Is Florida becoming a red state?

[Ilhan Apologist]

Eh, it's a huge and diverse state. And the elections remain close. Thus, a small demographic change anywhere in the state could tip it to the other side.

I don't expect it to vote Democrat in 2020, though--in fact, it might be one of the few states Trump improves from 2016 in.

[Mr. Smith]

Nah, same R+3.5 lean.

DeSantis barely slid through because it was D+3, Hillary needed the popular vote by +3 and only hit +2.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

If the Democratic Wave of 2018 wasn't able to make Florida flip, nothing will in the near future.

Excuse me - Democratic icon Donna Shalala won in 2018.

[Beet]

The Democratic registration advantage has been steadily dwindling for decades - from the millions in the 1980s to under a quarter million today.

[cvparty]

The Democratic registration advantage has been steadily dwindling for decades - from the millions in the 1980s to under a quarter million today.

i mean at this point it’s mostly de facto republicans making the “official” switch

[henster]

The problem is the Dem friendly silent Gen retirees have mostly died off and have been replaced with the more GOP boomer retirees. The margins haven't really changed on the surface because Dems have replaced those voters with Latinos/blacks but they can't match the turnout of the retirees.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AZ is becoming a blue state at the same time FL becomes a red state

[terp40hitch]

I don't think it's a red state and frankly, I think a lot of people rushed to judgments about Ohio being a red state. I think Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada are still tossups it just depends on the candidates running. Ohio went red in 2016 because a populist promising a strong economy was running and Ohio went blue in 2008 and 2012 because the Republican just wasn't really talking to them.

My point is, these states keep getting thrown into a category of a red or blue state and candidates stop visiting them so they just become one of those states because nobody is working for their votes. Just look at 2016, we all said Wisconsin is a blue state but Trump went to the State and worked for the votes and Hillary did not so it went for Trump. I believe most states can be tossups but candidates stop visiting states because they think they are unwinnable by past historical standards.

In the end, Florida is a tossup and candidates just need to work hard to win those electoral votes.

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm not going to rule it out, it could be on its way. But right now, it's still a battleground state.

[Beet]

I don't think it's a red state and frankly, I think a lot of people rushed to judgments about Ohio being a red state. I think Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada are still tossups it just depends on the candidates running. Ohio went red in 2016 because a populist promising a strong economy was running and Ohio went blue in 2008 and 2012 because the Republican just wasn't really talking to them.

If 2016 left any doubt, one would think 2018 confirmed Ohio's red state status. Failed to win the governorship or any statewide offices except for Brown in a D +9 environment, failed to pick a single House seat in a D +41 wave, failed to make significant gains in the state legislature, & Southern-style abortion ban signed into law.

I think the D's have a better chance in Iowa next year than Ohio. The trade war has hurt farmers, the E-15 waiver issue will hurt Trump & D's elected two new House members from Iowa last year.

[Xeuma]

I don't think it's a red state and frankly, I think a lot of people rushed to judgments about Ohio being a red state. I think Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada are still tossups it just depends on the candidates running. Ohio went red in 2016 because a populist promising a strong economy was running and Ohio went blue in 2008 and 2012 because the Republican just wasn't really talking to them.

My point is, these states keep getting thrown into a category of a red or blue state and candidates stop visiting them so they just become one of those states because nobody is working for their votes. Just look at 2016, we all said Wisconsin is a blue state but Trump went to the State and worked for the votes and Hillary did not so it went for Trump. I believe most states can be tossups but candidates stop visiting states because they think they are unwinnable by past historical standards.

In the end, Florida is a tossup and candidates just need to work hard to win those electoral votes.

Ohio, with few exceptions has been effectively a one-party state for the past 30 years. On a state level, it is much closer to states like Missouri and Indiana rather than Pennsylvania.

[pikachu]

I think people are overthinking this too much? It's an inelastic, 50-50 state which both sides can win any given year and that's likely not going to change in the future as old people and Latinos keep on flooding into it.

[Person Man]

I don't think it's a red state and frankly, I think a lot of people rushed to judgments about Ohio being a red state. I think Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada are still tossups it just depends on the candidates running. Ohio went red in 2016 because a populist promising a strong economy was running and Ohio went blue in 2008 and 2012 because the Republican just wasn't really talking to them.

If 2016 left any doubt, one would think 2018 confirmed Ohio's red state status. Failed to win the governorship or any statewide offices except for Brown in a D +9 environment, failed to pick a single House seat in a D +41 wave, failed to make significant gains in the state legislature, & Southern-style abortion ban signed into law.

I think the D's have a better chance in Iowa next year than Ohio. The trade war has hurt farmers, the E-15 waiver issue will hurt Trump & D's elected two new House members from Iowa last year.

I'd agree with this. Democrats might have another chance in Iowa but Ohio has been as thoroughly "southernized" as Indiana and Missouri.

There were still successes in Florida. Democrats picked up two house seats and the Agriculture seat. Scott just has a way with people and DeSantis ran far to the right but has governed as a centrist who takes global warming seriously. Even the state legislature smothered two personhood bills in the crib (its a pun if you think its a pun).

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

I don't think it's a red state and frankly, I think a lot of people rushed to judgments about Ohio being a red state. I think Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada are still tossups it just depends on the candidates running. Ohio went red in 2016 because a populist promising a strong economy was running and Ohio went blue in 2008 and 2012 because the Republican just wasn't really talking to them.

If 2016 left any doubt, one would think 2018 confirmed Ohio's red state status. Failed to win the governorship or any statewide offices except for Brown in a D +9 environment, failed to pick a single House seat in a D +41 wave, failed to make significant gains in the state legislature, & Southern-style abortion ban signed into law.

I think the D's have a better chance in Iowa next year than Ohio. The trade war has hurt farmers, the E-15 waiver issue will hurt Trump & D's elected two new House members from Iowa last year.

I'd agree with this. Democrats might have another chance in Iowa but Ohio has been as thoroughly "southernized" as Indiana and Missouri.

There were still successes in Florida. Democrats picked up two house seats and the Agriculture seat. Scott just has a way with people and DeSantis ran far to the right but has governed as a centrist who takes global warming seriously. Even the state legislature smothered two personhood bills in the crib (its a pun if you think its a pun).

Yea, OH has huge chunks of Southernized Appalachia in it, that has a really bad long term trend for Dems. IA has zero Appalachian or Southern influence.

[Skye]

Florida elected Republican governors for more than 20 years and now both Senators from Florida are Republican. Trump’s handling of the Venezuelan crisis could turn Venezuelan-American voters in Florida into Republicans, which could flip the Hillsborough County (home to Tampa), increasing Trump’s chances of winning Florida in 2020. And Rubio won his senate races by wide margins.

Hillsborough is no longer a bellwether and is pretty solidly blue now. It could flip in a big election but Dems have a clear advantage and the Hillsborough GOP is in shambles.

Actually Clinton won it by just 6 percentage points in 2016 and her numbers there are lower than Obama's 2012 numbers.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillsborough_County,_Florida

So with stronger Republican turnout and turning Venezuelan-American voters there (who represent over 20 % of Tampa's population) into Republicans, it would definitely either flip Hillsborough or just drastically reduce D margin of victory there.

And also, another factor that could help Trump winning Florida in 2020 is that Florida always went to the incumbent since 1984.

Where do you get that Venezuelan expats represent 20% of Tampa? That looks like an insane and unbelievable number to me, the only city that I could think of having that share of Venezuelan-Americans is Doral in Miami-Dade county.

[Person Man]

Florida elected Republican governors for more than 20 years and now both Senators from Florida are Republican. Trump’s handling of the Venezuelan crisis could turn Venezuelan-American voters in Florida into Republicans, which could flip the Hillsborough County (home to Tampa), increasing Trump’s chances of winning Florida in 2020. And Rubio won his senate races by wide margins.

Hillsborough is no longer a bellwether and is pretty solidly blue now. It could flip in a big election but Dems have a clear advantage and the Hillsborough GOP is in shambles.

Actually Clinton won it by just 6 percentage points in 2016 and her numbers there are lower than Obama's 2012 numbers.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillsborough_County,_Florida

So with stronger Republican turnout and turning Venezuelan-American voters there (who represent over 20 % of Tampa's population) into Republicans, it would definitely either flip Hillsborough or just drastically reduce D margin of victory there.

And also, another factor that could help Trump winning Florida in 2020 is that Florida always went to the incumbent since 1984.

Where do you get that Venezuelan expats represent 20% of Tampa? That looks like an insane and unbelievable number to me, the only city that I could think of having that share of Venezuelan-Americans is Doral in Miami-Dade county.

How would Trump making the situation help him with the Republican vote? He failed. My thinking is still that whatever strengths Trump gain in Hispanics is because some of them want to have white grandkids or that they think of themselves more as "Spanish" than "Hispanic".

[Skye]

Florida elected Republican governors for more than 20 years and now both Senators from Florida are Republican. Trump’s handling of the Venezuelan crisis could turn Venezuelan-American voters in Florida into Republicans, which could flip the Hillsborough County (home to Tampa), increasing Trump’s chances of winning Florida in 2020. And Rubio won his senate races by wide margins.

Hillsborough is no longer a bellwether and is pretty solidly blue now. It could flip in a big election but Dems have a clear advantage and the Hillsborough GOP is in shambles.

Actually Clinton won it by just 6 percentage points in 2016 and her numbers there are lower than Obama's 2012 numbers.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillsborough_County,_Florida

So with stronger Republican turnout and turning Venezuelan-American voters there (who represent over 20 % of Tampa's population) into Republicans, it would definitely either flip Hillsborough or just drastically reduce D margin of victory there.

And also, another factor that could help Trump winning Florida in 2020 is that Florida always went to the incumbent since 1984.

Where do you get that Venezuelan expats represent 20% of Tampa? That looks like an insane and unbelievable number to me, the only city that I could think of having that share of Venezuelan-Americans is Doral in Miami-Dade county.

How would Trump making the situation help him with the Republican vote? He failed. My thinking is still that whatever strengths Trump gain in Hispanics is because some of them want to have white grandkids or that they think of themselves more as "Spanish" than "Hispanic".

...what?

[RINO Tom]

Not everywhere has to be *becoming* something all the time.

[Gracile]

On the presidential level, Florida has voted more Republican than the United States in every election since 1980. So in a sense, it was already tilting toward being a red state. That said, the margins are often close because of the state's unique demographic makeup - which gives it swing state status.

[Frodo]

Since it doesn't look like Maduro is going anywhere anytime soon, Trump has lost interest in Venezuelan regime change.

I wonder how Venezuelan nationals in Florida are going to react to Trump losing interest in their cause of ousting Nicolas Maduro.

[Skye]

Since it doesn't look like Maduro is going anywhere anytime soon, Trump has lost interest in Venezuelan regime change.

I wonder how Venezuelan nationals in Florida are going to react to Trump losing interest in their cause of ousting Nicolas Maduro.

It's very hard to say, considering nothing about Venezuelan Americans, at least recently, has been supported by hard data. So it's mostly going to be anecdotal evidence. As far as I know, the place where the most Venezuelan Americans live should still be Doral, Florida, which strongly supported Hillary Clinton. Maybe the results next year could indicate if they shifted towards Trump.

[nerd73]

Florida has been a pretty consistent R+3 or so state in recent years, and very inelastic.

However, it's also going through a very large demographic shift in recent years, with Cuban/Hispanic GOP votes being replaced by WWC GOP votes.

[Ilhan Apologist]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/no-florida-is-not-redder-than-texas/

Lol I feel like this article was directed at Atlas users