French Legislative Elections 2012: Hashemite's Guide and Predictions

[big bad fab]

I've already said what is interesting, but let's be more precise :
apart from Bouches-du-Rhône,
Oise
Meurthe-et-Moselle
Yonne
Hauts-de-Seine Nope
Essonne
Val d'Oise
Gard
Hérault
Loire
Aisne
Doubs EDIT: well, not so hard to predict
are the first tier I think.
And probably in that order

After, that, if you've got time left:
Seine-et-Marne
Nord
Vaucluse
Val-de-Marne
Moselle
Drôme
Meuse
Pyrénées-Atlantiques
Réunion
Lot-et-Garonne
Haute-Loire
EDIT: Ardennes !
can be interesting too.

Thanks a lot for the work already done.
You should write a book

[big bad fab]

Well, if the "democracy" is reigning even here, what can I do ?

Loire is really, really "fun" BTW.

Glad to see that Lozère is on the left for you, because, tonight I've just changed it on my map (yeah, they'll kill each other those 2 rightist incumbents...)

As for Gard, I predict a duel in the 2nd, with the UMP able to kill this a**h*ole lawyer.
I disagree in the 3rd: a triangulaire will kill the UMP, I think.
But I unfortunately agree with you on the 1st: the right is divided.
OK for the rest.

[big bad fab]

I'll survive

Again, my list of priorities changes !
Hauts-de-Seine has some interesting cases: Santini in the 10th (I think he'll lose !), Devedjian in the 13th (he should prevail); also the 2nd, the 12th and even the 5th (but Balkany will probably win again).

Loire and Ardennes are really weird in my predictions I think: you own thoughts will be very much welcome. See how I need you :



Isère 10th is a constituency to look at, too.

[big bad fab]

That's why I'm an utterly anti-democratic man

Anyway, Val-de-Marne 6th will be very hard fought.

Really, Loire and Ardennes: you don't lose your time, because you'll enjoy almost every constituency.
At least, there is more fun for you.


Hérault... This is where your work is priceless.
I agree on almost everything: I think that in the 6th and 7th, the right may well be in the runoff only against the FN and so will win. In the 4th, Pietrasanta alone can't harm the PS candidate. In the 8th, the PS will win in a triangulaire.
(BTW, for the moment -but that's just a feeling-, I don't find that there are SO many "triangulaires de la mort" for the UMP: after all, Marleix may well have better worked than I thought )

I disagree with you on the 1st, with another "triangulaire fatale" for the UMP (and Roumégas is stronger than the low name-recognition PS candidate), and on the 9th, again a PS win in a triangulaire
(oh, just as I've said that, 3 "bad" triangulaires )

These departments (Gard, Hérault) are really socially and humanly awful, but electorally fascinating.

I'm OK for Haute-Loire.

So, I see you are marching on Loire with all your troops

[big bad fab]

Thanks, Hash. THESE are the good departments

Wasn't Loire fascinating, as often ?

Well, I've hesitated a lot for the 4th, but I think (hope ?) that an evenly divided left (also with a PRG who isn't entirely a nobody) might not be in the runoff or that it might be a classical duel. But, of course, in case of a triangulaire, Cinieri is dead.

In the 3rd, I was tempted to say "gain for the left" but, after all, Rochebloine seems unbeatable since 1997 With the FN out, he'll be able to win.

In the 5th, perhaps I'm weighting too much the local force of the PS mayor of Roanne, but it's still something.

So, you may be right and I've completely mixed up the results. We'll see.

In the Ardennes, I wouldn't say Warsmann is "safe", but he'll probably prevail in the end, as he is well entrenched.
In the 2nd, Vuilque is a much stronger candidate for the left, sure.
I'm relaxed we agree on Ardennes: at least, I won't be wrong on everything


In the end, I'd be interested in your opinion on the "best" department, I mean the one with the most difficult tossups to predict: Loire, Bouches-du-Rhône, Gard, Hérault are high for the moment.

Yonne, Essonne, Vaucluse, Vosges may be high too, after all.

[big bad fab]

If I may, Meurthe-et-Moselle and Moselle are really interesting, especially with your good hindsights on the results of Marleix' epic scissors.

And Vosges are funnier than I initially thought (while Drôme and Pyrenees-Atlantiques aren't so interesting).

The rest of my list is OK
(deeply sorry for all these capricious changes, but my spontaneous guts are a bit modified when I try to scan the real field, as I'm doing myself each evening, with less brio than you

And if I may, too, as you're interested in IdF, Paris, Yvelines and Seine-Saint-Denis are boring as hell in terms of uncertain "swingability" (sure, 1 or 2 interesting duels inside the left in 93, but that's all).

In Hauts-de-Seine and Val-de-Marne, it's just about 2 or 3 seats in each, the rest is obvious (but I acknowledge these 2 or 3 are very, very funny).
So, don't take too time on IdF, except on Val-d'Oise, Essonne and Seine-et-Marne (especially the latter 2, which are really hard).

[big bad fab]

Aisne 4th: Alliot has a real bonus, I think, over Bechtel (local vs. technocrat)
Aisne 5th: a triangulaire resulting in a gain for the left (Krabal), I think.

I've just looked at Rhône: boârf... a bit boring...

Will Val-de-Marne 6th be a big, big surprise ? Fortunately for the right, the left is badly divided. But, well, Hollande did quite well there. That'd be amazing. Poor Vivien

Vaucluse 4th: ouch...!!!
Can't we even have a PS win in a triangulaire with FN and Bompard or even a quadrangulaire (no, I just dream a bit )
Why don't these stupid medias poll this constituency, rather than Bayrou's one or Guéant's one ?!?

I wanted to finish tonight, but I must sleep a bit:


And I won't sleep well, as you've made me very doubtful about Loire 4th and 5th

[big bad fab]

Thank you for 54 and 57
They are better than Oise, which will be a very important swinging departement, like Somme or... Meuse maybe, but which isn't so "fun" to predict, as I feel every race is quite clear (even the 7th).

Corse-du-Sud: well, I have no clue and I obviously agree with you. In the 2nd, I especially don't know who will be on top of the left in the 1st round and will fight the UMP in the runoff. That may change the final result a lot.

[big bad fab]

Sorry, I'm almost trolling, but, trying to be more focused, here is an updated list of interest if you want to have some fun in "working on them":

- Essonne, Val d'Oise, Seine-et-Marne in IdF

- Yonne, Vaucluse, Vosges, Lot-et-Garonne, Nord, Français à l'étranger (well, there may be huge surprises here, I think) otherwise (with Cher and Meuse as usual suspects)

[big bad fab]

Glad to see that you are in the fog on 4th and 5th, like me.
I think Morano will lose, as Toul is important and as she seems to tire even her own voters.

(like for Loire, I'm afraid you'll have better predictions than me on Moselle
but the 9th of June isn't tomorrow, so I can change until then... )


I've done the rest of IdF.
Clearly, if you want to have priorities, Seine-et-Marne is the finest one, as constituencies have changed a lot.
(unfortuantely, Copé should win )
Then, Val d'Oise, as there are divisions on the left.
Then, closely behind, Essonne.
Then Hauts-de-Seine and Val-de-Marne on a par.

The PS may reach its majority thanks to gains in IdF, really.



On Nord, your analysis will be highly welcome, especially for the 5th (Huyghe), the 7th, the 10th (yeah... Vanneste), the 14th, the 15th, the 18th and, of course, the 21st (Borloo).
I'm lost with all these new boundaries !

On the "Français de l'étranger", it could be really weird too.


Haven't made my totals (I need to sleep), but there is NO greenie group in the Assembly from this map
The PRG, with some "DVG" may be able to have one.
The FG will reach the 20.
The NC and the Parti Radical are too low, except if they gather all their deputies...

EDIT: it's something like a switched 2007.
The PS will have a majority alone if my predictions are right and if we include the "dissidents". Or at least PS+DVG+PRG.
Well done, Franz-im-Glück and Lucky John-Mark

[big bad fab]

Moselle 9th: I think the PS candidate is quite strong, with his city behind him and against a weak UMP candidate. And there is a risk of a triangulaire.

Moselle 6th: I agree with you, it's a real tossup; I've just made up my mind and opted for a repetition of the 1997 scenario.

As for Filippetti (yeah, 2 "p" for your miss ), indeed, she isn't in a weak position at all. It's not a shoo-in but she is far more favoured than Carlotti, or even Le Foll (though the latter will probably become the new "favourite son" very easily... a bit like Hollande in Corrèze after so many years of pompidolo-chiraquism...).

Yonne: haven't I said this is a difficult department to predict ?

I look forward to reading from you on Nord.
Bon courage ! Many constituencies and some tough ones...

[big bad fab]

Well, I'm tired whereas I haven't written any great stuff like Hash
And I'm completely lost in Réunion (I HATE this department and its silly politics !!!) but also among French people abroad, as the turnout was so low and so many surprises can occur (I think many "real" French abroad, DVD, will prevail).


So, it gives me:

PS: 268
PRG-DVG: 41
(sub-total: 309)
EE-LV: 10
(sub-total: 319)
FG: 20
independentists or left regionalists: 3

MoDem: 1
extreme-right: 1

UMP: 189
NC-radicals-DVD: 44
(sub-total: 233)

In other words:
the PS and its "dissidents" will have a mjority on their own
no Green group
a possible PRG-DVG group
a FG group
no FN MP (just Bompard in Vaucluse who isn't a member of the FN)
one MoDem left (Jean Lassalle)
a victory for the left almost as big as the right victory in 2007.

Now, I'm sure to be wrong again
But it's the game !

[big bad fab]

A bigger and more readable métropole.

Of course, until the 9th of June, I keep the right to update my predictions (especially for overseas territories and for French abroad !)

[big bad fab]

But they won't publish results before the 10th, before the rest of France, will they ?
Are we so Americanized, now ?

EDIT: well, I wasn't aware of this. You're right, it's the same for Polynesia.
So, on Monday, we'll have weird results abroad (and, unfortunately, I think, bad for the right) which will influence the medias in France, whereas the turnout will be low ?!?
Bah...
In a way, you aren't lucky to have Lefebvre and some Balkany in your constituency, but you have a very powerful vote, which will count far more than mine, in a gerrymandered utterly-leftist and uninteresting constituency !


Take a look at IFOP site: there are 2 polls on Corse-du-Sud 1 (Renucci beaten !!!) and Haute-Corse 2 (no surprise for Giacobbi). Absolutely no hope for nationalists, of course.

And there is a poll for Pyrénées-Orientales 4, don't know why... Stupid medias... While Pyr.-Or. 1 and 2 are far more interesting

And there is a poll for Charente-Maritime 1 BUT only for the 1st round !
Royal 33 / Falorni 26 / young UMP sacrificial lamb 19,5 / FN 9 / EE-LV 4 / FG 3 / MoDem 3 / Rad. 2,5
Now, there could have been a scenario nobody has really anticipated:
we are in Charente-Maritime, aka as abstention land in a way; turnout is lower than 64% and the UMP doesn't make it to the 2nd round... who wins ?
Sure, that's not likely, because the tense race around Royal will boost the turnout, but still... that would be fun to see Royal lose because the rightist voters pick a socialist local apaaratchik !
(though a rational rightist voter should vote for Royal, hoping she'll become a second internal opposition, with Aubry, and to piss off "la Présidente", our real head of state, Mrs. Trierweiler )

Sorry, I didn't want to open a debate here (please post in the other thread if you want to discuss about Royal, guys).
But these local polls are of course of some interest in the predictions.
Even though we must take them with tons of salt, as the sample isn't hugely reliable (600 or 500 in Corsica, but, what is more, hastily selected and probably in an artificial way).

[big bad fab]

And there is a poll for Pyrénées-Orientales 4, don't know why... Stupid medias... While Pyr.-Or. 1 and 2 are far more interesting

They releashed P-O 3 yesterday. Apparently, P-O 1 and 2 are coming in the next days.
They build suspense, they publish the least interesting districts first...

We also have Haute-Corse 1: a big surprise (but maybe not for you, Hash ) as the latest Zuccarelli seems to be threatened.


I haven't read Nord yet, Hash, but, already, big thanks and acknowledgement of your work.
I've just read and put some colours on a map, and it already took me a lot of time. So, I can imagine...

[big bad fab]

Vaucluse seems like a fine one to do next... we're running out of really interesting places.

I'm really curious about how the results turn up in my constituency and in the other constituencies. With the internet voting on top of the uncertainty, novelty and low turnout dynamics; this is all quite unpredictable. Fab's guesses seem like a pretty good starting point. The PS will easily win in the African constituency, the German one and probably the British one. I don't want to be one of the idiots who gets hyped up about a boring contest only because it's "at home", but my constituency is, afaik, the most open-ended race and a great pure tossup. You have a right-wing lean to this constituency, but the right has 600 candidates and a beyond-awful official UMP candidate; the PS has a local and competent candidate. Judging from the emails which have been flooding in, Fredo must really be sh**tting his pants right now. His campaign seems to be running on the fact that he served in parliament before, that he's endorsed by a bunch of UMP hacks or that he's the "legitimate" candidate of the right. He's taken the route every candidate in his situation usually takes, the "I will speak the truth"/"from the bottom of my earth" bullsh**t. On the other hand, while lil Balkany seems eerily quiet, JJSS' son is really hyped up and seems to believe he has a lot of momentum (he got some independent candidate to drop out and endorse him). I think Fredo could conceivably be knocked out by either lil Balkany or JJSS' son by the first round, which would be so epic and awesome. JJSS could probably win in the runoff, but I have my doubts about Balkany and certainly Fredo's abilities to win in the runoff. The right-wing dissidents are basically all saying that the PS would win if Fredo was her opponent and that only them can unite the "right and centre".

On my side, I hope my candidate wins...


...over 1-2% of the vote that is. She has no campaign, but that's how I like it. Having an email inbox which is filled with "personalized" messages from right-wing candidates is quite annoying. The kooky Gaullist nutjob is particularly big on trolling my inbox.

Is Treuille a "good" candidate ?
I don't know him at all and know absolutely nothing about his campaign, I was just wondering. Trying to know how I could have voted on the right, if I were a French abroad in North America...


If you have some courage left, well, Vosges or Cher or even Meuse could be of some interest for you, I think. In the small ones.
If you want to make just one other IdF department, Essonne is the best.

These are just ideas and friendly advices for you, not a demand.
All the more that I haven't read your writings on Nord (I want to have some time when I'm relaxed and quiet; these days, I'm overbooked and have some big familial problems to try to settle - not my close family, of course).

Otherwise, selected constituencies (excluding the 4 departments citec above):
Val-de-Marne 6th
Hauts-de-Seine 10th
Hauts-de-Seine 12th
Yvelines 12th
Isère 10th (a must for you, I think, even if you don't write anything)
Aveyron 3rd
Ardèche 3rd
Jura 3rd
Côte d'Or 2nd
Gironde 8th
Gironde 10th
Val-de-Marne 8th
Hauts-de-Seine 2nd
Hauts-de-Seine 13th
and if you like uncertainty inside the left: Aude 2nd, Haute-Garonne 3rd, Haute-Garonne 9th, Rhône 1st, this last one being a real puzzle for me)

[big bad fab]

Thanks for Vaucluse and 77. Of course, I'm a bit daring with Bompard's win, Jégo's defeat and even Albarello's and Geoffroy's defeats.
But Seine-et-Marne is pinker and pinker (see the cantonales) and the FN is less strong, but strong enough in exactly the constituencies where it can hurt the right (outer suburbs or rural areas).
And as Vaucluse 4th is indeed a pure tossup (or a pure mess), it could be funny... With more turnout, a quadrangulaire could have well occurred here !
I like your comments on Vaucluse 3rd, with the "real" Marion (a real Le Pen or a real FN woman, BTW... loyal to old traditions of the 70s-80s... )

[big bad fab]

Isère 10th (a must for you, I think, even if you don't write anything)

I was wondering why you say that. It is indeed an interesting constituency in a pretty interesting (but crappy) part of the world, but why is it "a must" for me?

Oh, nothing really special: just another Marleix opus, but with a real uncertainty, with not-so-good candidates from the UMP and the left, a threatening FN, etc.
My phrase was probably a bit excessive.


So, we agree on Hauts-de-Seine, Aveyron and Lot-et-Garonne !? Amazing ! It gives me some hope.
Sure, on some others, like Drôme, it's not the case. But, of course, I'd be happier if you're eventually right

[big bad fab]

I also have 16 pure tossups in my predictions, where I'm not ready to make a call yet. A few are more UMP vs. FN tossups (like Haute-Marne) but the left will probably win a few of those. In the end, I slant a bit more to the right than Fab, but it's pretty close.

Yeah, we are quite close.
That's probably why I'll be wrong again

[big bad fab]

Yeah, I agree, Devedjian can make it. The left isn't fantastic in his constituency and his independent mind can save him.

As for Balkany, I'd say it'd be narrow too IF the PS candidate wasn't Catoire: he is too old and it's a bit as a football match between Levallois and Clichy: even if you don't like the team of your city, you support it in the end... At this game, Levallois will back Balkany enough for him to win.

And we agree completely on the 10th and 12th.
Santini will fall, due to the fact he is a dinosaur now and that bobos will back Schmid heartily.

[big bad fab]

BREAKING NEWS !

The FN candidate in Morano's constituency is dead.
The new candidate is his former deputy/substitute.

Don't know if and how it will affect the race.
Maybe Morano may benefit from the lil' mess it might entail.
On the other hand, she has some legal suits pending for diffamation...

Predictions altered ?

[big bad fab]

This evening, I'll publish the latest (and big) series of polls on my blog and, honestly, it's pretty good for the PS. After all, my predictions may well be right globally speaking

[big bad fab]

This evening/night, I'll publish the latest (and big) series of polls on my blog.

Again...

[big bad fab]

This evening/night, I'll publish the latest (and big) series of polls on my blog.

Again...

Maybe tomorrow
I've got so many other things to write this night (always my personal problems )

[big bad fab]

Actually, the "t" in Bohbot isn't muted

He's some of the former loyal troops of Dominati, a former pro-Algérie française piece of crap who headed the second Corsican clan, after the Tiberi, when the right was dying, in 1995-2001...
Dominati was a symbol if these Giscardians coming from the far-right and deep anti-gaullist.