Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014

[Frodo]

There is still a year to go, but since I am not seeing how support for independence will rise to competitive levels, I will go ahead and make the prediction that independence will fail at the ballot-box.  I think Scotland will be fortunate if it gains even more autonomy over its own future than it has now.    

[Frodo]

This isn't looking good for the separatists at all:

Support for Scottish independence falls to new low

One referendum that is guaranteed to take place in is that on Scottish independence in 2014 and the "no" campaign (or, as it prefers to be known, Better Together) is in an ever-stronger position. The 2012 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey, the results of which were released today, shows that support for independence has fallen to just 23 per cent, down from 32 per cent last year and the joint-lowest level since devolution.

Most notable is that backing for independence is now at a lower level than it was when the SNP came to power in 2007, a reminder that many voters support the party in spite of its support for secession, rather than because of it. Before Alex Salmond became First Minister, support for independence averaged 30 per cent, since then it has averaged 26 per cent.

[Frodo]

From nearly a week ago, but I only just found this:

Scottish Independence Gains Support With Help of Young

By Peter Woodifield - Feb 13, 2013 8:44 AM ET

Support among voters in Scotland for becoming an independent country is rising, with a majority of young voters now ready to quit the U.K., according to a poll published today.

Backing for independence rose to 34 percent of respondents, while those in favor of retaining the status quo fell to 55 percent, according to the Ipsos MORI survey published in today’s London-based Times newspaper. The 21-percentage-point gap compares with 28 points in October and 20 points in June, based on reports from the same pollster.

“Our latest poll shows a boost in support for those campaigning for Scottish independence, who will take some encouragement from these findings,” Mark Diffley, director at Ipsos MORI Scotland, said on the pollster’s website. “Having said that, support for independence is behind where it was a year ago.”

[Frodo]

Now we have a clearer picture of what an independent Scotland would look like:

Independent Scotland would keep the pound and the queen, says Salmond

BY BELINDA GOLDSMITH
GLASGOW, Scotland
Tue Nov 26, 2013

(Reuters) - An independent Scotland would keep the British pound, the queen and remain in the European Union but have its own defense force and collect its own taxes, First Minister Alex Salmond said on Tuesday.

In a 670-page blueprint aimed at convincing Scots they should vote on September 18 next year to end a 306-year union with England, Salmond said there would be no need to increase taxes if Scotland broke away.

With separatists lagging in opinion polls, his Scottish National Party is hoping the blueprint will win over the many skeptics, answering questions his Scottish National Party (SNP) has been accused of dodging.

[Frodo]

Let's suppose that independence-proponents lose narrowly in the upcoming September referendum -how much of an effect will the results have on the 2015 Scottish parliamentary elections?  Is the SNP safe regardless?   

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The UK government has kindly informed Scotland that if they do in fact do the deed, they will lose the pound sterling, and will have to make do with an alternative -perhaps adopting the euro.  

[Frodo]

When is the vote?

September 18. 

[Frodo]

The unionists look set to keep Scotland in the United Kingdom (and by a solid margin) if this latest poll is to be believed. 

[Frodo]

It isn't just native Scots who want independence:

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[Frodo]

Now that about 55% of Scotland has voted to remain part of the UK, what impact will this result have on next year's Scottish parliamentary elections?  Will the SNP be adversely impacted by it, or is it likely to have no significant effect?