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  FL-Quinnipiac: Romney+6, Romney/Rubio+8
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Author Topic: FL-Quinnipiac: Romney+6, Romney/Rubio+8  (Read 4368 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: May 23, 2012, 08:14:25 am »

47-41 Romney/Obama

49-41 Romney/Rubio vs. Obama/Biden

...

From May 15 - 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,722 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=1752
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Dereich
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« Reply #1 on: May 23, 2012, 08:25:16 am »

That Romney has a 50-40 advantage on handling the economy should be enough to bring Florida back to the blue column.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #2 on: May 23, 2012, 08:53:31 am »

Compared to Bush 2004, Romney has made massive gains among Florida whites.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3 on: May 23, 2012, 09:10:10 am »

Looks like Quinnipiac removed this poll from their website ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #4 on: May 23, 2012, 09:12:40 am »

That's odd. The link you provided above still works.

Really ? For me it shows:

Quote
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Earthling
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« Reply #5 on: May 23, 2012, 10:33:23 am »

Link still works for me.
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Miles
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« Reply #6 on: May 23, 2012, 10:44:40 am »

Compared to Bush 2004, Romney has made massive gains among Florida whites.

Too bad the growing number of hispanic voters can't stand him.
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Ritchie Valens
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« Reply #7 on: May 23, 2012, 10:49:11 am »

Compared to Bush 2004, Romney has made massive gains among Florida whites.

Too bad the growing number of hispanic voters can't stand him.

Yeah, too bad.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #8 on: May 23, 2012, 03:12:27 pm »

Well, a gender gap like that isn't special to the US.
We have the same in Canada and I suppose elsewhere.

Easy to explain, because the women are usually poorer than men and have more "social" jobs (nursing, etc...) which make them see the sad life of poor people, while more men are in leadership positions, where they see more benfits with right-wing positions.
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Ritchie Valens
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« Reply #9 on: May 23, 2012, 03:17:51 pm »

Well, a gender gap like that isn't special to the US.
We have the same in Canada and I suppose elsewhere.

Easy to explain, because the women are usually poorer than men and have more "social" jobs (nursing, etc...) which make them see the sad life of poor people, while more men are in leadership positions, where they see more benfits with right-wing positions.

I always thought it was because women vote based on emotion more than men do.
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King
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« Reply #10 on: May 23, 2012, 03:38:48 pm »

Well, a gender gap like that isn't special to the US.
We have the same in Canada and I suppose elsewhere.

Easy to explain, because the women are usually poorer than men and have more "social" jobs (nursing, etc...) which make them see the sad life of poor people, while more men are in leadership positions, where they see more benfits with right-wing positions.

I always thought it was because women vote based on emotion more than men do.

But neither group as a whole votes on emotion as much as you do.
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Ritchie Valens
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« Reply #11 on: May 23, 2012, 03:40:51 pm »

Well, a gender gap like that isn't special to the US.
We have the same in Canada and I suppose elsewhere.

Easy to explain, because the women are usually poorer than men and have more "social" jobs (nursing, etc...) which make them see the sad life of poor people, while more men are in leadership positions, where they see more benfits with right-wing positions.

I always thought it was because women vote based on emotion more than men do.

But neither group as a whole votes on emotion as much as you do.

Oh I don't doubt that, since many conservatives are reactionary.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #12 on: May 23, 2012, 04:23:33 pm »

Compared to Bush 2004, Romney has made massive gains among Florida whites.

Too bad the growing number of hispanic voters can't stand him.


In Florida? Mitt roughly breaks even on Hispanics. Florida is unique in that Mitt has a large room to take advantage of white flight from the Democratic party, not so with the bordering states.
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ajc0918
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« Reply #13 on: May 23, 2012, 05:42:09 pm »

Compared to Bush 2004, Romney has made massive gains among Florida whites.

Too bad the growing number of hispanic voters can't stand him.


In Florida? Mitt roughly breaks even on Hispanics. Florida is unique in that Mitt has a large room to take advantage of white flight from the Democratic party, not so with the bordering states.

Young Cubans and almost all other Hispanics are trending away from the GOP.
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Buh her emails!
diskymike44
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« Reply #14 on: May 23, 2012, 06:06:13 pm »

trash poll
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Solidarity Forever
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« Reply #15 on: May 23, 2012, 06:08:28 pm »

Well, a gender gap like that isn't special to the US.
We have the same in Canada and I suppose elsewhere.

Easy to explain, because the women are usually poorer than men and have more "social" jobs (nursing, etc...) which make them see the sad life of poor people, while more men are in leadership positions, where they see more benfits with right-wing positions.

I always thought it was because women vote based on emotion more than men do.
I always thought it was because the right-wing seeks to take away womens' rights. But that's another story.

I don't think FL's ever going to vote like this for a long time. It'll probably remain a swing state for a while. But yes, Rubio probably will help Mittens.
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #16 on: May 23, 2012, 10:27:35 pm »

Database entry: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=1220120521015
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Brittain33
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« Reply #17 on: May 23, 2012, 10:59:03 pm »

Well, a gender gap like that isn't special to the US.
We have the same in Canada and I suppose elsewhere.

Easy to explain, because the women are usually poorer than men and have more "social" jobs (nursing, etc...) which make them see the sad life of poor people, while more men are in leadership positions, where they see more benfits with right-wing positions.

I always thought it was because women vote based on emotion more than men do.

Tell us more about how women's brains work.
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Torie
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« Reply #18 on: May 23, 2012, 11:04:26 pm »

Well, a gender gap like that isn't special to the US.
We have the same in Canada and I suppose elsewhere.

Easy to explain, because the women are usually poorer than men and have more "social" jobs (nursing, etc...) which make them see the sad life of poor people, while more men are in leadership positions, where they see more benfits with right-wing positions.

I always thought it was because women vote based on emotion more than men do.

Tell us more about how women's brains work.

Indeed. It probably deserves a vanity essay placed on the Community Forum actually.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #19 on: May 28, 2012, 04:40:08 am »

This poll would actually show a tie if the current FL party registration numbers are used:

40D-36R-24I

produces a 45-45 tie, when Quinnipiac's internals are used.
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old timey villain
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« Reply #20 on: May 28, 2012, 03:03:24 pm »

Why did Florida only become a swing state in the 1990s? Even when a lot of the same demographics were in place before that?
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timothyinMD
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« Reply #21 on: May 28, 2012, 03:39:04 pm »

Well, a gender gap like that isn't special to the US.
We have the same in Canada and I suppose elsewhere.

Easy to explain, because the women are usually poorer than men and have more "social" jobs (nursing, etc...) which make them see the sad life of poor people, while more men are in leadership positions, where they see more benfits with right-wing positions.

I always thought it was because women vote based on emotion more than men do.

The women vote is 5% more minority than the men vote.  That is the explanation.  Also, there's a sizable segment of single women with children who rely on taxpayer-funded welfare for their livelihood.

Example: Georgia's registered voters
Registered men: 29% black
Registered women: 34% black
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krazen1211
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« Reply #22 on: June 02, 2012, 11:12:46 am »

Quinnipiac responds to the party line critique.


http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/content/quinnipiac-steve-schale-please-get-your-facts-straight

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2012/05/of-quinnipiacs-polling-demographics-and-partisan-whining.html



Those were NOT our numbers. Our weighted sample was 34% Republican, 31% Democrat and 29% Independent.   It also was 69% white, 14% Hispanic, and 12% black.
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Lincoln Republican
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« Reply #23 on: June 02, 2012, 02:45:28 pm »

This poll is fantastic news for Romney.

It demonstrates Romney's cross party appeal. 

Now, if he is successful in extrapolating this cross party appeal to other swing states, then things will be looking very good for Mitt indeed.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #24 on: June 07, 2012, 07:16:50 am »

This poll is fantastic news for Romney.

It demonstrates Romney's cross party appeal. 

Now, if he is successful in extrapolating this cross party appeal to other swing states, then things will be looking very good for Mitt indeed.

Florida is politically a hybrid state. Northern Florida is truly part of the South in its politics, and the sorts of white Democrats who used to vote for Clinton and Carter (also George Wallace -- that is the clue) have largely gone R in their voting as elsewhere in the South. These people may still be nominal Democrats, but they vote heavily Republican -- or else consider President Obama the 'wrong sort of Democrat'. Southern Florida has large numbers of Hispanic voters, including the Cuban-Americans who used to be reliably R when their only concern was Fidel Castro and would vote for whoever had the most strident anti-Communist message, and other Hispanics who do not have that concern. Many of the northern retirees and those who followed along are nominal Republicans, but they come from the old Rockefeller wing of the Republican Party and can't stand  the 'Wallace Democrats'. Florida also has a large African-American population. 

Graft Alabama onto Michigan and you have a fair approximation of Florida.
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