Romney's chances in Wisconsin

[AmericanNation]

Walker and Obama currently have the middle in the state.  After Walker wins he could start working to move 'his' middle toward Romney, something he's been to busy to do lately.  Then, it comes down to turnout.  Wisconsin might have the best state GOP in the country right now, hence Reince Priebus's promotion to RNC chair.  Look at the local star power the GOP has.  Walker, Ryan, Johnson, Thompson(probably) vs Nobody on the dem side.  People have seen the dark underside of democrat politics for the last year and a half and may punish them.  The WisDems need to go into the wilderness for a while.     

Fox Valley leans GOP, you may see a trend toward 'leans slightly less GOP'  ...whatever. 

Dane County isn't out growing the combined WOW counties or the rest of the state.  Waukesha basically counterweights Dane by itself.  The WOW's will grow to counterweight Dane AND Milwaukee county eventually.  The rest of the state is lean to strong GOP.

If Romney runs 51% nationally, than Wisconsin is likely in the Romney column.             

[AmericanNation]

C'mon people, let's put some numbers out there.  Obama won Wisconsin by more than 14 points in 2008.  I say this year he loses by more than 2.

...16 points? Really?

Please, give us your projection for the election. I'm sure we'd all love to see your reasoning.

I don't think you understand that 2008 has almost zero relevance to 2012 in a state like Wisconsin.  It's basically a 50/50 state that can swing 2% either way.  Tidal wave climates make some weird things happen.  I see zero chance of Obama having another tidal wave at his back.     

[AmericanNation]

C'mon people, let's put some numbers out there.  Obama won Wisconsin by more than 14 points in 2008.  I say this year he loses by more than 2.

...16 points? Really?

Please, give us your projection for the election. I'm sure we'd all love to see your reasoning.

I don't think you understand that 2008 has almost zero relevance to 2012 in a state like Wisconsin.  It's basically a 50/50 state that can swing 2% either way.  Tidal wave climates make some weird things happen.  I see zero chance of Obama having another tidal wave at his back.    

Yes, that's why Bush narrowly took it in '04.

He basically did.  

Infamous incidents of:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2005-01-24-tires-slashed_x.htm
 Gwen Moore's Son and other dems slashing the tires of 25 GOP vans on election day 2004
--Vote suppression

http://rnla.org/blogs/blogs/public/archive/2011/11/21/smokes-for-votes-then-cigs-for-sigs-now.aspx
Many including a New York Millionaire democrat operative caught bribing people to vote in exchange for cigarettes in 2004
-- electioneering

There were a lot of incidents of mentally unaware seniors magically voting via absentee ballot despite not being able to spell their name.      

A dozen college students admitted to voting twice.  

Voting drives packed the rolls with thousands of fake names.    
--Vote fraud

That was all proved criminally.  Some other fraud may have occurred that benefited the dems considering how easy it is to do it without getting caught and they got caught so often.      

Needless to say, the proved criminal activity on the dem side combined with the 0.4% or 11,000 votes Kerry "won" by, did not inspire confidence in the integrity of the election.      
 

[AmericanNation]

http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confidential/exit-poll-wi-play-november/582041

Michael Barone and I think it's pretty obvious Wisconsin is in play and the exit polls show Romney is even with Obama despite zero campaigning.