Election Projection has Romney winning PV but Obama winning EV

[pbrower2a]

I'm not sure I believe it- many Dem states have higher turnout.

That depends upon GOTV drives that don;t begin until August.

[pbrower2a]

I don't see how mathematically. Obama is going to destroy in CA, NY, and IL. TX can't begin to compensate for the combined weight of those three. All the other big states are fairly close. And there just aren't that many people in WV and OK.

Possible for now. President Obama could lose an even shift of 4.0% in all states, and although he would lose the popular vote he would still win  every state that either Gore or Kerry ever won -- and Colorado and Nevada as well. Republicans would still pick up North Carolina, Indiana, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. 

That's not to say that such will happen. Union vote drives in some northeastern states will likely push results to something similar to 2008. 

[pbrower2a]

Union vote drives in some northeastern states will likely push results to something similar to 2008. 

Aren't the various WI recalls showing that the anti-union vote drives are more powerful than the union vote drives?

Texans can send money to the Walker for Gauleiter campaign, but they can't vote for him.

The right response to "if you like your job you had better vote for Walker" is to tell the ideologically-charged caller from out of state  exactly what that caller wants to hear so... and then vote in according with what is best for Wisconsin. 

Republican state senators did badly in the recent recall elections... when you consider that those state  senators were able to win in a year(2008) in which Republicans did badly in Wisconsin. Most of those recalled were from very R-leaning districts. 

[pbrower2a]

I think this scenario is somewhat likely and credible given the dynamics of the race, but while on the site, I found the following projections for U.S. House and Senate:

House:
Current D: 193
Projected D: 191 (-2)
Current R: 242
Projected R: 244 (+2)

Did the Republicans manage to gerrymander the entire country this badly, or is this biased projection? I knew we would have difficulties reclaiming the House this go around, but how can we lose seats in this climate?

You're forgetting that reapportionment between the States also favored the GOP.  Of the twelve seats that were switched between States, 11 were gained by GOP states and only 1 from Democratic states.  7 were lost by Democratic states, 3 by swing states and 2 from GOP states.  So even before considering intrastate gerrymanders from redistricting, the GOP gained 5 seats just from reapportionment.

I hadn't even considered that. Thanks. As I said, I haven't dug into the dynamics of the HoR makeup post-redistricting. I'm guessing then we'll need to take a minimum of 30 seats to regain control, in a more Republican-biased playing field? Any information on how many currently held Republican seats can be flipped realistically?

I look at the low approval ratings for Congress and I see lots of vulnerable incumbents. To be sure, most approval ratings show that people dislike Congress in general but theirs in particular. That is over.  Indeed, a recent poll asking what people thought of "their Congressional Representative", and the approval rate was a dismal 41%.  To be sure, some long-term Representatives will fit their districts, and they probably have approval ratings in the 50s and 60s... but extremists in moderate districts are vulnerable. Most of those are Tea party winners of 2010.

I don't know whether it applies to Congressional Representatives; it may change with redistricting in individual districts. On the average incumbent Senators and Governors whose approval ratings are 44% six months before the election have about a 50% chance of being re-elected, and the chance of re-election drops off rapidly to near-zero as approval ratings sink below 44% and rise rapidly toward unity as approval approaches 50%. Effective, well-fitting politicians show why they were elected and ineffective and ill-fitting politicians show that electing them was a mistake.

The general ballot for the US Congress favors Democrats in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Colorado. For state legislatures (a good surrogate?) I see the same for Michigan.