Canada 2008: Harper wins his majority

[Smid]

The real question is - how does Harper achieve his majority in this circumstance?

If Dion is leader, and the Tories just do a bit better everywhere, then the NDP is perhaps less likely to break through in Quebec, and the Liberals are still Official Opposition.

On the other hand, if we pretend that the 2008 election never happened and transpose the 2011 results onto 2008, then things are a bit different.

[Smid]

Peter - I must disagree. I can't imagine the majority-delivering breakthrough occurring in Quebec, which was Dion's home province. The Tories were close to majority territory in part because Dion's English was less than superb, and their vote increased predominantly in the rest of Canada. It's more likely that Harper picks up the final half dozen or so seats from ROC, as Fearless Leader suggests. I think for the most part I agree with Fearless Leader's take on the scenario.

2006


2008



Also, I think Harper is very strategic. I don't think his moderating himself is because he's used to having to deal with opposition parties following two terms of minority government, I think it's because he knows that it's pointless legislating something that will probably cost you the next election and then be changed back once you're out of office. Additionally, he'd still have to deal with a Senate minority for the first few years of his second (majority) term, which would prevent him from legislating anything he wants.