RI-01/Fleming & Associates (D primary): Cicilline in trouble before November

[Mr.Phips]

Dem primary poll:

David Cicilline - 40%
Anthony Gemma - 36%

Also, "the new poll finds 61% of primary voters give Cicilline a negative job approval rating".

Cicilline is damaged goods. The Dems would find another candidate if they were smart because of Cecilline's baggage. The Republicans have a real shot to take this seat I think.

If Doherty did take this 67% Obama seat, he would very likely easily be beaten by a competent Dem in 2014.  He would be the GOP version of Walt Minnick. 

[Mr.Phips]

Potentially having a Republican in a D+13 district? Pretty sad. What's the record right now? A D+6 district?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cook_Partisan_Voting_Index#By_congressional_district

lol @ Matheson (UT-2, R+15)

Yeah its the Illinois 10th Congressional District that is represented by Robert Dold(R.) That district always voted for Moderate Republicans(John Porter, Mark Kirk and Dold) even though they voted Dem in Presidential Elections. Kirk did have a couple close races too I think. Dold I don't think will win in November because its something like a D+8-9 District now.

Dold is toast.  He only won 51%-49% in the best Republican year since 1894 against a two time loser candidate.  I would bet that he loses by high single digits this time. 

[Mr.Phips]

Potentially having a Republican in a D+13 district? Pretty sad. What's the record right now? A D+6 district?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cook_Partisan_Voting_Index#By_congressional_district

lol @ Matheson (UT-2, R+15)

Yeah its the Illinois 10th Congressional District that is represented by Robert Dold(R.) That district always voted for Moderate Republicans(John Porter, Mark Kirk and Dold) even though they voted Dem in Presidential Elections. Kirk did have a couple close races too I think. Dold I don't think will win in November because its something like a D+8-9 District now.

Dold is toast.  He only won 51%-49% in the best Republican year since 1894 against a two time loser candidate.  I would bet that he loses by high single digits this time. 

Yeah but Seals is/was a tough opponent. Heck, Seals almost beat Kirk once.

Seals only got 47% in two of the best Dem years since the 1970's.  Even Seals would have won the new IL-10 in 2010.