The five states where he lost many counties are the same ones that more or less trended against him in 2008 (except TN/KY). No surprises here.
All of these states trended against him, but it was WV, TN, LA, OK, and AR that actually swung against him. However, I think AL and KY had the smallest trends in his direction/smallest trends in his favor.
TN is likely only off the list because of a mix of dumb luck, a live GOP primary, and no "live" primary down the ballot.
Quick note: Thanks for the switch on Judd. It is much appreciated.