Election Projection has Romney winning PV but Obama winning EV

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As of May 10, Election Projection has Romney moving into an extremely narrow (49.3%-49.2%) popular vote victory while Obama continues to win in the EC by a fairly comfortable margin, 303-235.

EP has been active since 2004 and very accurate; they got the 2010 House elections (projection was R+64, result was R+63) and 2008 PV (projection was Obama+7.48%, result was Obama +7.27%) almost spot-on. However, its owner is a conservative Tea Partier, so if you reflexively distrust such types, I suppose this won't be taken seriously.

Here is a link: http://www.electionprojection.com/2012elections/president12.php

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Union vote drives in some northeastern states will likely push results to something similar to 2008. 

Aren't the various WI recalls showing that the anti-union vote drives are more powerful than the union vote drives?

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No way in hell the GOP gains seats in the House this year.

Well, OK, here's a link: http://www.electionprojection.com/2012elections/house12.php

If you scroll down a bit, you see he projects every single House race individually. Which ones do you disagree with? Because they all seem reasonable and they all do add up to a net Republican seat gain.

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That being said, the guy does have some quality control issues, especially at this point in the season. As an example, he has MA painted as having a GOP house pickup, yet no such change is listed below. This is a result of him having less time to devote to the site and thus less time to read up on events concerning each seat and update regularly prior to the primaries and such. Once the primaries are completed, the forumlaic projections take over and he fixes any misplaced candidate lists and miscolored states.

No, he explained that somewhere -- it's the same reason Louisiana is marked as 1 Democratic gain. Massachusetts loses 1 Democratic seat, so it's counted as R+1 (actually, Massachusetts is D-1, but in American politics D-1 = R+1). Louisiana loses 1 Republican seat, so it's counted as D+1 for the same reason. The formulaic projections have already begun.

This guy also messed up the 2006 elections pretty badly... but that still makes him 3-1. Also have to consider the motives of this. He probably wants Obama to lose, but wants the Republicans to be punished for nominating someone who is just as conservative instead of more conservative than their last successful nominee.

This is not accurate. I followed his site closely in 2006 and he got the Senate 100% right, his projections had the Democrats taking the House and he got every Governorship right except Minnesota.

You must be confusing his "projections" (based off a mathematical formula combining polling, partisanship and back then approval ratings) and his personal "predictions" (what his gut tells him).

Yeah. In 2006, his 'projections' were quite accurate, but he repeatedly voiced his opinion that the polls (and the projections based off them) were wrong and that Republicans would retain Congress. His opinion was wrong, but he doesn't base the projections off of opinions, but off of facts. He was more pessimistic in 2008.

At this point Romney winning a popular majority and still losing the EV isn't out of the question.

Now all the Romney campaign has to do is translate a lead in the PV into a lead in the EV and they are in.

I wonder if you're going to offer us something more than another empty quite.

I could make an issue out of your word error like you did with mine but that would be rude so I won't.

I could say "guess whose talking", but that'd be rude too.

I could say guess who makes more grammatical and spelling errors on this forum than anyone else, but that would be rude, so I won't.

I could say that at least I put some efforts in learning a foreign language, very differing from my mother's tongue, but that would be rude as well.

Fortunately, neither you and me are rude.

And I admire you for your efforts.  Keep up the good work.

Kalwejt speaks better English than the average Brighton Beach resident.

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That being said, the guy does have some quality control issues, especially at this point in the season. As an example, he has MA painted as having a GOP house pickup, yet no such change is listed below. This is a result of him having less time to devote to the site and thus less time to read up on events concerning each seat and update regularly prior to the primaries and such. Once the primaries are completed, the forumlaic projections take over and he fixes any misplaced candidate lists and miscolored states.

No, he explained that somewhere -- it's the same reason Louisiana is marked as 1 Democratic gain. Massachusetts loses 1 Democratic seat, so it's counted as R+1 (actually, Massachusetts is D-1, but in American politics D-1 = R+1). Louisiana loses 1 Republican seat, so it's counted as D+1 for the same reason. The formulaic projections have already begun.

What the hell do you mean no? I guess I just imagined sending him 5 or 6 emails pointing out errors in candidate lists and such back during the 2010 cycle. I may be wrong about the MA example, but my point still stands in general.

The projections have partially started, but it is impossible for them to be fully in place for a particular seat until the primary finishes. For instance, the generic ballot portion is in place as is the partisanship of the state or seat, but not the horserace polling between the candidates, since the candidates haven't been selected in every state yet. I can't remember if he includes the pundit ratings before the primary or not until afterwards.

He includes them (other pundits' ratings) now. And by 'no', I mean 'no'; your example about MA House races is wrong, there's a real reason MA is labeled R+1 even though Republicans don't pick up a seat there. As for candidate lists, I'm not one to deny you sent him 5-6 emails some years ago.