French Legislative Elections 2012: Hashemite's Guide and Predictions (user search)
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  French Legislative Elections 2012: Hashemite's Guide and Predictions (search mode)
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Author Topic: French Legislative Elections 2012: Hashemite's Guide and Predictions  (Read 51861 times)
big bad fab
filliatre
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« on: May 19, 2012, 02:04:49 PM »

Great !!!
I envy you to have the time and the courage to do it...
Thanks a lot !

In Côtes d'Armor, I think Le Fur can make it, as he is very well entrenched.

In Morbihan, the PS has been stupid to let the 4th to the Greens: I think the right will prevail.
But the right will loose the 6th and probably the 3rd.

In Finistère, I agree of course, but not on the 5th: Le Guen is able to campaign well.

I look forward to reading Ille-et-Vilaine: no pure tossup, Hash, eh ? It would be too easy Wink
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big bad fab
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« Reply #1 on: May 19, 2012, 02:54:01 PM »

the canton of Saint-Méen-le-Grand (which includes a commune with a great name...) which is more rural
Huh It's Saint-Onen-la-Chapelle, not Saint-Onan.
Oh wait, that's not what you meant...

Gaël is a small commune which has fought against a lbig litter depository for a long time now Grin
Close to the Brocéliande forest !
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big bad fab
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« Reply #2 on: May 19, 2012, 02:58:25 PM »

Ille-et-Vilaine, 7th: I agree with you, as the left is even worse than the right here Tongue

Ille-et-Vilaine, 6th: well the right is indeed favoured, but Feuvrier is a very good candidate. Too bad he has this stupidity again of a Green candidate that no one knows: if the left isn't able to win, well, really, they are STUPIDLY STUPID, because Benoît isn't very well entrenched and the fact that many centrists are allied to the right isn't very well seen. So, if the Grren is crushed in the 1st round, Feuvrier will win in the 2nd.

I was in the old 6th and now I'm in the 2nd: imagine how sad I am currently Sad
My vote MIGHT have been decisive this year Tongue Sad
After all, I hate Marleix too, you know, Hash Wink
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big bad fab
filliatre
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« Reply #3 on: May 21, 2012, 01:36:43 AM »

Sorry, but I'm a man of order Grin
Please first finish Pays-de-la-Loire. Then, you can err as you want around the map Wink For example in Normandies and Picardie: some constituencies are interesting.

Vendée: I agree with all your predictions.

Maine-et-Loire: OK on everything, but the 1st may tilt to the left I'm afraid. Bachelot isn't so strong any longer there and there can be an Ayrault and "moderate team" effect in the North-West, especially around cities.

Loire-Atlantique: I agree with everything. The 10th will be won by the left, that's my guess: it's gaining ground every day...
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big bad fab
filliatre
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« Reply #4 on: May 21, 2012, 09:38:47 AM »

Well, the most important thing is that you finish this tour of France Wink
And as your comments on every constituency will make me happy... do as you wish Smiley
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big bad fab
filliatre
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« Reply #5 on: May 22, 2012, 02:01:22 AM »

This thread is now our daily event, our daily much-awaited reading Smiley
Thanks a lot, Hash, sincerely.
I was too lazy to look for all the candidates in each constituency and you make most of the work: yeah !



I really think Orne will be wonderful to follow. My guts say that the 1st will be won by the left. The right is SO divided in Orne... Lambert himself has put a little mess, like Bassot and others in the recent past. In the 3rd, Caffarelli seems to be more efficient in his campaign and "UMP" isn't really a "plus" in this campaign, I think.

Sarthe: well, I agree with Hash. Chauveau will kill the Green and the right in the 3rd. And Le Foll will prevail: there is a big trend towards the PS here and I think that we may be in another case of switching legitimacy: people were happy to have Fillon, they will be fond of Le Foll... having a ministry in France's rural areas is still something for many people...

Mayenne: no big surprise here. In the 2nd, I don't know, really, though, of course, it will be one of the 2 strong DVD, not the UMP.

Oh, and back to Morbihan, I really think the right will keep the 4th, but with Bléher, not with Guéant Jr. of course (he is so bad... Roll Eyes)

If Hash finishes all his predictions, I'll do also a map of mine (just with UMP, PS, DVD, DVG, FG and EE-LV), which will be as wrong as usual, but it's just for the pleasure of having fun, you know what it is Wink

Thanks again, Gaël, nous te sommes reconnaissant de nous distraire, au meilleur sens du mot Wink
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big bad fab
filliatre
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« Reply #6 on: May 22, 2012, 05:13:55 PM »

With the new redistricting, Manche is as boring as Orne and Calvados are interesting.

Well, in Calvados, it will be very suspenseful.
In the 2nd, I completely agree with you: Thomas is a very strong opponent though the result isn't in doubt. But maybe we'll be surprised and Thomas' anomaly will end this year. Thomas is abit like Jean-Christophe Lagarde in Drancy, in a way Tongue, though, sociologically, it's not the same population.
In the 3rd, Sainte-Thérèse won't make a miracle: your fine analysis of this constituency is damn right: another switch to the left in sight.
In the 5th, I can't believe a second the left could win: it's Bayeux after all... But in 1997, how was it possible ? So, a big, big surprise may occur again, I agree. What makes me more comfortable is that Gomont is a far better candidate for the right than the ageing d'Harcourt back in 97. Plus another constituency stupidly given to the Greens Tongue

Thanks again for these very fine comments.
In the 6th, I would have said: "obvious gain for the left", but Tourret isn't the best candidate, I think; he is a bit old now. Nevertheless, the trend is deep towards the left.
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big bad fab
filliatre
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« Reply #7 on: May 23, 2012, 03:28:33 AM »

Eure has a good suspense in the 2nd: I think Destans, who is highly "visible", will be able to win in the end, because he is also competitive in rural areas. This constituency is reall a small world by itself.

Otherwise, I agree.
The 5th (great comments, Hash Grin) might have been a duel UMP-FN, but Carl Lang (indeed born in Vernon, but who had a long electoral past in Lille and Nord) may prevent it from occurring (though he'll probably grasp only 2 or 3%). We'll see.
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big bad fab
filliatre
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« Reply #8 on: May 24, 2012, 01:49:20 AM »

If I want to do all 577 seats, I will need to do shorther and more concise profiles, thus cutting short discussion of regional voting patterns in these seats; and keeping to big trends and the 2012 races.

I recommend this: don't shorten your profiles, just do as much as you like. Don't feel that you have to do all 577. I would much rather read detailed profiles on those seats which you think to be most interesting. You're doing us a wonderful favor by writing these - but it should also be enjoyable and interesting for you. Smiley

I don't agree on one point Wink : it would be a pity not to do all the 577 !

But, of course, you may be (far) shorter on safe or near-safe seats and on constituencies where sociology and boundaries haven't evolved a lot.
Let's concentrate on possible triangulaires, on new constituencies, on areas where demographic and sociological trends ahev shifted or fastened in the recent years.
I guess it's the same conclusion as homely: they are the constituencies that are more interesting for you to write on.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #9 on: May 24, 2012, 08:59:30 AM »

http://www.elections-legislatives.fr/index.asp

At last, all the candidates are available on this fine interactive map.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #10 on: May 24, 2012, 05:34:48 PM »

I completely agree with you on Charente-Maritime (will Royal prevail ? well, now that Mélenchon, Guaino and others have paved the way in far worse manners, her own "parachutage" may be safer than I thought initially) and Seine-Maritime (even the 9th is lost for the right here, for sure... I just hope the 7th will be OK for the UMP, but Edouard Philippe has a personal bonus).

As for Eure-et-Loir, I think Gorges qill be beaten in the 1st. The national mood isn't good for the right and it's always very short here, so... I even expect the 3rd won't have a triangular, because that would mean another loss for the UMP. OMG...

Charente is boredom country...
Deux-Sèvres, well... is boredom country too... when you think about the results of the right here in the 1970s... argh...

In Vienne, it's possible for the left to gain all the four constituencies. But, sure, in the 4th, divisions are high inside the left. I think the Green candidate may prevail, but will she have enough support from her own allies in the second round ? Maybe some socialists will vote for moderate Abelin in the 2nd round... And with a big abstention, why not a second round Abelin-FN ?
It's a fascinating race. I agree with you in the end: slightly lean Abelin.



May I suggest that Indre-et-Loire and all the Picardie are interesting ?
But, of course, Limousin would be quicker to do Wink

One comment on my blog compares you to a mad nerd and to a God Grin
If you don't do the 577 after that... Cheesy
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big bad fab
filliatre
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« Reply #11 on: May 24, 2012, 05:40:17 PM »

Oh, and I change my prediction for Côtes-d'Armor, 3rd: I think the PS will prevail.
But I keep Le Guen winner in Finistère (I just can't believe he too will lose... no more rational than that in a way Tongue)
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big bad fab
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« Reply #12 on: May 24, 2012, 07:41:06 PM »

Question: Could a Ayrault effect happen in the Loire-Atlantique legislative races, or that kind of things isn't happening on that side of the Atlantic?

Nope. Because people don't vote for him directly.
The constituencies that will predictably be won by the right will be won anyway.
But, in the constituency on which I disagree with Hash, well, why not ? Just to make me right, for once Grin
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big bad fab
filliatre
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« Reply #13 on: May 25, 2012, 02:23:00 AM »

Pfffuuuu... I was a bit afraid you might have ended with a damn stupid Pirate vote ! Tongue Wink
Well, PRG has always been a classy vote.
As a born again Catholic, of course, I won't have the opportunity to vote for the PRG, ever (except if it's Baylet vs Le Pen in 2017 Tongue). But, well, for me, it's all nostalgia of Fabre, Crépeau, Abadie, Schwartzenberg, Doubin, Charles, Hory, Collin, Alfonsi(s), Huwart, Zuccarelli(s), Baylet,...



Glad to see that you've been able to talk mostly about Jean Royer Cheesy

In the 2nd, well, I hope Greff will see the FG candidate beat the "PS-diss." and the Green ones. But I'd give her a slight advantage, too.
In the 3rd and the 4th, it's over for the UMP: Baumel is a strong PS candidate and he has the right profile for this constituency; Touraine will benefit from her new media visibility.
I agree also on the 5th: Roiron is out of date now.

Overall, Indre-et-Loire will be a very pleasing department to follow.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #14 on: May 25, 2012, 09:21:04 AM »

Smiley

BTW, I love your typos, Hash:
- a Canadian one with Châtellrault, without the "e" after the double "l",
- but, far better, Villiers-Bocage is amazing... Villers-Bocage is not the fatherland of Villiers, but, indeed, the latter is so stuck to the bocage Grin



Apart from Picardie, if you are fed up only to follow a geographical continuity, Ile-de-France and big departments (Pas-de-Calais, Nord, Rhône, Loire and especially Bouches-du-Rhône) will of course provide some interesting situations. But I think Lorraine and Languedoc will be thrilling in some constituencies (Yonne, Doubs and some foreign constituencies too).
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big bad fab
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« Reply #15 on: May 26, 2012, 05:46:47 AM »

As for candidates, they declare what they want when they put their candidacy in the Prefecture.

Neither the Assemblée's site, nor politiquemania has what is interesting for us: is a DVG a PS-dissident or a real DVG ?
You have to know the local situation or to search for yourself Grin



In Somme, I mostly agree with you, Hash.
In the 4th and 5th, the PS candidates are very strong locally and, with or even without traingulaires, they'll win in national pink wave.
In the 3rd, a likely triangulaire will erase the small chances remaining for the UMP.
In the 1st, the communist tradition is deep and I think the FG candidate will be in front of the PS one.
In the 2nd, I really fear a EE-LV win, even if their candidate is weak (and, yes, the only noticeable DVG candidate is a MRC which is president of the Office de Tourisme: no big deal, I think). Just for that, Jardé may win with a 50.2 score Tongue

Somme will be a "wonderful" department, because we must remember that there was NO trinagulaire in 1997. This year, we may have at least 3 !
And there may be a net gain of +3 for the left here, if not +4... Sad
Oise and Aisne will be fine, too, electorally speaking.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #16 on: May 26, 2012, 06:02:46 AM »

Pas-de-Calais, part I: you are right on everything. Pretty sure the FG won't make it against the PS anywhere.

Just for fun, my own predictions so far (hope Antonio will update Hash's own map):


I hope Hash will forgive me to have put "rég. & ind." at the bottom of this list, just under the FN Tongue
Should correct this next time.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #17 on: May 26, 2012, 10:54:42 AM »

http://www.lexpress.fr/actualite/politique/legislatives-pour-les-francais-de-l-etranger-ca-flingue-au-far-west_1118844.html#xtor=AL-447

They talk about your "lands", Hash Wink
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big bad fab
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« Reply #18 on: May 26, 2012, 11:12:02 AM »

Why not use red for PS and blue for UMP?

Hangover from the era when the PCF was a major party. Personally I think a rosy red for the PS and maroon for the Commies works better.

It's almost as heretic as criticizing Dave Leip's colours Wink
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big bad fab
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« Reply #19 on: May 26, 2012, 01:19:46 PM »

Bouches-du-Rhône would be great: Boyer, Muselier are threatened; will Carlotti make it ? Great duels, possible triangulaires. Real suspense here !

Yonne and Doubs too.
Oise and Meurthe-et-Moselle also.
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big bad fab
filliatre
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« Reply #20 on: May 27, 2012, 05:27:20 PM »
« Edited: May 27, 2012, 07:55:52 PM by big bad fab »

I've already said what is interesting, but let's be more precise Smiley :
apart from Bouches-du-Rhône,
Oise
Meurthe-et-Moselle
Yonne
Hauts-de-Seine
Essonne
Val d'Oise
Gard
Hérault
Loire
Aisne
Doubs
are the first tier I think.
And probably in that order Tongue

After, that, if you've got time left:
Seine-et-Marne
Nord
Vaucluse
Val-de-Marne
Moselle
Drôme
Meuse
Pyrénées-Atlantiques
Réunion
Lot-et-Garonne
Haute-Loire
can be interesting too.

Thanks a lot for the work already done.
You should write a book Smiley
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big bad fab
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« Reply #21 on: May 27, 2012, 06:23:06 PM »

Pas-de-Calais: I agree with you for everything, especially on the 6th and the 12th, the PS-diss. will prevail in eahc case.
In the 7th, the PS will win: Hénin is a bit out-of-date now.
In the 11th, well, unfortunately, Mélenchon will probably prevail over the PS candidate Sad and so end winning this stuff.

Bouches-du-Rhône: The 1st and the 5th are probably the GREATEST fights this year... So entertaining !
I think Boyer will win in the 1st by a small margin in a triangulaire (I may be the only man in France to make these subtle differences, but I think Boyer is more on the left of the Droite Populaire Tongue; she's not exactly FN-lite; she's more an opportunist that I've envisioned some time ago to be Gaudin's heir (and not Muselier). But it's more a hope than a real prediction, because Assante will hurt her very much.... Sad
In the 5th, I predict a PS win over Muselier: Gaudin will kill him without saying it Tongue and Muselier is'nt a very good campaigner. Marseilles' inhabitants will like to have a minister, because they are frustrated for so long...
As for the 3rd, we may have an interesting scenario: a triangulaire with the UMP in the 3rd position and so hurting the FN. Otherwise, it could have been a winnable seat for the FN.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #22 on: May 27, 2012, 08:22:58 PM »

Hope you're right with Hénin: that would be fun Wink

If you don't mind and even if it's pretty useless, as I don't put any explicit reason, here is my updated map:


With territorial continuity Tongue

It makes me think that some constituencies are of interest in some uninteresting departements:
Aveyron 3rd
Ardèche 3rd
Jura 3rd
Côte d'Or 2nd
Gironde 8th and 10th
Vosges 2nd and 4th (unfortunately, I think Lang will be lected Sad)
Cher 1st (of course !)
and Lozère, after all.... Tongue

Aude 2nd and Haute-Garonne 3rd and 9th are only interesting because we don't know which leftist will win.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #23 on: May 28, 2012, 10:08:16 AM »

Sorry to insist, but why don't you just cut your comments ?!?

Besides being notoriously bad at being concise, there are just way too many interesting things to say about each seat that long comments end up being useful for those who want to understand what's going on. I might do more if I just told you who the candidates were and gave a raw prediction, but that would be incomplete, boring, uninformative and as useless as the stupidities posted by journalists. If people actually want to understand the details of this election, then they ought to understand the 'local elections' going on in each constituency. If you want superficial numbers and colourful maps, look up the candidacies yourself and make a map based on your hunches and past results.

That's your choice. I have to admit I was primarily looking for a guide of the seats to watch on election day. The detailed geographical and sociological description of each constituency is a great bonus, but I could live without it (especially since you still do it even after the election is over, while predictions are useful before). I have to disagree that a more succint comment accompained by your prediction would be "uninteresting". But anyways, it's your choice since you are the one working at this.

Hash is right. "Unfortunately" right, we can say. It's because the deadline to put your candidacy in the prefecture is so late that, to be insightful and serious, as Hash wants very rightly to do (because it's histrademark and it's his added value: otherwise, his work wouldn't be so priceful), you don't have enough time in just 3 weeks.
I myself wanted the 577 to be covered but haven't realized that we were so late in May Tongue

Or, Hash should have worked on constituencies months ago and adjusted his predictions with the real list of candidates.
Well, usually, for this type of work, you are heavily paid and sometimes, it's even your job Tongue Grin
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big bad fab
filliatre
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« Reply #24 on: May 28, 2012, 10:33:51 AM »

Bouches-du-Rhône:
In the 12th, I think it will be a duel between FN and UMP (or FN and FN-lite in this case, if you want Wink)
I even think that the left might be expelled from the run-off in the 8th, 9th and 10th due to divisions and bad results.
OK with you for everything, except the 14th. Joissains has made many mistakes in her municipal governance and people are fed up, I think. That's purely a feeling... But you should keep your hopes high, here Grin

Very, very great stuff on Bouches-du-Rhône, Hash. Probably the most difficult department to do, with Nord, Gard sometimes (I don't know this year: still have to do it), Corse and some overseas territories Tongue
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