GA-Landmark Communications/Rosetta Stone: Romney+11

[old timey villain]

No way Obama only gets 40%. 44-45% is absolutely his floor in the state, and I should know, I live here for gods' sake. I think pollsters are underestimating the minority vote in Georgia. The black vote was 30% in 2008, and it only dropped 2 points, to 28%, in the 2010 midterms.

[old timey villain]

Yeah, seems fishy to me. Georgia is undergoing a political transformation similar to what's happening in VA or NC. We still have a distinctly conservative tilt but Romney aint winning by 11 points. Especially since, ironically, the people here most likely to vote Republican are the people most likely to have issues with Romney's faith.

[old timey villain]

And I also want to predict that Cobb and Gwinnett counties will be unbelievably close this year. Whoever wins will do it by 1-2 points. Conservative suburbanites are fleeing Cobb and Gwinnett and being replaced by minorities, immigrants, and left leaning yuppies (especially in the more urban areas of Cobb).

Cobb is becoming more like Fairfax county, VA and Gwinnett is becoming more like Middlesex County, NJ - in terms of demographics

[old timey villain]

And I also want to predict that Cobb and Gwinnett counties will be unbelievably close this year. Whoever wins will do it by 1-2 points. Conservative suburbanites are fleeing Cobb and Gwinnett and being replaced by minorities, immigrants, and left leaning yuppies (especially in the more urban areas of Cobb).

Cobb is becoming more like Fairfax county, VA and Gwinnett is becoming more like Middlesex County, NJ - in terms of demographics

What about the northern part of Fulton County around Alpharetta?

Demographically, it's similar to a lot of the democratic leaning upscale suburbs up north, but it's still pretty strongly Republican. It has a lot of Jewish people, for instance, but most I've spoken to about politics are also Republicans. There has been some sort of a shift among the white residents up there, so the vote isn't as uniformly GOP as it is elsewhere in the state, but they still skew strongly Republican.

The Asian population is BOOMING up there, so when they become politically active, the area could swing to the Democrats.

[old timey villain]

The brick wall is definitely the Northern arc of Cherokee, Forsyth and Hall, but I think you're underestimating North Fulton. I'm not from North Fulton but my entire family is. I have relatives in Sandy Springs, Roswell and Alpharetta. Many of the people that live there are Republicans, but unlike whites in other areas of the state, they're more willing to vote for the right kind of Democrat. Most are transplants who are fairly worldly and open to new ideas and new cultures, which money tends to afford, so they're not as stunted by things like race.

If there's a deep dislike for Obama up there, it actually is probably related to his policies, and likely has little to do with a primal fear of his race or background. Republican support in N Fulton is tied strongly to lower taxes and streamlined government.

I can definitely see North Fulton swinging away from the GOP at least from the state level. When the seeds of the GOP were sown here several decades ago, they were based in the growing suburbs of Atlanta. These people were sick of the good 'ol boy network of Democrats who funneled money into South Georgia and other rural areas of the state.

In the past 10 years, the Georgia GOP has become much more associated with rural, white conservatives in South Georgia, and they've established their own good ol boy network among Republicans down there. If voters in North Fulton feel like the party has abandoned them, they might be willing to support a fiscally moderate Democratic party that has their needs in mind.

[old timey villain]

Here's a picture of Fulton county that shows correlation between a precinct's vote and its minority presence.



By and large the more minority a district is, the bluer it will be. North Fulton is pretty red, but there are some notable blue or swing districts in the region, that don't always correspond with a high minority population. For instance, Sandy Springs gave Obama about 46% of the vote, yet the minority vote in this town was only between 18-19%. Clearly, not every rich, white person in Sandy Springs was voting for their economic interests. Things could swing back with Romney on the ticket, but I think for some of these voters, supporting the more progressive and worldly candidate trumps economic interests (since many in Sandy Springs are rich beyond belief and know their money aint going anywhere)

[old timey villain]

Compare our 2010 results to 2006, when the Democrats only got 38% in the governor's race, and that was supposed to be a good year for Democrats. The fact is, GA democrats performed better in 2010 during a Republican wave than they did in 2006 during a Democratic wave.

[old timey villain]

If it were 1996 and Clinton came out in support for gay marriage, it would cost him white support. I can guarantee you that those 23% of white voters who supported Obama have no problem with gay marriage and will still vote for him this year.

It'll be hard to move anyone from that 76% over to Obama's side, but the 23% are firmly in support of the president, I can guarantee you that.