IN-Global Strategy Group (D): Donnelly tied with Mourdock in internal

[tmthforu94]

No surprise here - Moudock is too far out of mainstream for Indiana.

[tmthforu94]

No surprise here - Moudock is too far out of mainstream for Indiana.

As evidenced by his landslide statewide win two years ago. Oh, that doesn't count? Ok. Explain that statewide win in 2006 then.

We are in the period when bitter Lugar supporters will amp up the hysterics. Come November, this won't be one of the top competitive races.

Oh, and did we mention that this is a Dem internal? Mourdock is clearly leading.

Yeah, keep using the "he's won statewide races before" argument. A Senate race with so much exposure and public scrutiny is clearly different from a State Treasurer race, which received no publicity and ran against a 28 year old (though granted, he became SB mayor). I can guarantee that over 75% of voters didn't even know who the candidates were for it when they went in to vote, and just voted straight ticket.

Mourdock's favorable numbers are not impressive, and I can't imagine them improving too much when voters learn that he opposes the 17th amendment, thinks Social Security and Medicare are unconstitutional, and has vowed to be "bitterly partisan" in Washington D.C. Those aren't hysterics - those are actual statements he has made. Joe Donnelly will come across as more favorable and mainstream to voters here, which is disappointing, because I don't think he'd make a great Senator either.

[tmthforu94]

I'm not saying that the State Treasurer is a widely known position but don't make him out to be some fire-breathing unelectable nutcase. History proves you wrong.

Mourdock is mild mannered. Sure, the "bitterly partisan" stuff doesn't help but he isn't a far right winger and should be able to come across as a reasonable person/non-bomb thrower. That's enough for a win in an obviously Republican leaning state.

I'm not making him out to be an unelectable nutcase. I think there is a chance he could pull this off, simply by constantly trying to tie Donnelly to Obama. But he is not a good candidate - this should be a very easy win for the GOP, and it's not. If I had known this would have happened, looking back, I wish Lugar had backed out and Skillman had ran for this. We'd be fine.

I disagree with your assertion that he isn't a "far right winger", simply due to the fact I've watched his campaign, both for Treasurer and Senate, and have heard him speak several times. On issues, he's very conservative. He just doesn't make quite as many ridiculous statements as other far-right candidates do. I guess we'll just have to see how Indiana reacts to him - thankfully I'll have a frontrow seat of this interesting race unfolding.

[tmthforu94]

agreed the democrat who's running against Pence has problems with name recognition

Name recognition will go up - It probably hurt Democrats that they didn't have competitive primaries, as both Donnelly and Gregg have done almost no campaigning. Gregg is a former Speaker of the House, so he has some name recognition. Like Donnelly, he's a pretty moderate politician, though he won't be able to be tied as well to Obama as Donelly will be.

Pence is a stronger candidate than Mourdock, though. Gun to my head, I'd say Mourdock will win the Senate race (at this moment) by 1-5%, while Pence wins the Governor's race 6-10%.