How likely is this map?

[Joe Biden 2020]

Obama - 268
Romney - 270

I decided to give Virginia and New Hampshire to Romney, as well as Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Probably the most likely scenario for a Romney victory (though some of the percentages are off; Obama wouldn't break 60% in so many states)

[Joe Biden 2020]

Probably the most likely scenario for a Romney victory (though some of the percentages are off; Obama wouldn't break 60% in so many states)

I know Virginia is probably going Obama, and Wisconsin, Iowa, and Michigan are not in the bank for Obama, either, so I could have very easily flipped two of those three (especially Wisconsin and Iowa).

[fezzyfestoon]

Disturbingly plausible. My guess at this point is that Virginia will be the tipping point for either side.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

It's one of the likelier scenarios.

Unfortunately, I'm thinking more and more that Romney will come up just short. I can see him winning all of Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and Ohio. But I don't see where he makes up that one extra state that he needs. New Hampshire looks unlikely. Iowa looks unlikely. Nevada looks unlikely. Colorado looks unlikely.

[Devils30]

Likely but NH has had a notable swing back to Obama the past six months after being fairly good for Romney through 2011. NH, IA are generally slightly more blue than the national average. Very slightly.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Disturbingly plausible. My guess at this point is that Virginia will be the tipping point for either side.

That's my guess for the tipping point and thus may be one of the last states called.

[BaldEagle1991]

Likely for an Romney victory, but in general this I see this as a 50-50.

[fezzyfestoon]

Disturbingly plausible. My guess at this point is that Virginia will be the tipping point for either side.

That's my guess for the tipping point and thus may be one of the last states called.

Good call...same with Ohio. I'd venture to say Virginia replaces Florida in the spotlight alongside Ohio towards the end.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Florida is way more favorable to Romney than Virginia is. Romney needs to lock in Florida and North Carolina early (he's doing an okay job of it at the moment). The heavy lifting will be in Ohio and Virginia. I also think he can pull it off. But again, it's the one extra state that will really get Romney. I don't know where he gets those EVs.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Florida is way more favorable to Romney than Virginia is. Romney needs to lock in Florida and North Carolina early (he's doing an okay job of it at the moment). The heavy lifting will be in Ohio and Virginia. I also think he can pull it off. But again, it's the one extra state that will really get Romney. I don't know where he gets those EVs.

I'm having a funny feeling those extra votes could come from Wisconsin mainly due to the polling and shear backlash toward the Democrats.

[fezzyfestoon]

I think Romney's gonna struggle to win Florida, but I won't be surprised if he does.

[Marokai Backbeat]

I'd probably say this is the most likely Romney win scenario, though I wonder what hell would be raised if Romney won like this if Obama won the popular vote.

[Ljube]

Republican strategy for this election is 3-2-1:

Win all McCain states.
Then win the three reliable Bush states: Indiana, North Carolina and Virginia.
Then win the two Republican leaning states: Florida and Ohio.
Then win one other state - any state.


I think it will come down to this. The election is going to be very close, similar to 2000.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Florida is way more favorable to Romney than Virginia is. Romney needs to lock in Florida and North Carolina early (he's doing an okay job of it at the moment). The heavy lifting will be in Ohio and Virginia. I also think he can pull it off. But again, it's the one extra state that will really get Romney. I don't know where he gets those EVs.

Personally, I think it's going to be NH, if any. Maybe WI, but it has been polling for Obama fairly consistently and I think the inflated numbers for Romney are just due to the recall messing things up. Although, if they're not, we could see a Romney win like this:

Romney 276, Obama 262

[BaldEagle1991]

I think Romney's gonna struggle to win Florida, but I won't be surprised if he does.

He will win Florida, he's been leading there by a comfortable margin in the polls.

[WhyteRain]

On Election Night, at 7 pm, Virginia voting ends.  If Obama wins that state, you can turn off the TV and go to bed.

At 8 pm, voting ends in Maine and Pennsylvania.  If Romney wins EITHER of them, turn out the lights.

[Dereich]

[/quote]

The worst thing about this map is just how UGLY it is. I find myself looking at possible Romney wins and hoping he wins, say, Nevada just to keep the map looking nice.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Haha, I hear ya. As much as I hate the 2008 map, it sure is purdy.

[fezzyfestoon]

I think Romney's gonna struggle to win Florida, but I won't be surprised if he does.

He will win Florida, he's been leading there by a comfortable margin in the polls.

It's May

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Haha, I hear ya. As much as I hate the 2008 map, it sure is purdy.

Not really. VA and NC looked like a giant red tumor. IMHO, no map is pretty if the Democrat doesn't win NV.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

The Obama Squeaker Victory (272/266) is just beautiful (although frustrating):

[Donerail]

This (improbable) one is probably the most aesthetically pleasing map: