WI: Romney Tied with Obama 46 - 46

[AmericanNation]

http://law.marquette.edu/poll/

[LiberalJunkie]

http://law.marquette.edu/poll/

Who?

[philly09]

Junk Poll. Marquette U. is where Scott Walker went.  This is the same polling place that had Newt with a 85% favorability rating with women, and Walker with a gigantic lead over his then yet-to-be determined challenger.

[NVGonzalez]

Seems legit.

[Kung Fu Kenny]

Seems legit.

My reaction too.

This is the same pollster Krazen just cited in a poll with Walker up by 6 in the recall vote.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Why are we even wasting time with bogus polls like this?

[5280]

Why are we even wasting time with bogus polls like this?

Why are you getting defensive about a poll you don't like?

[AmericanNation]

The Marquette Law poll is done by Charles Franklin.  He is respected by both sides and he is prestigious enough that Marquette 'stole' him away from UW-Madison.  He used to do the old "Badger Poll."  This is probably the best non-internal polling in the state.  The St. Norbert's poll on the other hand is a joke, they suck. 

As for "Walker went to Marquette" ...I can only laugh.  I'll point out that if Romney went to Berkeley, the faculty wouldn't be pulling for him.   

[Kung Fu Kenny]

Why are we even wasting time with bogus polls like this?

Hate to "waste your time" even further: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/wi/wisconsin_romney_vs_obama-1871.html

Facts suck, huh?

"Facts"

Sample polls are not facts. They are samples.

[Tender Branson]

Edited the poll in the database to 46-44 Obama among RV, like it says in the release.

Likely voters is useless, because it clearly says that their LV screen is for the recall.

[LastVoter]

If this happens... Lawl

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Why are we even wasting time with bogus polls like this?

Because we are desperate and needy for data.

[Tender Branson]

Edited the poll in the database to 46-44 Obama among RV, like it says in the release.

Likely voters is useless, because it clearly says that their LV screen is for the recall.

Yeah, and that's not a moderator with a bias, huh? So are you going to edit every poll using a "likely voter" model, or just those that lean towards results you don't agree with?

No, because a recall LV poll is not a November LV poll. Turnout in the recall will only be 1/2 of that in November, so this recall sample misses many potential voters.

[Napoleon]

Edited the poll in the database to 46-44 Obama among RV, like it says in the release.

Likely voters is useless, because it clearly says that their LV screen is for the recall.

Yeah, and that's not a moderator with a bias, huh? So are you going to edit every poll using a "likely voter" model, or just those that lean towards results you don't agree with?

Chill.

[Kevin]

To settle this disagreement,

PPP also has it ore or less tied in WI also.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-wisconsin-president-romney-vs-obama

[tpfkaw]

To settle this disagreement,

PPP also has it ore or less tied in WI also.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-wisconsin-president-romney-vs-obama

And Rasmussen is the most Obama poll in May...

[Eraserhead]

Edited the poll in the database to 46-44 Obama among RV, like it says in the release.

Likely voters is useless, because it clearly says that their LV screen is for the recall.

Yeah, and that's not a moderator with a bias, huh? So are you going to edit every poll using a "likely voter" model, or just those that lean towards results you don't agree with?

Are you dense or is this an act?

[Andrew1]

What was the likely voter screen on this poll?

Looking at the "Marquette Law School Poll, May Instrument" on their website, they seem to have used a separate screen for general election likely voters (Question Q2) and recall election likely voters (Question Q2b).

However 87% of their sample said they were "Absolutely certain" to vote in the general election, and 85% of their sample said they were "Absolutely certain" to vote in the recall election.

It seems highly improbable that turnout in the recall will be almost the same as for the general.

Have these figures been altered or weighted in some way?

If turnout will be much lower in the recall, using a recall likely voter screen on a general election poll question is obviously misleading.

(I decided to start posting as I was confused about this poll).

[pbrower2a]

I don't trust any poll in Wisconsin right now. It may not be so much methodology as it is the political climate. The Hard Right has been swamping Wisconsin with Orwellian propaganda. Many employers have been putting the squeeze on employees at all levels to support Scott Walker. Nothing that he has done recently shows him having changed his policies.

I suspect that people have been told that if they show any indication of voting against Scott Walker and the American Nightmare will quickly be denied any chance at participation in the American Dream -- that they will be the first to be fired. I suspect that most people know what to say when polled out of fear that the poll may in fact be secret surveillance of employees. The right answer to any poll is "Scott Walker is the most wonderful thing that happened to Wisconsin since the departure of the Ice Age glaciers!" if one wants a job in private industry in Wisconsin.



 

[AmericanNation]

I don't trust any poll in Wisconsin right now. It may not be so much methodology as it is the political climate. The Hard Right has been swamping Wisconsin with Orwellian propaganda. Many employers have been putting the squeeze on employees at all levels to support Scott Walker. Nothing that he has done recently shows him having changed his policies.

I suspect that people have been told that if they show any indication of voting against Scott Walker and the American Nightmare will quickly be denied any chance at participation in the American Dream -- that they will be the first to be fired. I suspect that most people know what to say when polled out of fear that the poll may in fact be secret surveillance of employees. The right answer to any poll is "Scott Walker is the most wonderful thing that happened to Wisconsin since the departure of the Ice Age glaciers!" if one wants a job in private industry in Wisconsin.

Yes it is a vast conspiracy involving over 2 million people in order to manipulate a poll. 

[AmericanNation]

What was the likely voter screen on this poll?

Looking at the "Marquette Law School Poll, May Instrument" on their website, they seem to have used a separate screen for general election likely voters (Question Q2) and recall election likely voters (Question Q2b).

However 87% of their sample said they were "Absolutely certain" to vote in the general election, and 85% of their sample said they were "Absolutely certain" to vote in the recall election.

It seems highly improbable that turnout in the recall will be almost the same as for the general.

Have these figures been altered or weighted in some way?

If turnout will be much lower in the recall, using a recall likely voter screen on a general election poll question is obviously misleading.

(I decided to start posting as I was confused about this poll).

.... So, that being said, what is the justification for removing the likely voter numbers?

Also, the likely voter #'s in Wisconsin are probably better than anywhere else due to the polarized electorate.  So, why remove the best polling available in favor of less relevant information? 

[Eraserhead]

Even casting aside the recount factor, likely voter numbers are meaningless this far out from an election. Just common sense really. If it was up to me we wouldn't enter any "likely voter" polls until September.  

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

No, because a recall LV poll is not a November LV poll. Turnout in the recall will only be 1/2 of that in November, so this recall sample misses many potential voters.

I doubt that is the case. Turnout for the recall will be lower than that in November, sure, but I'd estimate only by 25% at the most.

[Torie]

Wouldn't it be grand if Mittens hits 270 electoral votes after Waukesha County  turns in its vote two days late.

[AmericanNation]

Wouldn't it be grand if Mittens hits 270 electoral votes after Waukesha County  turns in its vote two days late.

The county executive pressured the county clerk to remove herself from election day activities and let her deputy handle it.  Then she was seen posting paper copies of election totals on the wall after the last primary.  People are uncomfortable with that, they apparently don't want her in the building. 

Weird that the Waukesha County clerk messes up twice and it's national news (and the situation is seriously addressed) and the Milwaukee county clerk messes up dozens of times (and is allowed to continue doing so presumably forever without notice).