French Legislative Elections 2012: Hashemite's Guide and Predictions

[big bad fab]

This evening/night, I'll publish the latest (and big) series of polls on my blog.

Again...

Maybe tomorrow
I've got so many other things to write this night (always my personal problems )

There, I've posted on my blog all the latest polls and there are MANY of them !
No big surprise, though Pyrénées-Orientales 1st and Alpes-Maritimes 2nd (Argh) may be interesting.
Meirieu is ahead of Braillard in Lyons

[big bad fab]

LOL, where did you find all these guys ?

You can find more of them here: http://lolgislatives2012.tumblr.com/
LOLgislatives, justement...

[big bad fab]

I love how the last remaining Royalists in France are a bunch of lefties. How ironic.

"équitable", "bien commun", "justice", "écologie humaine": these aren't leftist concepts but old catholic ones...
The society, under the left laïcism, has drifted from equity to equality, from "common good" to "solidarity", from "environmentalism" to "ecologism", from "fairness" to "affirmative action", but the basics were there.
And this young person sums this up quite well !
For some months -years ?- now, since Sarkozy became really a liability for the right (2009-2010), I've asked myself if I shouldn't be a royalist, after all

Sorry, don't use this post already outside the subject to make this thread drift even more


To stay focused: an IFOP poll on Gard 2nd: PS 29.5 / UMP 29.5 / FN 29.5 (yeah, this piece of crap of Gilbert Collard; even Gollnisch is more respectable) in the 1st round.

PS 37 / FN 32 / UMP 31 in the 2nd round

Sh***ty FN

[big bad fab]

Thank you, Gaël, for your analysis on Nord
I've read it, at last...

[big bad fab]

Slightly revised...
But with one major change: Mélenchon will be beaten by the PS candidate in the first round !
And, eventually, I've tilted towards Jacky Hénin in Calais and I've unfortunately dropped the idea that Douillet will lose in Yvelines

I've published on my blog the last national and local polls (Pas-de-Calais 11th and Gard 2nd, among others).

Hope we'll have first results not too late on Sunday

[big bad fab]

Last last polls and seats projections on my blog (yes, there are 2 polls I've just discovered today )
Plus some graphs for Antonio

Tomorrow, I don't know Hash, because I'm exhausted... Maybe I'll have the courage to go to bed early... I may... I might...

[big bad fab]

So for those who are interested, I won't be liveblogging because it takes lots of effort, but I was planning to do some informal chat in Mibbit on some #legislatives2012 room. I hope at least Antonio and Fab can join me on there for some relaxed fun

J'y serai !

I'll probably join discussions by 19h30, once Italy-Spain is over. Since we're both opposed to spoilers, I assume the important things begin at 20 ?

The important things begin far later, in fact, and on the Internet. 577 elections, you know
Medias will keep repeating some useless "ballottages" without giving you real results, or keep repeating that Emmanuelli or someone is reelected in the first round (what a surprise), or keep repeating their after-vote polls that won't give us any clue for the 2nd round.

[big bad fab]

Drôme and Vaucluse are sh***y departements
And Seine-et-Marne too !

[big bad fab]

FTR, I changed my prediction in Essonne-4 (to a NKM win) on Saturday. But I'm pleased that I did marginally better than Fab.

Go live in Pierrelatte or in Torcy and don't bother me !