Latest Romney campaign leaks on VP search: they want a "boring white guy"

[milhouse24]

Portman may be a good pick, if he can quickly get some huge national exposure somehow, perhaps through talk shows.  He's good for Ohio, but the rest of the country will think Portman is not ready and just pandering to Ohio.  

Daniels will turn it down because of his wife, but he would also be a strong pick, to help pick up Ohio, and he is fairly credible as a national candidate.  

I really like Thune as a competent guy who appeals to evangelicals, but he is a bit young, and he would likely turn down Romney and wait to run himself in 2016.  

As far as the default "do no harm, no upside or downside" - it will likely be Pawlenty (TPaw).  He's a credible national candidate.  But he won't help much in the South, Virginia, or Southwest.  He might help slightly in Ohio.  It would put more pressure on Romney to be the candidate for every constituency.  For Obama, Biden helped deliver white catholic voters.  Pawlenty will really need to deliver evangelicals if Romney wants to win enough votes.  

[milhouse24]

I'm hoping for a surprise pick.

I think that Senators Burr, Chambliss or Corker would be good picks for Romney.

If Romney wants a surprise, swing for the fences pick, it will likely be Jeb Bush.  He's the only surprise candidate worth the risk of pissing off liberals, but winning enough swing voters. 

[milhouse24]

http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=CBD1171C-FB83-49C0-9DD8-4689F47966B5

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I guess brown skin and/or a uterus are inherently risky and exciting.

Anonymous leaker also names names re: the names at the top of the list (for now):

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Of course, keep in mind, leaks don't happen by accident.  The Romney campaign surely has an agenda in leaking this, so treat it with the appropriate skepticism.

Sometimes leaks seem accidental.  And even if the leak of the names is no accident, the leak of the demographic criteria might be.  Can't imagine the Romney Campaign was happy to see that.

Well, in the context of Obama's week of gay marriage appealing to minorities and potentially upsetting white males and catholics, Romney picking a Bland white guy will be a direct appeal to working class white catholic males who care more about the economy than radical social issues.  It can be Romney indirectly saying he's not going to upend society and he's going to make an appeal to evangelicals who want straight marriage.

[milhouse24]

Honestly, I thought this was the most interesting part of the story:

"New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who is said by insiders to want it the most and also to annoy some aides with his aggressiveness"

I would not have expected Christie to be the most desperate for the vice presidency.  I guess he really really wants national office, and the chances that he runs for prez in 2016 (assuming Obama wins reelection this year) are even higher than I thought.

It could be Christie being his obnoxious/pushy self doing everything he can to help Romney make New Jersey competitive.  He is worried about losing his re-election, so he's planning on leaving NJ soon.  Perhaps he wants to be attorney general or some other cabinet member.

[milhouse24]

Ryan, Daniels or Christie would be my top three choices.

Daniels is probably the strongest pick of those listed.  He rates higher than Portman in my opinion because Daniels will be seen as a stronger leader with more credibility, than the new senator portman.  Portman is too unknown and could be seen as Cheney lite, a white house beurocrat who's not that popular outside of DC. 

If the media and Obama campaigns vow to keep Daniels' wife off limits, which might happen with the Ann romney flap.  Daniels is clearly qualified to be president, but i'm sure liberal groups will sling the mud at Mrs. Daniels once Obama drops in the polls.  It will get very ugly and nasty for Daniels' wife, and that is sad, but the personal attacks might also be seen as sexist and anti-woman, which could bring some female voters into the Romney camp out of disgust. 

[milhouse24]

I'm going to say it will be a Mitt Romney(R-MA)/Richard Burr(R-NC) ticket.

Not a bad idea, but its odd that a good choice like Burr, DeMint, or Thune have been pretty silent in the media.  That's usually not a good sign, because whoever the VP is will want to elevate their national profile in order to get some media validation and public validation.  It would be bad for Romney to pick a complete surprise pick, even if that person were competent, because the media would be pissed off, and would go harder on the VP in order to dig up dirt.  Where as strategic leaks and buildup will help the Romney campaign manage the roll out and allow the media to get some positive/negative stories about the VP out over time.  As we saw with Palin, the negative stories came in a very short time span, which helped cement the public image that she wasn't fit for the office.  Essentially, the press doesn't like surprises and any surprises will create a rush for sensationalistic stories.

[milhouse24]

Pawlenty is the most boring guy, but he has the strangest last name.  It might be too difficult for voters to pronouce.  It might sound too foreign. 

[milhouse24]

Pawlenty is the most boring guy, but he has the strangest last name.  It might be too difficult for voters to pronouce.  It might sound too foreign. 

reality check: our current president's name is "Barack Hussein Obama"... I don't think you can really claim that "a foreign sounding name" is really a negative anymore.

Just because someone has a foreign name doesn't make it more likely voters will vote for him/her.  There was a study that simpler last names, such as two syllabels, actually helps a political candidate win elections.  Many of our presidents have had 2 syllabel names.  It just seems that the american electorate is really dumb for some reason. 

I admit, Barack Hussein would have been unelectable. 

No one in the liberal media talks about his middle name except only to talk about racism.  Otherwise, the liberal media ignores his middle name at all costs. 

Its purely a matter of pronounciation.  Obama is fairly easy to prounounce and spells like you say it.  Of course, even Teddy Kennedy called him Osama from time to time in speeches for some reason but maybe it was the brain cancer. 

[milhouse24]

I'm not sure how "Pawlenty" is  "foreign sounding name".  As a native of the "Real America" of the Midwest, I'd say that the 3-4 syllable German and Polish last names there sound more "American" to me than WASP-y names like Bush or Clinton.

I would classify Germany and Poland as foreign countries, or at least non-english speaking countries.  We haven't had any Italian American presidents either and Catholic Italians are almost 50% of the population in the northeast.  I'm just observing that for whatever reason, Americans can't elect a president with more than 2 syllabels in his last name.  Eisenhower had to defeat the world and the germans to become famous, and he had a german last name! 

If its too difficult to spell, americans get confused.  Palenti may be Italian or Paulenty or Polentti. 

Its probably a Southern Strategy thing, since the South has less immigration, voters only want to vote for the same wasp last names they are used to. 

[milhouse24]

Virtually every American has a last name that can be traced to a foreign country.  OK, if you tweak "foreign" to mean "a country that doesn't speak English", then that's not true.  But certainly in the Midwest, it's absolutely common for people to have last names like Blagojevich, Hoekstra, Kleczka, Pawlenty, Rostenkowski, Sebelius, and Sensenbrenner, and for politicians to get elected with such names.

I don't think the "voter confusion over the candidate's last name" thing is at all an issue.  In fact, I find it utterly ridiculous that someone would be less likely to vote for Romney if his running mate has an unusual last name.  The reason why most recent presidents have had Anglo-Saxon last names is because a disproportionate number of presidents are people who have $ and who got degrees from Ivy League schools several decades ago.  Until recently, that was a demographic that skewed heavily towards people with Anglo-Saxon last names.

Also, of course, there was more suspicion of Catholics and "white ethnics" back in Eisenhower's day.  Nowadays, it's a non-issue.  I mean, about 75% of the likely 2016 presidential candidates are Catholics, which obviously would have been unheard of not long ago.

Just because candidates win in the midwest doesn't mean they can win nationally.  I think the Southern Strategy covers a lot of states and is a powerful voting bloc.  Most of the winning presidents in the past 50 years have held onto the South.  Certainly America is becoming more diverse, but I would say there are advantages to a simple spelling name that is easy to pronouce for casual and disinterested voters.  "Obama" only has five letters and is easy to pronounce and remember.  Reagan, Carter, and Clinton were not rich Wasps.  Political campaigns are mostly marketing experiences.  Pawlenty is a 2 term governor from the midwest and he couldn't win in Iowa, so there is something wrong with his image.  Huckabee is another person who gets criticized for his last name, among other things. 

[milhouse24]

I highly doubt a single southern state (or any state) would flip from Romney to Obama over the last name of Romney's running mate.  It's not as if the voters even need to know the running mates' last names when they vote.  What next?  Gore lost Florida because voters thought "Lieberman" had too many letters?

In any case, even if this sort of thing were an issue, I don't see what's confusing about the name "Pawlenty".  It's an incredibly easy name to remember.  Much moreso than, say, "Schwarzenegger".

I don't know the polling regarding Lieberman in 2000, but he might not have been Waspy enough for southern voters, but other liberal voters may have been attracted to the first jewish vice president, however in most states, jewish people are just 2% of the population.  A catholic vice president like John Kerry would have been more of an asset, at least to suburban main street voters. 
I think part of Quayle's downfall was that he has a name similar to "quail" which is a duck, and people though he was an incompetent buffoon not just because he was stupid but because he had a humorous name. 
I would have expected Gephardt to get more consideration as vice president, but for some reason he was never chosen. 
I fully expect Romney to play it safe and pick Pawlenty - so we'll see if Romney-Pawlenty can win in November.