What states will be unanimous in counties?

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Obama definite:

Hawaii
Rhode Island

Obama likely:

Massachusetts
Vermont

Romney definite:

Oklahoma

Romney likely:

Utah

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Romney: possibly West Virginia

No. Obama's still polling in high 30's to low 40's even when undecideds are counted. He'll at least win McDowell and Boone, and probably Jefferson since it's an extension of NOVA. Obama may be a terrible candidate for the state, but Romney is not a Scots-Irish veteran.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Romney: possibly West Virginia

Yeah, no. Obama's still polling in high 30's to low 40's even when undecideds are counted. He'll at least win McDowell and Boone, and probably Jefferson since it's an extension of NOVA.

Obama is deeply unpopular in West Virginia - I mean, come on, he beat a federal prisoner by less than 20 points. That's embarrassing for an incumbent President. My guess is, if that many are willing to vote for a no-name against Obama, a good chunk of them will vote for Romney over Obama. His policies aren't popular in West Virginia; same with his race, I'd say.

And he still got more votes than Romney.

He might not be popular, but he wasn't any more popular in 2008 when he won several counties.

Only due to the high Democratic registration advantage. A good percentage of both Judd (?) and Obama supporters will flip over to Romney this fall.

I would say he's less popular. At one point in 2008, some thought he might actually have a chance in West Virginia. I remember some polling firm came out with a poll in mid-October having him up. I'd expect Obama anyways to perform a little worse, just because of national environment, this time being much less favorable to him.

The climate by Election Day will be worse for Obama than 2008. This has not happened to a re-elected president since Woodrow Wilson. Given that Carter was ahead of Reagan mere days before the 1980 election, and that McCain led Obama as late as September, saying the national climate will be worse for Obama seems a bit hasty. If Obama does better nationally, he'll probably do better in WV, and vice versa.