Romney to announce running mate on Saturday @9am ET in Norfolk, VA

[pepper11]

I know Rice was mostly floated as a distraction... but after a bad overseas trip and lagging numbers, she's a risk I'd look into. Almost every swing state poll (and some safe-D states), show Rice being a significant help for Romney.

This. She won't give him the 5% boost a lot of polling shows. But she would be very difficult for the left to brand her as non mainstream. And I think 2 or 3% lasting boost is realistic.  She would be very good at getting the mom vote.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I actually forgot Portman's first name for a while

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN!?

[Lief 🗽]

I know Rice was mostly floated as a distraction... but after a bad overseas trip and lagging numbers, she's a risk I'd look into. Almost every swing state poll (and some safe-D states), show Rice being a significant help for Romney.

Until there's a revolt at the convention over a pro-choice VP.

[Mr. Morden]

Jon Karl: Shortlist down to Pawlenty/Portman/Ryan.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/OTUS/jonathan-karls-list-vp-field-august-portman-pawlenty-ryan/story?id=16354225#.UBk1-mFfFQJ

http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/video/mitt-romney-set-pick-vice-president-2012-election-16902991

He says "I believe the short list comes down to three names: Rob Portman, Tim Pawlenty and Paul Ryan", but it doesn't sound like he's really getting that from a primary source (the Romney campaign telling him).  Rather, it sounds like he's reading the tea leaves.  The more interesting thing here is this bit:

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Any day now?  Romney isn't actually going to announce before the end of the Olympics, is he?

[Themistocles18]

I don't quite understand why anyone thinks Ryan on the ticket will cost Romney with seniors.  Ryan's Medicare proposals don't actually affect seniors and his social security reforms are distant enough- having been dropped from both iterations of his budget- that they're unlikely to get the bulk of the attention.  Plus, did anyone watch any of the townhalls Ryan held during his time in the sun?  They were full to the brim with seniors.  Ryan and Romney are going to have to sell the working age population, not seniors.  PPP's Wisconsin poll is instructive.  By himself, Romney loses the 65+ cohort 50-43.  With Walker, he loses it 49-43.  With Ryan, he loses it 48-44.  Romney's favorables were 42-49 with the 65+.  Ryan's were 43-42.  Walker's 49-47.  Obama's 50-47.  Florida's in no danger with Ryan on the ticket, anymore than it was when Rubio ran on similar reforms.  In an extended campaign, seniors realize that nothing Republicans are proposing actually affects them. 

[AmericanNation]

I don't quite understand why anyone thinks Ryan on the ticket will cost Romney with seniors.  Ryan's Medicare proposals don't actually affect seniors and his social security reforms are distant enough- having been dropped from both iterations of his budget- that they're unlikely to get the bulk of the attention.  Plus, did anyone watch any of the townhalls Ryan held during his time in the sun?  They were full to the brim with seniors.  Ryan and Romney are going to have to sell the working age population, not seniors.  PPP's Wisconsin poll is instructive.  By himself, Romney loses the 65+ cohort 50-43.  With Walker, he loses it 49-43.  With Ryan, he loses it 48-44.  Romney's favorables were 42-49 with the 65+.  Ryan's were 43-42.  Walker's 49-47.  Obama's 50-47.  Florida's in no danger with Ryan on the ticket, anymore than it was when Rubio ran on similar reforms.  In an extended campaign, seniors realize that nothing Republicans are proposing actually affects them.  

True.  
If Ryan isn't the VP, the Dems will lie and confuse the issue AND team Romney won't crush that crap with the truth because they won't focus on it correctly.

If he is the VP, the Dems will lie and confuse the issue AND team Romney will crush them with the truth because Ryan is the best spokesman/ defender of his/Romney's plan.    

Ryan is probably the best choice with seniors.  

As far as tea leaves go, on primary nights Ann Romney introduced Mitt for every victory speech I can remember except Wisconsin... where Ryan did the honors.  

[ShadowRocket]

A quick question, but in the event he was picked, would Ryan be able to run simultaneously for VP and reelection to the House?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

A quick question, but in the event he was picked, would Ryan be able to run simultaneously for VP and reelection to the House?

Yes, Biden did that for his Senate seat.

[AmericanNation]

A quick question, but in the event he was picked, would Ryan be able to run simultaneously for VP and reelection to the House?

Yea, we covered this a while ago.  Ryan's office confirmed over the phone that it is legal to do so in Wisconsin (and that they only know this because they looked into it after being asked many times).  Many states have some type of "LBJ" law as they're commonly called.   

[Mr. Morden]

Beth Myers (head of the VP vetting team) is in Basalt, Colorado with Romney today, as he meets with some GOP governors who're there for the RGA meeting.  Romney will appear at a rally with Christie, McDonnell, Jindal, and Martinez:

http://thehill.com/blogs/twitter-room/other-news/241837-head-of-romney-vp-search-on-hand-for-rally-with-jindal-mcdonnell

ABC says that this is Jindal's first public appearance with Romney aside from fundraisers:

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/08/veep-beat-romney-campaign-bulking-up-vp-team/

Is that true?  I could have sworn they'd done an appearance together at some point in the past.

Also, the campaign is adding more staff-in-waiting for Romney's soon-to-be running mate:

link

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[Grumpier Than Thou]

If the Olympics end August 12th (as Wikipedia has told me) I'd expect an announcement between the 14th and the 17th, which is two weeks before the convention. Plenty of time to begin campaigning.

[Mr. Morden]

Romney campaigned in Colorado today, and will campaign in Nevada on Friday.  Does he have any other events between this weekend and Friday, Aug. 10th, when he starts his bus tour?  If he has a big gap in his schedule this coming week, that might be when he huddles with his top aides to make a final veep decision.  There might also be face-to-face interviews with the top two or three or four short listers.  That's frequently happened in recent election cycles.

[RogueBeaver]

His schedule is only released 3 days in advance IIRC, so we won't know till Saturday or Sunday.

[California8429]

It seems the 10th is the day. The olympics will be died down by then, I mean nobody really watches the closing ceremony, it sorta fades away. He doesn't have to wait until the actual close. I bet he'll kick it off on the bus tour so people watch, otherwise he finishes with it and nobody really cares until he finishes the tour and if he announces on the way it's giving the middle finger to the bus tour states he already went to.

[Mr. Morden]

The bus tour will be August 10-13.  As far as I can tell, it's been reported that the bus tour will hit these states on these days:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/07/31/romney-preps-swing-state-blitz-stirring-v-p-speculation/

http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/news_politics/2012/07/romney-planning-pre-convention-bus-tour-to-hit-orlando-speculation-vp-pick-could-be-on-board-too.html

August 11: Virginia
August 12: North Carolina
August 13: Florida

AFAIK, it hasn't been confirmed where the tour will begin on August 10, however this article says:

http://www.newsandsentinel.com/page/content.detail/id/563701/Obama--Romney-come-to-Ohio--but-not-locally.html?nav=5061

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I would assume that Ohio would then be August 10, since it's the only day left.

Romney is also scheduled to do a fundraiser in Charlotte on August 15:

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2012/08/03/3426713/romney-will-visit-charlotte-on.html

Pawlenty is doing an event in New Hampshire on August 11, the second day of the bus tour:

http://www.nhgop.org/events/detail/4891

though that's presumably something he could easily cancel or reschedule for veep-related reasons.  I don't know about the other likely short-listers.

[Keystone Phil]

The 10th? Wouldn't it be the 9th? A Thursday is a far better day to make news than a Friday and it allows the running mate to get three full bus tour days.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

I'm beginning to grow more confident that the pick will be Paul Ryan. No matter what anyone says or reports, I have a gut feeling that it'll be Paul Ryan. At the end of the day, Pawlenty is safe, but he's too safe. The base will get behind the Romney/Pawlenty ticket, but I highly doubt Independents will. Plus there'll be a bunch of "Obamneycare" ads, etc. Paul Ryan will excite the base and would definitely win over more Indies than Pawlenty would.

[Lief 🗽]

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hero

[Mr. Morden]

Romney is doing a fundraiser in Indiana on Saturday:

http://www.courierpress.com/news/2012/aug/02/no-headline---romneyevent/

Still no word on his schedule between Sunday and Thursday.

A Boehner spokesman has joined the staff of the soon-to-be Romney running mate:

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/242079-boehner-spokesman-moves-to-romney-camps-vp-staff

Portman doesn't have Romney's VP app:

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/politics/2012/08/02/portman-no-room-for-that-app/

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[RogueBeaver]

NBC has the schedule.

http://video.msnbc.msn.com/nbc-news/48489083


Karl still bullish on Ryan.

http://www.mediaite.com/online/abc-news-jonathan-karl-talks-to-mediaite-about-romneys-potential-v-p-pick-that-could-reset-the-race/

[morgieb]

I'm beginning to grow more confident that the pick will be Paul Ryan. No matter what anyone says or reports, I have a gut feeling that it'll be Paul Ryan. At the end of the day, Pawlenty is safe, but he's too safe. The base will get behind the Romney/Pawlenty ticket, but I highly doubt Independents will. Plus there'll be a bunch of "Obamneycare" ads, etc. Paul Ryan will excite the base and would definitely win over more Indies than Pawlenty would.

Ryan budget much?

[Mr. Morden]

NBC has the schedule.

http://video.msnbc.msn.com/nbc-news/48489083

OK, they say nothing about Romney's whereabouts between Sunday and Wednesday.  They do have him listed as going to two fundraisers in New York on Thursday.  From searching The Google, I found this tweet:

http://en.twitter.com/shushwalshe/status/225208725969965056

suggesting that these are breakfast and lunch fundraisers, freeing Romney to spend the rest of the day preparing for his four day bus tour.

I still think an announcement during the Olympics is kind of unlikely.  So I'd lean more towards it taking place *after* the bus tour.  But if it does happen during the Olympics, then I'd guess that it'll happen either on the morning of Friday Aug. 10, or possibly even the evening of Thursday Aug. 9.  And I'd predict that it'll happen in Michigan, Romney's original home state.

We know that the bus tour hits Virginia on Aug. 11, and we know that it'll also hit Ohio (probably before Virginia).  Why not have it start in Michigan, where Romney grew up, and have it make its way to Florida, where the RNC will be held?  I mean, if he's going to announce his running mate at this time, then what's the alternative?  Announce it in Ohio, home state of Portman, one of the shortlisters?  Only makes sense if you're picking Portman.  And even if you are picking Portman, why spoil the surprise by revealing that you're going to make the announcement in his home state?  Michigan seems like it makes the most sense.

In fact, even if the announcement isn't for another two or three weeks, I'll predict that it'll be made in Michigan.

[Supersonic]

I don't know if this has already been posted, but... Tim Pawlenty is also having some tax trouble.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/aug/03/tim-pawlenty-tax-vice-presidential

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[RogueBeaver]

Pawlenty's made the top 2 last time, presumably McCain's team knew about that. Though given how laughably incompetent they were in "vetting" Palin maybe not. Pawlenty is the least wealthy of this trio. Portman #1, Ryan #2.

[California8429]

Pawlenty's made the top 2 last time, presumably McCain's team knew about that. Though given how laughably incompetent they were in "vetting" Palin maybe not. Pawlenty is the least wealthy of this trio. Portman #1, Ryan #2.

McCain never seriously looked at him at all in the final round. He was simply used as a decoy and wasn't even told he was a decoy.