Romney: possibly West Virginia
Yeah, no. Obama's still polling in high 30's to low 40's even when undecideds are counted. He'll at least win McDowell and Boone, and probably Jefferson since it's an extension of NOVA.
Obama is deeply unpopular in West Virginia - I mean, come on, he beat a federal prisoner by less than 20 points. That's embarrassing for an incumbent President. My guess is, if that many are willing to vote for a no-name against Obama, a good chunk of them will vote for Romney over Obama. His policies aren't popular in West Virginia; same with his race, I'd say.
Last poll, which I think had a Democratic-lean considering the numbers it gave to Manchin and Earl, had Romney up by 17, 54-37. Undecideds typically break against the incumbent, but for arguments sake, let's say it's a pretty even split. That gives Romney around 58% of the vote, compared to Obama's 41%. That swing would give Romney every county in the state - the only county that will be close under this scenario is McDowell. Hence the word "possibly" I added.
