EU Spring economic forecast for 2012 & 2013

[Tender Branson]

1st column = GDP growth
2nd column = Unemployment rate
3rd column = budget deficit
4th column = Debt as a percentage of GDP

[ingemann]

The Danish relative high estimated budget deficit in 2012 is caused by a reform of the pension system, where the early retirement  foundation has been partly abolished by the former government and a lot of the money will be repayed. Of course if it follow the pattern from the last three years, the government will have overestimated the budget deficit again (it was on procent point lower), and it may still lie inside Maastricht criteria.

[Tender Branson]

The target here is a zero deficit by 2016 and a reduction of debt to 60% of GDP by 2020.

Actually, this EU forecast is slightly different than the Austrian government forecast.

Government says 2.2% deficit in 2013 and 72% debt. EU says 1.9% debt and 74% debt.

Of course some factors have to become favorable again to achieve the goals from above:

* economic growth back to about 2.5-3.0% from 2013 to 2020
* no further bank bailouts/nationalisations because of their Eastern European involvement
* no further payments to countries like Greece
* unemployment must remain low for good tax revenues