Canada 2008: Harper wins his majority

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, assuming Layton dies still... if the NDP selects Mulcair, 2012 results in another Tory minority. Harper has enough, and resigns. 2012 Liberal campaign mirrors 2011 and implodes with Ignatieff. That's if Ignatieff and Mulcair win their leadership races. Without 2011, the NDP would be less likely to want someone like Mulcair, and might end up settling for someone else like Peggy Nash.  The Liberals would actually have a leadership convention unlike Ignatieff's coronation, providing Dion resigns. If Rae wins, all bets are off.

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP selects Nash.

No. Mulcair was just as much a frontrunner in the party to replace Layton even before 2011.