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Author Topic: Canada 2008: Harper wins his majority  (Read 1645 times)
RogueBeaver
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« on: May 12, 2012, 05:25:50 pm »
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Without the cultural gaffes and stock market advice Harper takes a narrow, 160-seat majority. How do things develop over the next 4 years?
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« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



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Pingvin
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« Reply #1 on: May 13, 2012, 01:44:46 am »
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BRACE YOURSEVLES
THE HASHEMITE IS COMING
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« Reply #2 on: May 15, 2012, 11:13:03 pm »
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Well, assuming Layton dies still... if the NDP selects Mulcair, 2012 results in another Tory minority. Harper has enough, and resigns. 2012 Liberal campaign mirrors 2011 and implodes with Ignatieff. That's if Ignatieff and Mulcair win their leadership races. Without 2011, the NDP would be less likely to want someone like Mulcair, and might end up settling for someone else like Peggy Nash.  The Liberals would actually have a leadership convention unlike Ignatieff's coronation, providing Dion resigns. If Rae wins, all bets are off.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #3 on: May 17, 2012, 08:32:23 pm »
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NDP selects Nash, Grits Rae.
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« Reply #4 on: May 17, 2012, 09:38:54 pm »
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The real question is - how does Harper achieve his majority in this circumstance?

If Dion is leader, and the Tories just do a bit better everywhere, then the NDP is perhaps less likely to break through in Quebec, and the Liberals are still Official Opposition.

On the other hand, if we pretend that the 2008 election never happened and transpose the 2011 results onto 2008, then things are a bit different.
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« Reply #5 on: May 17, 2012, 09:45:31 pm »
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NDP selects Nash.

No. Mulcair was just as much a frontrunner in the party to replace Layton even before 2011.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #6 on: May 17, 2012, 10:06:53 pm »
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Smid: The former.

Hatman: So who's the ABM in this scenario?
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« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." - H.L. Mencken
HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #7 on: May 17, 2012, 10:08:48 pm »
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No one could have predicted the Orange Crush in Quebec, which means, assuming Layton dies, Mulcair would still seem less necessary. In real life, the NDP folks realized that they needed a leader with strong Quebec roots.

I doubt that would happen if Harper won his majority in 2008. Hell, it might have even been Topp. Which would be detrimental. If they chose Topp, it would have been a second CPC majority in 2012.

And I don't think there's any way Harper would step down. If he did, I have no idea who the heck would replace him.
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Fearless Leader
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« Reply #8 on: May 31, 2012, 10:23:48 pm »
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The real question is - how does Harper achieve his majority in this circumstance?

If Dion is leader, and the Tories just do a bit better everywhere, then the NDP is perhaps less likely to break through in Quebec, and the Liberals are still Official Opposition.

On the other hand, if we pretend that the 2008 election never happened and transpose the 2011 results onto 2008, then things are a bit different.

I don't think an Orange Crush is in the works for Quebec in 2008, unless that in and of itself is the POD for this alternate election. However as specified by the OP I think a 160 Tory majority is doable without the cultural gaffes and market advice. A number of seats were quite close and I don't think it's too much of a stretch to have 17 additional ones go Tory...

Using Wikipedia Here's a start...

1. Brampton West (OTL there was a recount)
2. Kitchener-Waterloo (OTL recount)
3. Esquimalt-Juan De Fuca (OTL recount)
4. Vancouver South (OTL recount)
5. Edmonton-Stratcona (OTL NDP victory by about 500 votes)
Western Arctic (OTL NDP victory by about 500 votes)
Welland (OTL NDP victory by about 500 votes)
6. Burnaby-Douglas (OTL NDP Victory by about 800 votes)
Brampton Springdale (OTL Liberal Victory by about 800 votes)
Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe (OTL Liberal victory by about 1300 votes) 
Add into that some more vote splitting between the Liberals/NDP and a lower youth turnout and I think a number of other seats could go blue.

Now as to what Harper would do in such a situation...that's a good question. Obviously his 2008 budget is a good place to start as is his 2011 budget. Federal subsidy to political parties is gone along with other things. Probably less of a stimulus package, though I wouldn't go so far as to say Harper would completely do nothing as a stimulus is a golden chance to win votes in Ontario and Quebec. The current deficit would be considerably less though IMO. With a smaller deficit I think Canada on the whole is a bit stronger in TTL. Naval construction also probably gets a head start (perhaps as a part of the stimulus?).

I don't see Rae being Dion's successor in this scenario though. I think given his close loss to Dion, Ignatieff is still the heir apparent here.

As for the NDP, I think a Tory victory in 2008 effectively keeps the BQ alive and prevents the Orange Crush. Without the personal magnetism of Jack Layton I don't see it happening or the NDP electing Mulcair to succeed him. Nash or Dewar are good possibilities though. 

Assuming the Tories play their cards well, I think another majority or at the very least a strong minority is in order for 2012.
 
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Peter the Lefty
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« Reply #9 on: June 09, 2012, 11:39:36 am »
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2008: Harper wins a breakthrough in Quebec.  Gilles Duceppe resigns as leader of the Bloc Quebecois after the Torries break through in Quebec at the Bloc's expense (not as much as the NDP did in our timeline in 2011, though).  The Liberals elect Ignatieff as the new leader of the party, after he beats Bob Rae.  Having only had to do one minority, Harper isn't as used to moderating himself as he in our timeline, so he breaks loose with his red-meat conservative agenda, banning gay marriage and most late term abortion in 2010.  Before that, he unleashes a Thatcherite tide of deregulation, social spending cuts, and corporate tax giveaways.  Conservative support tumbles in Quebec, and the Bloc makes a roaring comeback in the polls after Duceppe pulls a Trudeau and rescinds his resignation.  Ignatieff moves much to the right on many issues, only half-opposing much of Harper's fiscal agenda on grounds of trying to win back Conservative voters (partially because the Liberals did much of the same things while they were in office), even though he vehemently opposes his social agenda.  Layton, however, skillfully capitalizes on Ignatieff's lack of effectiveness and campaigns against Harper's agenda very well.  He accuses Harper of "insulting" the Quebecers who'd placed their trust in him a couple of years before, and manages to, with Tom Mulcair at his side, campaign very well for the NDP in Quebec, hampering the Bloc's rise in the polls.  By 2011, the NDP have narrowly surpassed the Liberals in the polls nationally, with the Conservatives at 34%, the NDP at 27%, and the Liberals at 25%.  The Bloc is down slightly at 7.5%, and the Greens are up at 6%.  More amazingly, the NDP is just behind Bloc in Quebec, at 28%, with the Bloc at 32%, the Liberals at 19%, and the Conservatives way down at 17%.  The Greens are in limbo with about 3%.  The NDP is anxiously anticipating the next election.  The Liberals begin to ponder a leadership change, but Rae refuses to wield the knife, (even though he ends up doing Ignatieff's job in the House much of the time due to his absences).  However, Jack dies in 2011, and the NDP, shocked, is forced to hold a leadership convention, which is won, narrowly, by Brian Topp (it's one thing if you're looking to make a breakthrough in Quebec; it's something else if you're trying to defend seats that you already have there).  Harper wins another majority in 2012.  The NDP becomes the official opposition (even though they fall significantly after Topp's election), the Bloc holds steady, remaining the second largest party in Quebec, and does gain a few seats, in fact, and the Liberals fall tremendously. 
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Smid
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« Reply #10 on: June 14, 2012, 01:06:04 am »
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Peter - I must disagree. I can't imagine the majority-delivering breakthrough occurring in Quebec, which was Dion's home province. The Tories were close to majority territory in part because Dion's English was less than superb, and their vote increased predominantly in the rest of Canada. It's more likely that Harper picks up the final half dozen or so seats from ROC, as Fearless Leader suggests. I think for the most part I agree with Fearless Leader's take on the scenario.

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Also, I think Harper is very strategic. I don't think his moderating himself is because he's used to having to deal with opposition parties following two terms of minority government, I think it's because he knows that it's pointless legislating something that will probably cost you the next election and then be changed back once you're out of office. Additionally, he'd still have to deal with a Senate minority for the first few years of his second (majority) term, which would prevent him from legislating anything he wants.
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Peter the Lefty
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« Reply #11 on: June 14, 2012, 03:52:09 pm »
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Well, Quebec did flirt with the Torries briefly in 2008.  Though I guess you're right about the SoCon agenda (and the Senate).  
« Last Edit: August 02, 2012, 05:44:27 pm by Peternerdman »Logged



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