NC-Rasmussen: Romney leads by 8

[Tender Branson]

North Carolina: Romney 51%, Obama 43%

Eighty-eight percent (88%) of North Carolina Republicans now support Romney, compared to 76% of Democrats in the state who back Obama. Nearly one-in-five North Carolina Democrats (18%) now favor the Republican. The GOP challenger holds a modest 49% to 45% lead among voters not affiliated with either party, but the two men were tied with 38% support each among this group a month ago.

Obama edged Republican John McCain 50% to 49% in the 2008 election to become the first Democrat to carry North Carolina since Jimmy Carter in 1976. Now 46% approve of the job Obama is doing as president, while 54% disapprove. The latter finding is up four points from a month ago. The new numbers include 28% who Strongly Approve of the president’s job performance and 45% who Strongly Disapprove.

Fifty-four percent (54%) of voters in the state share a favorable opinion of Romney, including 23% who regard him Very Favorably. The former Massachusetts governor is seen unfavorably by 43%, with 23% who hold a Very Unfavorable view of him. This marks an increase of several points in both his Very Favorables and Very Unfavorables from last month.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/north_carolina/election_2012_north_carolina_president

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Certainly plausible... but I think what it shows is that Obama will have a harder time turning out Democrats than Romney getting out GOPers... but that's hardly surprising.

It seems the battle will be for the middle ground...

[Miles]

PPP's last tweet:

Our NC poll out later this morning continues to find Obama with a small lead in the state, as most non Rasmussen polling has.

[argentarius]

PPP's last tweet:

Our NC poll out later this morning continues to find Obama with a small lead in the state, as most non Rasmussen polling has.

Tbh PPP's polling has been trending democrat big time since the start of this year. Vice-versa for Rasmussen.

[Tender Branson]

Very hard to believe that Obama would get less among Democrats than John Kerry.

He got 90% of them in 2008. He probably won't drop below 85%.

PPP's probably got the more accurate poll.

[argentarius]

Very hard to believe that Obama would get less among Democrats than John Kerry.

He got 90% of them in 2008. He probably won't drop below 85%.

PPP's probably got the more accurate poll.

More accurate by a bit. I think Romney probably has a lead of around 1%.

[Tender Branson]

Very hard to believe that Obama would get less among Democrats than John Kerry.

He got 90% of them in 2008. He probably won't drop below 85%.

PPP's probably got the more accurate poll.

More accurate by a bit. I think Romney probably has a lead of around 1%.

Maybe, but it's certainly not Romney+8.

[argentarius]

Very hard to believe that Obama would get less among Democrats than John Kerry.

He got 90% of them in 2008. He probably won't drop below 85%.

PPP's probably got the more accurate poll.

More accurate by a bit. I think Romney probably has a lead of around 1%.

Maybe, but it's certainly not Romney+8.

Definitely not, but this is the first time I've seen a ras poll fit their national numbers.

[Lambsbread]

IIRC, PPP is based in NC, so they would likely have the most accurate poll.

I'd say a good aggregate prediction would be Romney 47, Obama 45 for now.

[krazen1211]

IIRC, PPP is based in NC, so they would likely have the most accurate poll.

I'd say a good aggregate prediction would be Romney 47, Obama 45 for now.

Other pollsters did much better on Amendment 1.

[Tender Branson]

IIRC, PPP is based in NC, so they would likely have the most accurate poll.

I'd say a good aggregate prediction would be Romney 47, Obama 45 for now.

Other pollsters did much better on Amendment 1.

PPP did a good job on Amendment 1.

And:

PPP shows the same:

Q2 The Republican candidates for Senate are Jon Bruning, Sharyn Elander, Deb Fischer, Pat Flynn, Don Stenberg, and Spencer Zimmerman. If the primary was today, who would you vote for?

Deb Fischer .................................................... 37%
Jon Bruning..................................................... 33%
Don Stenberg.................................................. 17%
Pat Flynn......................................................... 2%
Sharyn Elander ............................................... 1%
Spencer Zimmerman ...................................... 1%
Not sure .......................................................... 7%

PPP surveyed 272 likely Republican primary voters on May 14th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-5.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NE_515.pdf

Real results:

41% Fischer
36% Bruning
19% Stenberg
  3% Flynn
  1% Elander
  1% Zimmerman

http://electionresults.sos.ne.gov/resultsSW.aspx?text=Race&type=SW&map=CTY

Good job, PPP (and WAA).

[pbrower2a]

Rasmussen's "likely voters" screen suggests an electorate reminiscent of that of 2010, which few can expect to be repeated.

I showed it on my map with the expectation that it wouldn't last long.

 

[krazen1211]

IIRC, PPP is based in NC, so they would likely have the most accurate poll.

I'd say a good aggregate prediction would be Romney 47, Obama 45 for now.

Other pollsters did much better on Amendment 1.

PPP did a good job on Amendment 1.

And:

PPP shows the same:

Q2 The Republican candidates for Senate are Jon Bruning, Sharyn Elander, Deb Fischer, Pat Flynn, Don Stenberg, and Spencer Zimmerman. If the primary was today, who would you vote for?

Deb Fischer .................................................... 37%
Jon Bruning..................................................... 33%
Don Stenberg.................................................. 17%
Pat Flynn......................................................... 2%
Sharyn Elander ............................................... 1%
Spencer Zimmerman ...................................... 1%
Not sure .......................................................... 7%

PPP surveyed 272 likely Republican primary voters on May 14th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-5.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NE_515.pdf

Real results:

41% Fischer
36% Bruning
19% Stenberg
  3% Flynn
  1% Elander
  1% Zimmerman

http://electionresults.sos.ne.gov/resultsSW.aspx?text=Race&type=SW&map=CTY

Good job, PPP (and WAA).

If being off on the margin by 6 points is 'doing a good job', a lot of pollsters do a 'good job'. Some of course do a better job.

It's quite peculiar given the above that WAA is getting 'Junk Poll'ed by the liberals, as WAA did a superior job to PPP in this poll.

[ajb]

IIRC, PPP is based in NC, so they would likely have the most accurate poll.

I'd say a good aggregate prediction would be Romney 47, Obama 45 for now.

Other pollsters did much better on Amendment 1.

PPP did a good job on Amendment 1.

And:

PPP shows the same:

Q2 The Republican candidates for Senate are Jon Bruning, Sharyn Elander, Deb Fischer, Pat Flynn, Don Stenberg, and Spencer Zimmerman. If the primary was today, who would you vote for?

Deb Fischer .................................................... 37%
Jon Bruning..................................................... 33%
Don Stenberg.................................................. 17%
Pat Flynn......................................................... 2%
Sharyn Elander ............................................... 1%
Spencer Zimmerman ...................................... 1%
Not sure .......................................................... 7%

PPP surveyed 272 likely Republican primary voters on May 14th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-5.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NE_515.pdf

Real results:

41% Fischer
36% Bruning
19% Stenberg
  3% Flynn
  1% Elander
  1% Zimmerman

http://electionresults.sos.ne.gov/resultsSW.aspx?text=Race&type=SW&map=CTY

Good job, PPP (and WAA).

If being off on the margin by 6 points is 'doing a good job', a lot of pollsters do a 'good job'. Some of course do a better job.

It's quite peculiar given the above that WAA is getting 'Junk Poll'ed by the liberals, as WAA did a superior job to PPP in this poll.

Biggest difference between the two polls (aside from WAA over-estimating the minor candidates by a cumulative four points) is that WAA published numbers only for those who committed to a candidate (their numbers add up to 100%), while PPP reported 7% undecided. In a fast-moving race like this one, it doesn't seem like a bad idea to report the number of undecideds.

[marvelrobbins]

PPP has Obama by 1 basiclly a tie.RAS Is using the 2010 model.I will take PPP because neith Obama or Romney are up in NC by 8. 

[Badger]

I can't help suspect that part of this lead is due to Obama making his endorsement of legal gay marriage the day after NC strongly voted against it. Even normally swing "No" voters (other than African-Americans) had to have taken that a bit as an F U to their state.

[The Mikado]

I could buy Romney up by 2-4 here, but not 8.