Romney to announce running mate on Saturday @9am ET in Norfolk, VA

[AmericanNation]

Ryan is the best spokesman for Romney, the best communicator, and probably the smartest (in some ways) guy on the short list. 

The number one problem for Romney his entire political career has been letting his opponent define him.  Ryan is the perfect guy to counter punch everything thrown at him and replace the smears with a better image.         

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-3460_162-57472590/rep-ryan-obama-is-dividing-distracting-the-country/?tag=untagged

[AmericanNation]

http://www.aei-ideas.org/2012/07/paul-ryan-rips-obamas-comment-that-if-youve-got-a-business-you-didnt-build-that-somebody-else-made-that-happen/

Ryan is always the best at this type of thing.  I read the commonplace line: 

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The way he says it (and carefully thinks about it) you realize that Obama really is extremely lazy.  He never engages in honest debate.  He never engages in energetic debate.  Obama is without a doubt intellectually Lazy.  Just a perfect point made in the "filler" of the comments.         

[AmericanNation]

WI pads the margin, but it isn't 270. (more like 28/9x) VA is a much likelier contender for that role. If he's it, home state lift will be just a bonus.

Romney/Ryan can pull out these minimal paths pretty simply. 

269 - 250

270 - 259

[AmericanNation]

Ryan's a smart guy. He could hold his own against Biden.
understatement of the year!     understatement of the year!     understatement of the year!     understatement of the year!     understatement of the year!     understatement of the year!

We have a nominee for understatement of the year! 

I almost shot a mouthful of my drink against the screen reading that. 

[AmericanNation]

I think understatement is a good thing and it's often funny.  Chill.   

[AmericanNation]

guy in politics for maybe a dozen years vs a guy in politics for 40?

Guy who is a clownish buffoon, wrong on every foreign policy issue for 30+ years, and eating in dinners that have been closed for 20.
vs.
the guy with the best combination of intelligence, work ethic/morality, and speaking ability in Washington.     

[AmericanNation]

guy in politics for maybe a dozen years vs a guy in politics for 40?

Guy who is a clownish buffoon, wrong on every foreign policy issue for 30+ years, and eating in dinners that have been closed for 20.
vs.
the guy with the best combination of intelligence, work ethic/morality, and speaking ability in Washington.     

I agree with your comments about Biden but do not believe Ryan is a good speaker at all...that is one of his weaknesses

well it starts with
1) being really really smart
which leads to
2) being able to answer anything off the top of his head better than anyone
which leads to
3)being the master of compressing complex thoughts/things/numbers into perfect soundbites.
which means
4) He is great on TV and can do a million interviews with no problem.
5)He is a happy optimistic guy despite having the most realistic understanding of gathering calamities.  He can bash an opponent with that advantage anytime he wants.   

I mean he never stumbles on words or numbers, the guy is smooth and concise, packing every sentence with information.  How is that a weakness?

[AmericanNation]

No gravitas... you could tell me he is competing for a college debate team and I would believe you. He looks like a twig and sounds like his jewels haven't yet dropped

OK, you think he is too young.  I can see that, weakness at speaking is the opposite of reality though.  The guy has "jewels" enough to be the first/only guy to put a serious plan on the table.  Budget chairman carries some gravitas IMO.     

[AmericanNation]

No gravitas... you could tell me he is competing for a college debate team and I would believe you. He looks like a twig and sounds like his jewels haven't yet dropped

OK, you think he is too young.  I can see that, weakness at speaking is the opposite of reality though.  The guy has "jewels" enough to be the first/only guy to put a serious plan on the table.  Budget chairman carries some gravitas IMO.     

Don't get me wrong- I like Ryan and would be happy if he is named VP. I simply don't believe most would agree with you that he is a great speaker

I could see people interpreting "great speaker" differently.  He has great speaking skills (as I outlined).  He isn't a motivational, rabble rousing, shoot thrills up your leg guy very often because he's busy being serious.  He does have the ability to be inspirational, but I admit he can't pull that off all the time.     

[AmericanNation]

Jon Karl: Shortlist down to Pawlenty/Portman/Ryan.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/OTUS/jonathan-karls-list-vp-field-august-portman-pawlenty-ryan/story?id=16354225#.UBk1-mFfFQJ

http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/video/mitt-romney-set-pick-vice-president-2012-election-16902991

Portman  = safe/"smart"
Pawlenty = safe/vanilla
Ryan        = perfect guy to be VP/ slight risk

I buy that that is actually the top tier.   

[AmericanNation]

I don't quite understand why anyone thinks Ryan on the ticket will cost Romney with seniors.  Ryan's Medicare proposals don't actually affect seniors and his social security reforms are distant enough- having been dropped from both iterations of his budget- that they're unlikely to get the bulk of the attention.  Plus, did anyone watch any of the townhalls Ryan held during his time in the sun?  They were full to the brim with seniors.  Ryan and Romney are going to have to sell the working age population, not seniors.  PPP's Wisconsin poll is instructive.  By himself, Romney loses the 65+ cohort 50-43.  With Walker, he loses it 49-43.  With Ryan, he loses it 48-44.  Romney's favorables were 42-49 with the 65+.  Ryan's were 43-42.  Walker's 49-47.  Obama's 50-47.  Florida's in no danger with Ryan on the ticket, anymore than it was when Rubio ran on similar reforms.  In an extended campaign, seniors realize that nothing Republicans are proposing actually affects them.  

True.  
If Ryan isn't the VP, the Dems will lie and confuse the issue AND team Romney won't crush that crap with the truth because they won't focus on it correctly.

If he is the VP, the Dems will lie and confuse the issue AND team Romney will crush them with the truth because Ryan is the best spokesman/ defender of his/Romney's plan.    

Ryan is probably the best choice with seniors.  

As far as tea leaves go, on primary nights Ann Romney introduced Mitt for every victory speech I can remember except Wisconsin... where Ryan did the honors.  

[AmericanNation]

A quick question, but in the event he was picked, would Ryan be able to run simultaneously for VP and reelection to the House?

Yea, we covered this a while ago.  Ryan's office confirmed over the phone that it is legal to do so in Wisconsin (and that they only know this because they looked into it after being asked many times).  Many states have some type of "LBJ" law as they're commonly called.   

[AmericanNation]

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Did he just rewrite my posts on this forum from 5 months ago?  

[AmericanNation]

Frankly I'm not convinced Ryan shakes things up as much as Romney thinks he does for purposes of the campaign, but I'm fundamentally more concerned about the prospect of him holding high office than the other main contenders.

Ryan is the best elected official I have ever seen at articulating serious things (plans, situations, facts, numbers, etc) and counter punching criticism of his position without ever making a mistake (of fact, or gaff, etc).  He never even stumbles on a word while retabulating federal budgets off the top of his head in the middle of a soundbite.  He is so confidence inspiring because he could probably do anything Romney would ask of him extremely well.  Whereas Obama has a guy (Biden) who will mess up the simplest task most of the time.  

I think things will be quite shaken up with a Ryan pick because I can't see the Media or the Democrats laying off the bait of criticizing him.  They will for sure and they will end up looking really foolish after the responses.  ...That is a textbook definition of shakeup (beating up the opposing party and any negative press)      

[AmericanNation]

Maybe the bus tour is for the purpose of telling some of the VP prospects in their home states that they're off the short list.  For example, when Romney is at a campaign stop in Virginia, he says:

"Bob McDonnell....Is Governor McDonnell here?  There you are Governor, please come up to the podium with me.  Isn't he a fantastic governor, Virginia?"  [cheers erupt from the crowd]

"Now Governor, I just wanted to tell you in front of all of these constituents of yours, and all of these news cameras, that you are........NOT going to be my running mate."  [The smile on McDonnell's face slowly fades, and his eyes well up with tears.]

Then he does the same in Florida with Rubio and in Ohio with Portman.  

The tribe has spoken, now place your extinguished torch over there and leave VP island.

[AmericanNation]

Time to look for veep clues in Mitt Romney's grocery list:

http://www.mercurynews.com/presidentelect/ci_21252766/cart-maybe-hint-about-romneys-pick

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WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?

...People came over.  Apparently Romney eats like a wasp and drinks like a mormon, which is one notch above a starvation diet in my book.   

[AmericanNation]

Paul Ryan is a P90xer ...he probably would be a yogurt guy.  He doesn't imbibe anything unhealthy outside of a cup of coffee in the mourning. 

[AmericanNation]

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...So he turned down Portman's job.  I didn't know that. 

[AmericanNation]

She's celebrated and beloved mainly by people who don't study literature and have terrible taste in it. I don't even understand her political and ideological value when there are plenty of genuinely talented libertarian genre fiction authors out there and have been for most of the recent past.

What this indicates about Ryan's political beliefs most people already knew. What it indicates about his taste in literature and culture is worrying.

Why does "a certain crowd" always say this line.  Atlas isn't that well 'written'(for entertainment and literary purposes), but the lessons in it are constructed fantastically.  I never would have chosen the medium, but you remember certain scenes forever.  It is very effective and important writing.  I think people hate it because they either don't like or don't understand the harm they cause... Nobody 'wants' to acknowledge something like that.  It's like saying people who appreciate the lessons of the Bible have no taste in literature.  The value of an informative lesson IS THE LESSON, not how artsy it's written or how good it makes you feel.             

[AmericanNation]

Imagine the scene at the convention when Scott Walker announces the next VP of the US, his good friend: Paul Ryan! 

[AmericanNation]

Jindal in CO on Thursday
Portman was in CO on Wednesday, but not sure about the rest of the week

...and Ryan is on vacation in CO.  Interesting coincidence.  

Looking at the map, I think Ryan "compliments" or boosts the ticket in:
1)Wisconsin
2)Iowa
3)New Hampshire
4)Colorado
*Ohio and Michigan are tough calls because dems might succeed in demonizing regardless of who the VP is, so Ryan's bump may well be negated/irrelevant there.

   

[AmericanNation]

Adds something to the discourse = Selecting a guy who grew up in a town of 488 people in South Dakota, proving that anybody can succeed in America. Romney desperately needs somebody with a humble background to defend him against the unfair portrayal being made by Team Obama.

Romney was successful in business and is not the best politician in the world, but he is a good, normal guy who is trying to become president while facing one of the best politicians and political teams in recent history. He is in touch with the problems facing ordinary Americans. His veep needs to effectively get this message across the Midwest. Only an authentic, humble Midwesterner can do it. If Thune can't do it, nobody can. Let's not forget that Thune is the guy who defeated Daschle. He is exceptional at retail politicking, which could make the difference across the Midwest.

Side benefit I forgot to mention: He shores up support among Evangelicals (quietly, of course).

When you think about it, Thune is all you could possibly want from a running mate in this election with this candidate.

I'd say there's a 75% probability of the choice being Thune, a 20% probability of it being Pawlenty, a 4% probability of it being Ryan, and a 1% probability of it being somebody else.

Ryan is all those things except evangelical.