Let's suppose that independence-proponents lose narrowly in the upcoming September referendum -how much of an effect will the results have on the 2015 Scottish parliamentary elections? Is the SNP safe regardless?
Unless I am mistaken, the SNP won their victories despite support for independence being less than huge in the past, so I don't see a narrow loss really having that much of an impact. Considering polling over the past year, the loss being narrow could be spun as the Yes vote over performing expectations and momentum being on the side of independence. A landslide loss though would obviously be embarrassing and bad for the SNP.