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| | |-+  French Legislative Elections 2012: Hashemite's Guide and Predictions
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Author Topic: French Legislative Elections 2012: Hashemite's Guide and Predictions  (Read 38920 times)
A Strange Reflection
Antonio V
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E: -7.87, S: -3.83

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« Reply #225 on: June 17, 2012, 06:56:34 am »
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Thanks. Is there anywhere available online census stats by constituency (or other level, commune, department whatever). It would be particularly interesting to see figures for ethnic minority groups, religious groups etc, but I don;t think the French collate that data

Indeed. There is no such thing as ethnicity stats in France. No idea for religion, but, if you want to have a look by yourself, here is the website of France's statistic agency : http://www.insee.fr/en/
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"In the end, the world we live in is in darkness."
"That's why... we seek the light."

Noir, episode 26
Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #226 on: June 17, 2012, 06:58:33 am »
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Many things uploaded here over the years as well: http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=59924.75
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Hash
Hashemite
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« Reply #227 on: June 17, 2012, 08:43:14 am »

France has numbers for the general "foreign" population and some data on "immigrant population" which is harder to find.

The Ministry of Housing and Territorial Equality has a wonderful statistical atlas about ZUS and other urban areas, which allows you to quickly look at main demographic stats down to the tract level in large urban areas: http://sig.ville.gouv.fr/
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17:40   oakvale   the people are bad and shouldn't be allowed vote whenever possible
17:40   oakvale   The average voter wants to end austerity, bring back hanging and put all immigrants in death
A Strange Reflection
Antonio V
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E: -7.87, S: -3.83

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« Reply #228 on: June 18, 2012, 02:49:01 pm »
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Here's a little map of the "upsets" compared to your predictions :



Right upsets : 25 (rated : 17 tossup, 6 lean, 2 favoured)
Left upsets : 13 (rated : 10 tossup, 3 lean)
Far-right upset : 1 (rated lean)


Taking back your numbers, it gives :

Safe left 220/220 = 100%
Left favoured 44/46 = 96%
Lean left 44/51 = 86%

Tossup - left edge 22/39 =56%

Centre favoured 1/1 = 100%
Lean centre 1/1 = 100%

Tossup - right edge 29/39 = 74%

Lean right 51/54 = 94%
Right favoured 59/59 = 100%
Safe right 65/65 = 100%

Lean EXD 1/1 = 100%
Tossup - EXD edge 1/1 = 100%


Left overall 330/356 = 93% (97% excluding tossups)
Right overall 204/217 = 94% (98% excluding tossups)
Others 4/4 = 100%


Tossup 52/79 = 66%
Lean 97/107 = 91%
Favoured 104/106 = 98%
Safe 285/285 = 100%


Overall 538/577 = 93%.

Congrats ! Smiley
« Last Edit: June 24, 2012, 06:24:47 am by Objectif atteint »Logged


"In the end, the world we live in is in darkness."
"That's why... we seek the light."

Noir, episode 26
A Strange Reflection
Antonio V
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« Reply #229 on: June 19, 2012, 10:36:25 am »
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And, to compare with Fab :



Right upsets : 28 (+3 : right on Loiret-2 and Essonne-4, wrong on Drôme-2, Isère-7, BR-3 and S&M-7)
Left upsets : 15 (+2 : right on Vienne-4, wrong on Sarthe-1, Hérault-6 and FdE-8)
Far-right upset : 2 (+1 : wrong on Vaucluse-3)

Overall success was 92%. Of your 10 "disagreements", Gaël was right for 8 and Fab for 2. Tongue
« Last Edit: June 24, 2012, 06:34:23 am by Objectif atteint »Logged


"In the end, the world we live in is in darkness."
"That's why... we seek the light."

Noir, episode 26
big bad fab
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« Reply #230 on: June 19, 2012, 01:04:07 pm »
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Drôme and Vaucluse are sh***y departements Grin
And Seine-et-Marne too !
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Enjoy the French elections !
Enjoy polling analysis !
Enjoy my tracker !

http://sondages2017.wordpress.com/
Hash
Hashemite
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« Reply #231 on: June 19, 2012, 03:55:08 pm »

FTR, I changed my prediction in Essonne-4 (to a NKM win) on Saturday. But I'm pleased that I did marginally better than Fab. Smiley
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17:40   oakvale   the people are bad and shouldn't be allowed vote whenever possible
17:40   oakvale   The average voter wants to end austerity, bring back hanging and put all immigrants in death
A Strange Reflection
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 46390
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

View Profile
« Reply #232 on: June 19, 2012, 04:15:42 pm »
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FTR, I changed my prediction in Essonne-4 (to a NKM win) on Saturday. But I'm pleased that I did marginally better than Fab. Smiley

Ah, sorry, I was a bit confused about which of the maps you posted was your final one. Tongue Please let me know if I made any other mistake.
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"In the end, the world we live in is in darkness."
"That's why... we seek the light."

Noir, episode 26
big bad fab
filliatre
Moderators
YaBB God
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Posts: 13350
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: 1.42, S: 4.87

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« Reply #233 on: June 20, 2012, 03:13:26 am »
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FTR, I changed my prediction in Essonne-4 (to a NKM win) on Saturday. But I'm pleased that I did marginally better than Fab. Smiley

Go live in Pierrelatte or in Torcy and don't bother me ! Grin Cheesy
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Enjoy the French elections !
Enjoy polling analysis !
Enjoy my tracker !

http://sondages2017.wordpress.com/
A Strange Reflection
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 46390
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

View Profile
« Reply #234 on: June 24, 2012, 01:15:15 pm »
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Just to finish off, I crossed the list of the upsets with that of close races (won by less than 2 points). Don't know if it might be interesting.

Rated as tossup - close (15) :

Wallis-et-Futuna-AL
Corse-du-Sud-1
Bouches-du-Rhône-11
Vaucluse-5
Vosges-2
Loiret-2
Indre-et-Loire-2
Sarthe-5
Seine-Maritime-7
Oise-2

Saône-et-Loire-4
Doubs-2
Loiret-6
Vienne-4
Calvados-5


Rated as tossup - not close (12) :

Corse-du-Sud-2
Drôme-1
Drôme-3
Haute-Loire-2
Yonne-1
Ille-et-Vilaine-6
Seine-et-Marne-9

Mayotte-2
Saône-et-Loire-1
Vendée-2
Vendée-5
Orne-1


Rated as lean/favored - close (7) :

Aveyron-1
Yvelines-7
Val-d'Oise-2
Val-d'Oise-7

Haute-Garonne-3 (favored)
Yonne-2
Gard-2

Rated as lean/favored - not close (5) :

Territoire-de-Belfort-2
Nord-5

Loire-4 (favored)
Maine-et-Loire-6
Manche-3
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"In the end, the world we live in is in darkness."
"That's why... we seek the light."

Noir, episode 26
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