UKIP: Chances of winning Westminster Seats ?

[tpfkaw]

I personally think they should run Farage against Cameron in Witney, run a full-scale campaign there, and try to get the Labour candidate to withdraw.

Probably still won't win but it'll get media attention (Daily Mail might even endorse it if they're lucky), and more still if they can break 35% or so.

[tpfkaw]

Of course, Labour would never withdraw its candidate for the sake of the UK Independence Party.

If they were smart they would.

[tpfkaw]

Every vote for UKIP is a vote taken from the Tories (or .7 of a vote or so), so Labour should try to get them as much publicity and popularity as possible.  I can't imagine that the uncharismatic, unpopular, unexciting and unintereresting Cameron has that much of a personal vote, and it's possible he's even a slight negative.

[tpfkaw]

the whole of UKIP really is to act as a force for the tory party to go further right

Isn't that *also* good for Labour?  (Of course, most of the issues that UKIP pressures the Tories on were inexplicable "moderation" in the first place, as the "moderate" position is less popular than the "right-wing" position).

[tpfkaw]

That's what I just said...  Even without the presence of UKIP the Tories would win more votes by moving "right" on Europe/immigration/crime.  Of course, the pre-Falklands SDP surge, 1992, Blair, and Cleggmania all seem to suggest that Britons are in search of "centrists," but YMMV.