draw something tortured like attaching it to Columbus.

Indeed, it's going to be impossible to ensure the defeat of every incumbent. Even my example map doesn't come close to guaranteeing it. The idea is to scramble the districts such as to maximise the expected number of incumbent defeats.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

There is also the instructive case of Rep. John Barrow (D-GA).  The Georgia GOP has twice tried to gerrymander him out of his seat by taking the portion of his district he lives in and putting it in another district.  His response both times has been to move into the district that was made up mainly of voters already familiar with him.  We'll see in November if he survives his second gerrymander.

[Miles]

Here's my attempt at LA, though its pretty ugly.

This map could defeat up to 4 incumbents.




CD1- This goes from 71% McCain to only 57%; mayor Landrieu is popular, so he could have a chance of beating Scalise in a good year.

CD2- This district becomes even more Baton Rouge-oriented, so Richmond could draw a tough primary opponent from there. Its 56% black VAP.

CD3- Boustany's district was split into 4 parts, the plurality of his old 7th is here. However, unlike in real life, Landry would have the advantage in the jungle primary.

CD4/5- CD5 now becomes 51% Obama down from 62% McCain; it also has a 55% D average. I'm guessing Alexander would either retire or challenge Flemming in the 72% McCain CD4.

CD6- Cassidy remains pretty safe. He still has a good base here and this CD6 is 74% McCain.

[krazen1211]

This could seeming be easily solved by drawing concentric baconstrips around each state.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This could seeming be easily solved by drawing concentric baconstrips around each state.

Maybe anti-incumbent redistricting while still at least somewhat respecting communities of interest?

[Nichlemn]

This could seeming be easily solved by drawing concentric baconstrips around each state.

Yes, but I don't think it's necessarily easy. If all you want to do is scramble up every CD, then that'll work, but scrambling them up in the right ways should be quite difficult.