UKIP: Chances of winning Westminster Seats ?

[Polkergeist]

UKIP are not doing too bad in Westminster polls at the moment. They would like to think they can be the UK's third party, but to that they need to win seats. I don't think they would get there on  their current polling of 7-9% of the national vote, but I am open to those with better local knowledge.

Here is a link to some number crunching on the matter.

http://poliquant.com/can-ukip-win-westminster-seats/

Can UKIP win Westminster seats? Can they move still higher in the polls?

[Polkergeist]

Ok, but if the Greens can target one seat and win with far less national support than what UKIP is getting now, why can't UKIP?

[Polkergeist]

In the short to medium term, UKIP cannot usurp the Conservatives as the party of the right in the UK, it can only split the right of centre vote.

I doubt that UKIP can pull the Tories right as it took so much poltiical effort for the Tories to occupy at least come of the centre ground today, they are not going to give it up lightly. Cameron didn't call UKIP "swivel eyed" for nothing.

A Conservative party that chased UKIP votes would find it hard to win 35% nationally.

So I don't think UKIP poses a long term threat to Labour by portending a rightward political spectrum shift as it does not have the pulling power to achieve it.