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Author Topic: TN-Vanderbilt: Romney+1 among Adults, +7 among RV  (Read 4116 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: May 20, 2012, 12:00:35 am »

42% Romney
41% Obama

With 1,002 respondents to the Vanderbilt Poll, the margin for error is plus or minus 4 percentage points. The data were weighted to ensure balance in terms of age, gender, and race/ethnicity, but the unweighted findings were nearly identical. The poll was conducted by calling a random sample of landline and cellphone telephone numbers between May 2 and May 9, 2012.

http://data3.tennessean.com/projects/vanderbilt-politics-polls/?qid=846

Sample is 304 Democrats, 303 Republicans, 265 Independents, 93 Something else (Greens, Libertarians, etc. I guess), 22 Don't know and 15 Refused.

Obama leads Democrats 85-7, Romney leads Republicans 83-5 and Romney leads Indies by 45-34.
« Last Edit: May 20, 2012, 11:07:06 am by Tender Branson »Logged
Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: May 20, 2012, 12:06:50 am »

It's a bit annoying that they screened for registered voters, yet when you go to "filter" for demographic subgroups, registered voters is not an option. Just party, age, religion, race etc.
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memphis
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« Reply #2 on: May 20, 2012, 12:09:01 am »

Very doubtful.
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Scott
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« Reply #3 on: May 20, 2012, 12:10:16 am »

High undecideds and awful crosstabs.

Punk joll.
« Last Edit: May 20, 2012, 12:13:20 am by Senator Scott »Logged
A-Bob
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« Reply #4 on: May 20, 2012, 12:12:38 am »

Vanderbilt has had TN as Obama winning previously lol so this is great
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Jbrase
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« Reply #5 on: May 20, 2012, 12:16:08 am »

lol...
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #6 on: May 20, 2012, 12:16:46 am »

I would like a Mason-Dixon poll to back this up. Mason-Dixon generally does best in the South.
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Snowstalker's Last Stand
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« Reply #7 on: May 20, 2012, 12:22:19 am »

If only.
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BetoBro
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« Reply #8 on: May 20, 2012, 12:25:10 am »

Obama coming close in a state that swung against him in 2008? Extremely doubtful. If anything, the state will swing more against him this time around. We've seen how Tennessee has quickly transformed into a Tea Party/Republican state. I wouldn't be surprised if Obama gets under 40 percent this time.
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morgieb
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« Reply #9 on: May 20, 2012, 12:28:47 am »

Lol...Tennessee's now an R state.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #10 on: May 20, 2012, 12:30:54 am »

The partisan ID of this sample is 30.3% Dem, 30.2% Rep, and 26.4% Indy (even). The 2008 Tennessee turnout was 33% Rep, 32% Dem, and 35% Ind (R+1). That means Vanderbilt is banking on a NET larger Democratic turnout in 2012 than in 2008. If you're one of those that believes 2012 turnout will not be as favorable to Obama as it was 4 yrs ago, then this poll is over sampling Democrats a bit. But considering McCain carried this state 57-42% four yrs ago, Romney does appear to be under-performing in this Southern/Appalachian state.

They are not banking on it, because it's a poll of adults. And in TN there are a lot more Democrats registered than Republicans. Which makes the sample of adults more or less correct. Likely voter samples might be a different story though.
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Smash255
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« Reply #11 on: May 20, 2012, 01:16:31 am »

The partisan ID of this sample is 30.3% Dem, 30.2% Rep, and 26.4% Indy (even). The 2008 Tennessee turnout was 33% Rep, 32% Dem, and 35% Ind (R+1). That means Vanderbilt is banking on a NET larger Democratic turnout in 2012 than in 2008. If you're one of those that believes 2012 turnout will not be as favorable to Obama as it was 4 yrs ago, then this poll is over sampling Democrats a bit. But considering McCain carried this state 57-42% four yrs ago, Romney does appear to be under-performing in this Southern/Appalachian state.

They are not banking on it, because it's a poll of adults. And in TN there are a lot more Democrats registered than Republicans. Which makes the sample of adults more or less correct. Likely voter samples might be a different story though.

Regardless of the number of actual registered voters in TN, the poll sample is 30/30/26 (even), while actual 2008 TN turnout was 32/33/35 (R+1). So yes, it appears that for now, Vanderbilt is banking on a larger Dem turnout than in '08. If they weren't, then why wouldn't the partisan ID of the sample reflect it?

While I certainly do not agree with this poll,  you really can't say the pollster is saying turnout will be more Democratic, when we are talking about a 1% difference here
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« Reply #12 on: May 20, 2012, 02:29:45 am »

Very hard to believe especially when taking things like the West Virginia primary results into account. Clearly Romney is not exactly a great fit for the state either though even in comparison to McCain.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #13 on: May 20, 2012, 02:50:13 am »

Not going to happen, junk poll, next.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #14 on: May 20, 2012, 04:05:24 am »

Let's try a different tack. Poll is possibly accurate, but Romney's going to win way more of the undecideds than Obama, since TN is not going to vote D.
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memphis
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« Reply #15 on: May 20, 2012, 07:12:33 am »

The partisan ID of this sample is 30.3% Dem, 30.2% Rep, and 26.4% Indy (even). The 2008 Tennessee turnout was 33% Rep, 32% Dem, and 35% Ind (R+1). That means Vanderbilt is banking on a NET larger Democratic turnout in 2012 than in 2008. If you're one of those that believes 2012 turnout will not be as favorable to Obama as it was 4 yrs ago, then this poll is over sampling Democrats a bit. But considering McCain carried this state 57-42% four yrs ago, Romney does appear to be under-performing in this Southern/Appalachian state.

They are not banking on it, because it's a poll of adults. And in TN there are a lot more Democrats registered than Republicans. Which makes the sample of adults more or less correct. Likely voter samples might be a different story though.
There are exactly the same number of registered Dems and Republicans. There are 0 of each. We don't do party registration.
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« Reply #16 on: May 20, 2012, 09:50:52 am »

Counterintuitive at best. But remember Tennessee used to be the most liberal of undeniably Southern states. If the state is reverting to its pre-2000 norm, then the GOP is in big trouble there.

Watch the undecided, though.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #17 on: May 20, 2012, 10:31:00 am »

The Tennessean now has an article up as well and the article mentions their RV breakdown as well:

Quote
“Tennessee is clearly a red state,” said John Geer, a professor of political science at Vanderbilt. “But these data show that the public is much more moderate than our state legislature.”

The poll of 1,002 Tennessee residents who are 18 and older found 42 percent would vote for Romney and 41 percent for Obama if the election were held now. The survey, conducted May 2-9 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International for Vanderbilt, had a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

Geer cautioned that the registered voters among the poll participants favored Romney by a larger margin, with 47 percent saying they would vote for the former Massachusetts governor and 40 percent for Obama. He said that’s a more likely outcome in November.

“It’s not that close a race,” Geer said, predicting Romney would prevail with little trouble. “I suspect a lot of hard-core conservatives are still getting used to the idea of Romney as the nominee, and by the time the general election comes along, they’ll be in lock step with Romney. But right now there’s a small chunk that are still being cautious.”

Three of every four poll participants said they were registered to vote.

http://www.tennessean.com/article/20120520/NEWS/305170107/Vanderbilt-poll-Obama-closes-gap-Romney

So, like I predicted: Romney increases his lead among RV from 1 to 7 (which is still good for Obama).
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #18 on: May 20, 2012, 10:35:52 am »

Corrected the numbers in the database entry.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #19 on: May 20, 2012, 11:05:49 am »

Vanderbilt has consistently seen the Tennessee race as close. I don't believe that it will be anywhere near close in Tennessee in the end. But according to this pollster, Romney is expanding his lead there: http://argojournal.blogspot.com/2012/05/poll-watch-vanderbilt-tennessee-2012.html

Romney polled at 42-39% against Obama in their February poll. So Romney's 47-40% lead in this months poll actually represents a fair improvement.

Tennessee voted 57-42% for McCain/Palin in 2008, a year that saw Obama win the national popular vote by 7.3 points. Unless you think Obama will do even better in '12, there's just no way it can be close in that state in November. Just going with my gut, and nothing more, but I'm betting TN is even deeper red this go-round.

I think Romney+7 is also about what PPP found when they last polled TN a very long time ago.

TN and KY are severely underpolled anyway.
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R2D2
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« Reply #20 on: May 20, 2012, 11:08:36 am »

Junk poll.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #21 on: May 20, 2012, 11:19:07 am »

Yeah, I'll too believe it will be double-digits again at the end of the day, but nonetheless the comparison with 2008 polling is interesting:

http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?fips=47
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mondale84
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« Reply #22 on: May 20, 2012, 11:35:19 am »

Obama's ceiling is 43...an improvement nevertheless I think
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Chaddyr23
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« Reply #23 on: May 20, 2012, 12:25:49 pm »

Vanderbilt is a good school but damn they can't poll for anything
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #24 on: May 20, 2012, 12:32:09 pm »

Isn't Tennessee much more urban than other Southern states? Does this portend a widening of the urban/rural split?

Contrast this with polling from West Virginia, which has no big cities.
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