CA-Field Poll: Death Penalty abolition leads by 7 in new poll

[Tender Branson]

http://www.sacbee.com/2012/11/02/4956183/field-poll-shows-measure-to-end.html

[morgieb]

OH PLEASE LET THIS PASS!

[Tender Branson]

OH PLEASE LET THIS PASS!

Well, I'd rather see it ahead by 10, because there could be a Deadley Effect, similar to the Gaydley Effect that we saw in previous years ahead of SSM referendums.

[Sbane]

I still highly doubt this passes, because I know how Southern California votes. The good news is that the three strikes reform measure will likely pass. That would save the state more money.

[Franzl]

I still highly doubt this passes, because I know how Southern California votes. The good news is that the three strikes reform measure will likely pass. That would save the state more money.

Why is it so difficult to get Californians to be reasonable in referenda?

[minionofmidas]

Race subsamples look odd.

[Simfan34]

Race subsamples look odd.

I don't think so- it disproportionately affects disadvantaged minorities, many of whom probably "know someone who knows someone who was executed", or just generally feel that their kin are unfairly targeted in executions. Hispanics and blacks being more opposed to the death penalty makes perfect sense.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Race subsamples look odd.

I don't think so- it disproportionately affects disadvantaged minorities, many of whom probably "know someone who knows someone who was executed", or just generally feel that their kin are unfairly targeted in executions. Hispanics and blacks being more opposed to the death penalty makes perfect sense.

Yeah. This is one area where the idea that minorities tend to be 'socially conservative' is just completely untrue.

[minionofmidas]

Race subsamples look odd.

I don't think so- it disproportionately affects disadvantaged minorities, many of whom probably "know someone who knows someone who was executed", or just generally feel that their kin are unfairly targeted in executions. Hispanics and blacks being more opposed to the death penalty makes perfect sense.

Yeah. This is one area where the idea that minorities tend to be 'socially conservative' is just completely untrue.

The tendency of such polls has been to show fairly high death penalty support among Hispanics.
In California with its Bay Area Libruls, it's usually higher than among Whites. IIRC it was in the last Field Poll.

[YL]

Looks promising...

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I've largely been pro-death penalty all my life, but this vote really made me have to sit down and reconsider my views. After considering the facts (namely, the horrid fact that we've killed a lot of innocent people), I decided to vote against the death penalty.

[politicallefty]

This poll does look good, but I'm not holding my breath. California voters have a nasty habit of voting against common sense on propositions and defying the state's outward liberal appearance. Philosophical and moral arguments aside, California's death penalty is a complete disaster and total waste of money. I'll remain very cautiously optimistic on this one for now.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

OK, there's officially a Bradley effect where some people don't admit to wanting the state to be able to murder people.

[YL]

I think that if I hadn't seen that poll I'd have been quite pleased that it came so close, though tempered by a "so near but yet so far" feeling.

Maybe in 2016...

[Sbane]

I still highly doubt this passes, because I know how Southern California votes. The good news is that the three strikes reform measure will likely pass. That would save the state more money.

Why is it so difficult to get Californians to be reasonable in referenda?

Because Southern California outside of a certain slice of Los Angeles county is basically socially conservative. Although I think Marijuana legalization would have passed this year (I am starting to think the defeat in 2010 had a good bit to do with the wording), it would have been by a lower margin than you saw in Washington and Colorado.

[Tender Branson]

OH PLEASE LET THIS PASS!

Well, I'd rather see it ahead by 10, because there could be a Deadley Effect, similar to the Gaydley Effect that we saw in previous years ahead of SSM referendums.

Hmm ...