Breaking 17May2012: Obama's literary agent's '91 material has him born in Kenya

[WhyteRain]

The article goes out if its way to disavow the "conspiracy theory nonsense".  This is part of Breitbart's vetting Obama series - something the media and McCain campaign did a terrible job of in 2008.  The relevant question is who gave Obama's literary agent the false impression that Obama was born in Kenya?  From where did they get this information?  If it was from Obama himself, why did he want to say he was born in Kenya?

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/05/17/literary_agent_says_1991_booklet_was_a_mistake.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+PoliticalWire+%28Political+Wire%29&pos=rrtxt

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Miriam Goderich claims Obama did not give her the information that resulted in her "mistakenly" placing his birth in Kenya.  OK, but she so far fails to state who did give her the information.  This is an omission that cannot long survive.

Btw, I'm not a Birther.  I note that Birtherism originated among Democrats -- Hillary supporters -- and it never gained the currency among Republicans that, for example, "9/11 Trooferism" gained among Democrats.

[WhyteRain]

Why would you ever trust Breitbart (before and after he died)? Anybody who treats that news source as a serious source of information is knowingly believing false information.

Way to attack the messenger.

[WhyteRain]

Whyterain, no matter what you say, I will never take you seriously. You have Oregon, Minnesota and Maryland going GOP in your 2012 map. If you honestly believe any of those scenarios will occur, you clearly are undeserving of being taken seriously.

Not Maryland.

Back in 2009, I predicted the GOP to win only 50 seats in the 2010 elections.  (I think it's too easy to make predictions after August of the election year.)  The GOP won 63.  If anything, right now I think I may be giving Obama too much credit at 191 electoral votes.  After all, Hoover and Carter won only six states each in their re-election tries.  I'm giving Obama credit for 13.

[WhyteRain]

Back in 2009, I predicted the GOP to win only 50 seats in the 2010 elections.  (I think it's too easy to make predictions after August of the election year.)  The GOP won 63.  If anything, right now I think I may be giving Obama too much credit at 191 electoral votes.  After all, Hoover and Carter won only six states each in their re-election tries.  I'm giving Obama credit for 13.

You don't look at national and individual state polling, do you? You make your maps citing history and gut feeling, I'm guessing? Good lord.

[/quote]

You're correct.  I don't look at polls, at least not before Labor Day.  I base my predictions, yes, on history and gut feeling.

If you like polls, why not look at the history of polls?  Look at the polls from, say, May of some other election years and see how accurate they turned out to be.