The Independent vote.

[George W. Bush]

This is how the Independents in each state voted. Montana was 50-50

[Redefeatbush04]

Nebraskas Independents went for kerry? Hmm.....

[George W. Bush]

yea i know, Its strange.

[Joe Republic]

I notice that two of the important swing states (OH and FL) that went for Bush had more independent votes for Kerry.

I take it therefore that Republican voter registration/turnout was higher than Democratic equivalents AND the majority of independent voters combined in those states?  I don't know the numbers exactly and I'm too lazy right now to find out myself.

Oh, by the way, good work!

[Horus]

Were it not for Nebraska and to a lesser extent Nevada, the map would make perfect sense.

Very interesting.

[Alcon]

Very interesting! Your data is a bit inaccurate, though, according to CNN's site - mostly tiny, insignificant map-shading errors. I corrected it, shaded it, and also did a map for the moderates:

Independents


Moderates


Montana was tied at >40% for the first map.

Also, here is a map of the independent vs. moderate vote:




In red-marked states, Kerry did better among independents than he did among moderates. Nevada was a tie.

EDIT: Corrected first map to reflect inversion of Wyoming numbers.

[A18]

"Moderate" is another term for "Democrat." People don't seem to understand this.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

"Moderate" is another term for "Democrat." People don't seem to understand this.

"Extremist" is another term for "Republican".

[Democratic Hawk]

Very interesting! Your data is a bit inaccurate, though, according to CNN's site - mostly tiny, insignificant map-shading errors. I corrected it, shaded it, and also did a map for the moderates:

Independents


Moderates


Montana was tied at >40% for the first map.

Also, here is a map of the independent vs. moderate vote:




In red-marked states, Kerry did better among independents than he did among moderates. Nevada was a tie.

The fact that a liberal like Kerry won the support of most moderates nationally and on a state-by-state basis, this should bode well for us Democrats in the event of selecting a bona fide moderate Democratic candidate (i.e. one who the GOP can't stigmatise as a liberal) in 2008

Dave

[KEmperor]

The so called "moderates" are self-described.  I find that suspect.  How many people go around calling themselves extremists?

[angus]

what is a moderate?  and what is an independent?  I assume the post by phillip was a joke, but I'm curious.  How are they defined here?  However they're defined, it seems as though Kerry did better among both groups.  Given the three-million plus vote difference, that together with the fact that Kerry seems to have won most of the swing vote, then I'd say that just about makes Rove a maestro.  You boys need to find a brain like his.  level the playing field a bit.  keep things interesting.

[George W. Bush]

Very interesting! Your data is a bit inaccurate, though, according to CNN's site - mostly tiny, insignificant map-shading errors. I corrected it, shaded it, and also did a map for the moderates:

Independents


Moderates


Montana was tied at >40% for the first map.

Also, here is a map of the independent vs. moderate vote:




In red-marked states, Kerry did better among independents than he did among moderates. Nevada was a tie.

You are right about Nevada, Kerry won that in the Independent vote, But not Wyoming.

[kwab]

"Moderate" is another term for "Democrat." People don't seem to understand this.

"Extremist" is another term for "Republican".

Anyways....

[they don't love you like i love you]

The so called "moderates" are self-described.  I find that suspect.  How many people go around calling themselves extremists?

*raises hand*

[YRABNNRM]

"Moderate" is another term for "Democrat." People don't seem to understand this.

That's perhaps the most stupid thing you have said.

[Hitchabrut]

Democrats consider Bill Clinton a moderate and Joe Lieberman a conservative. Therefore, Democrats believe that if they aren't socialist, then they must be moderate.

[Alcon]

Democrats consider Bill Clinton a moderate and Joe Lieberman a conservative. Therefore, Democrats believe that if they aren't socialist, then they must be moderate.

Lieberman isn't a conservative, just a left-leaning populist. Clinton is, too, for that matter.

[Platypus]

If you had the Australian system of compulsory preferential voting, Gore would've won in 2000 and presuming for some reason he didn't, Kerry would have won in 2004

[opebo]

"Moderate" is another term for "Democrat." People don't seem to understand this.

Certainly it is true that a majority of self-described moderates will vote Democrat - the Democrat Party is much more moderate than the Republican.  It is a moderate center-right party as opposed to the extreme right Republicans.

[Alcon]

Opebo, by U.S. standards, people consider "moderate" to be inbetween the two political parties, no matter how much you'd like to pretend people see the Democrats as center-right.

I do not think moderates are per se Democrats. I just feel that Bush brought out the Republicans and managed to make "liberal" into a dirty word. This resulted in an increase in the number of self-indentified conservatives and an increase in the number of center-left Democrats identifying themselves as moderates instead of liberals.

I do not have numbers to support this; it is rather just a suspicion.

[Colin]

If you had the Australian system of compulsory preferential voting, Gore would've won in 2000 and presuming for some reason he didn't, Kerry would have won in 2004

But your also forgetting that under a IRV system more people would vote for third parties and might have their vote go towards a person who has views that are very different from theirs.

[Platypus]

Their preferences would still have flowed to kerry and Bush or Gore and Bush in these last two elections. What would be really interesting is 1992, with compulsory preferential voting.